The ABC Renew/Cancel finally gets off to its official start, as ABC brings its comedy block back. One show was renewed before it even got an in-season prediction, while the other two shows' fates still hang in the balance. Keep reading for my thoughts on the future of those shows.
Certain Cancellation:
N/A
Likely Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Renewal:
The Conners (0.41)
Not Dead Yet (0.32)
Already Canceled/Final Season:
The Good Doctor
Station 19
Already Renewed:
Abbott Elementary (0.48)
Coming Soon:
9-1-1
Grey's Anatomy
The Rookie
Will Trent
Not Dead Yet: The first season of Not Dead Yet had its ups and downs, having started with a relatively solid showing and having a few more decent results after that, while also basically bombing in numerous later episodes. Its renewal was pretty questionable, and it seemed to be at least slightly weaker than the other occupant of the 9:30 slot last season, Home Economics. And yet, Not Dead Yet was the show that survived, and Home Economics went into foreclosure. Having hit a 0.18 in the key demo for its finale, expectations were pretty low for the show as it returned from an eight-month break, but it didn't perform that badly, with a 0.32 in between a 0.41 from The Conners and a 0.48 from Abbott Elementary. Could ABC have done better in that slot? Probably. However, Not Dead Yet has shown that it has the potential to do much worse than that, so ABC is probably pretty content with it returning with a rating north of its previous season average. I don't know if that'll be enough for it to be renewed, especially since this is likely going to be the highpoint of its season, but as of now, I think it's more likely to be renewed than not. A third season of Not Dead Yet, even a short one a la Home Economics, would allow for ABC to continue with a two-hour comedy block next season without having to launch two new comedies at the same time, which is something networks have been working to avoid more and more as of late. They clearly saw enough in Not Dead Yet to hold onto it for this season, and I don't see why they'd cancel it now when it's doing about the same, when it can be used to fill a hole in the lineup. It LEANS RENEWAL for now despite being the clear weakest link in the lineup.
The Conners: After rating as ABC's #1 show last season alongside Abbott Elementary, The Conners returned a solid amount below Abbott last week, with a 0.41. That's still a solid showing, but it's a clear step down from where it was last season, and it's likely to drop further from here. The cast of the show is expensive, due to the annual contract renegotiations, though those costs are forked by production studio Werner. Still, the show is one of the rare broadcast shows to receive a syndication deal in recent years (including, bizarrely, a run on CW), meaning it does have upside to it beyond its first-run ratings strength. As an unowned show, ABC doesn't make anything from these deals, but it does make it more likely that the studio will be willing to negotiate with ABC in order to keep the show on the air for longer. With the show likely to remain one of ABC's highest-rated shows this season, I expect that they'll want to keep it going as well, even as the ratings decline and some cast member publicly speculate about the show ending. It LEANS RENEWAL.
Abbott Elementary: I said last week in my pre-season renew/cancel that Abbott Elementary was the safest show on ABC, and that was proven true less than a week later, when ABC announced at their TCA event that their highest-rated scripted series of last season would indeed be renewed for a fourth season, just days after the third season premiered. Though the speed of the renewal came as something of a surprise, the renewal was never in doubt, and it was a correct prediction for me.
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!
