ABC Renew/Cancel Week 10: A Positive Shift for Shifting Gears

After a week off, the ABC Renew/Cancel returns this week with an updated prediction, and one last look at a long-running show before it enters a hiatus.

Certain Cancellation:
N/A

Likely Cancellation:
The Golden Bachelor (0.19, 0.16-0.28)

Leans Cancellation:
N/A

Leans Renewal:
N/A

Likely Renewal:

9-1-1 (0.33, 0.30-0.35)

9-1-1: Nashville (0.25, 0.20-0.29)

Celebrity Wheel of Fortune (0.23, 0.15-0.31)

Grey's Anatomy (0.20, 0.13-0.27)

Shark Tank (0.15, 0.11-0.20)

Shifting Gears (0.34, 0.31-0.38)

Certain Renewal:

20/20 (0.17, 0.12-0.20)

Abbott Elementary (0.32, 0.27-0.38)

America's Funniest Home Videos (0.28, 0.25-0.29)

Dancing with the Stars (1.26, 1.02-1.38)

High Potential (0.34, 0.28-0.42)

Coming Soon:

American Idol

The Bachelorette

Celebrity Jeopardy!

The Great Christmas Light Fight

RJ Decker

The Rookie

Scrubs

Will Trent

Shifting Gears: On an ABC schedule with just six scripted shows and very few non-established shows, Shiting Gears was pretty much the closest thing to a "bubble" show on the network. Despite solid ratings, ABC ordered just ten episodes of this sitcom to start the season out, later upping the order to thirteen and capping it there. While scripted show orders have been largely reduced in recent years, a thirteen episode still stands out as low for a successful second-season show that doesn't need to be capped for storyline purposes (it's a family sitcom, after all) and has no other obviously-apparent reason for the show's producers or stars to request a short order, either. It seems to be a network decision, largely to fit in a new revival of Scrubs, with the orders of the two shows matching up almost perfectly with Abbott Elementary. That helps explain the decision, as it's not like they're opting to cap it without a replacement, and there's not really a sensible way to air three comedies (they've done it before, and it was a disaster). I they had replaced it with repeats (as NBC did last season), then I'd probably consider it a goner even with strong ratings. But there is an explanation for it, and that solves one of my concerns about the show. The other concern was that the show wouldn't remain consistent, as Deadline had reported that the show's ratings had dropped precipitously from the start of season one to the end. As such, it was hard to tell the show's true strength. With nearly half its episodes aired at this point, it remains a strong performer. It's the #1 scripted show on ABC in the demo in live+same-day ratings, narrowly outpacing High Potential. It's also a top twenty show in the most recently-released seven-day multiplatform viewing, ranking fifth among ABC shows. It's ahead of the demo hit Abbott Elementary and the long-running medical drama Grey's Anatomy, and just a few hundred thousand viewers behind 9-1-1: Lone Star, so it looks pretty solid in that regard. So even if it has dipped from its strong early start last year, it's still doing quite well compared to the rest of TV. It's increasingly difficult to imagine that ABC will cancel the show, even if its streaming performance definitely does leave something to be desired. Barring a surprise cancellation spurred by cost troubles or the lack of schedule space, Shifting Gears will be fine this season. It's a LIKELY RENEWAL.

Grey's Anatomy: In our last update, I didn't get a chance to discuss Grey's Anatomy's midseason finale ratings, but I feel I have to address them, since they were pretty jarring. After an OK season for Grey's ratings-wise, it entered a hiatus on an absolute bum note. With just a 0.13, the log-running hit tumbled to a new series low, having already hit a series low of 0.17 just the week before. That 0.13 is less than half its premiere rating, and the lowest rating of any ABC scripted show this season. Only Shark Tank has dropped lower this season, but that show is far less expensive. So is Grey's Anatomy in trouble? No, no it's not. I maintain that Grey's Anatomy is much closer to the end than the beginning, and may well end by the close of this decade, but on (horrific, yes) datapoint is not going to derail ABC's plans. I've explained it before, but the true value of Grey's is in its streaming performance and its international sales. It's already at 10 PM, so ratings expectations are lower, and these poor performances we're seeing from it aren't hurting any other ABC shows airing behind it, only hurting the local affiliates. While their affiliates probably aren't thrilled to only have a 0.1 lead-in from Grey's Anatomy, they're probably going to have to deal with it for years to come. Grey's is still doing fairly well in multiplatform ratings (though it is their least-watched scripted show on the fall lineup), and it's the only current ABC series with a Netflix deal, and those previous seasons continue to be highly-watched. The show can often be found near the top of Nielsen's weekly streaming ratings for acquired programs. It is a cash cow for ABC, even in this weakened state. While it may be jarring to see a once-dominant show be a weak ratings link on the schedule, it's still valuable. It won't be canceled without a chance to conclude on it own terms, and I imagine that'll be announced well in advance. It remains a LIKELY RENEWAL.

Interactive Schedule:

The TV Ratings Guide	8:00	8:30	9:00	10:00
Mon	Monday Night Football
Tues	Dancing with the Stars			High Potential
Wed	Shifting Gears	Abbott Elementary	The Golden Bachelor	Shark Tank
Thurs	9-1-1		9-1-1: Nashville	Grey's Anatomy
Fri	Celebrity Wheel of Fortune		20/20
Sat	Saturday Night Football
Sun	The Wonderful World of Disney