Welcome to another installment of the CW Renew/Cancel columns, and while we are ringing in the new year with prediction upgrades, there is one show in particular that just ended up having to be the one to end up in the headline. Here are the predictions.
Show
|
Prediction
|
All American
|
Certain Renewal
|
Batwoman
|
Certain Renewal
|
Black Lightning
|
Certain Renewal
|
Dynasty
|
Certain Renewal
|
Legacies
|
Certain Renewal
|
Riverdale
|
Certain Renewal
|
Supergirl
|
Certain Renewal
|
The Flash
|
Certain Renewal
|
Charmed
|
Likely Renewal
|
Nancy Drew
|
Likely Renewal
|
DC’s Legends of Tomorrow
|
Premiering January 21
|
Katy Keene
|
Premiering February 6
|
Roswell, New Mexico
|
Premiering March 16
|
In the Dark
|
Summer
|
Arrow
|
Final Season
|
Supernatural
|
Final Season
|
The 100
|
Final Season
|
Riverdale: As it has been glaringly obvious, Riverdale remains certain to be renewed. But the CW has released the midseason schedule and Katy Keene is getting the Thursday 8pm slot instead of the Wednesday 9pm slot as previously predicted, which means Supernatural is getting the Monday 8pm timeslot starting March 16 for the final episodes. I don't know about you, but this signals a lack of confidence in Riverdale as a lead-in. Outside of Friday, Wednesday has been the lowest rated night on average since the second week of the CW season with Riverdale averaging a 0.25 and Nancy Drew a 0.17. The majority of people in the poll says that Riverdale won't have a final season next season, while the second place option says that Riverdale will get the final season treatment. The rest predicted that Riverdale will be canceled. Here's why I do not think a cancelation will happen. Take a peek at the
Drama Scorecard. The ratings for every WB show outside of The Flash, Batwoman, and Supernatural are within a tenth of each other in the 0.2 range. Things are getting dicey at the CW. If CW decides that a change is needed, especially with Viacom merging with CBS and Warner Bros. merging with AT&T, does a show that averages consistent 0.2s need to be renewed? That probably won't work for ViacomCBS's bottom line or WarnerMedia's. Riverdale's ratings are also close to or at the median CW rating. And the CW is averaging a 0.26 in the key demo rating this season, which is down quite a bit from last season. CW cannot realistically cancel every 0.2 WB show, but they can't renew everything either. As far as Riverdale's concerned, that 0.25 warrants either a move to Friday or a move back to 9pm, and I suspect they'll take the latter option next season. They can't do a Friday move unless they cancel either Charmed (unlikely) or Dynasty (even more unlikely as the CW has not canceled a show after three seasons since Veronica Mars). Dynasty will get renewed for a fourth season even if ratings reach the Blutarsky. Now that I've done this long spiel, I'll get to the other two shows.
Batwoman and Legacies: Batwoman and Legacies earn upgrades to certain to be renewed for many reasons. For one thing, Batwoman is the #2 show on the CW and has a full season order. It stabilized in the ratings and got a new series high with the Crisis on Infinite Earths crossover. With Legacies, the ratings have been stable for quite some time in the 0.23-0.26 range. Legacies is also averaging near the CW median. For both shows, I don't expect either of them to get canceled this season. Like I said with Riverdale, the CW cannot cancel every WB show in the 0.2 range.
For all the shows mentioned, there are likely to be nonlinear factors involved just like with every season. They just won't give all the public details and reasons why.
With the midseason shows, DC's Legends of Tomorrow will premiere first. You'll get a prediction on that, as with Katy Keene and Roswell, New Mexico. But you won't likely get a prediction for In the Dark, since the majority of the episodes run into summer. For chart purposes, In the Dark is marked as a summer show.
What do you think about the predictions? Sound off in the comments below!
