Summer Renew/Cancel Predictions - August 7: Mr. Robinson is a Toss-Up

Hi! In case this is your first time reading my summer renew/cancel predictions post, I'm Hunter and I will be posting these predictions each weekend this summer, covering the summer shows on the five major broadcast networks. This is week eight, and this week included premieres of two new comedies, Significant Mother on the CW and Mr. Robinson on NBC. Here are the summer shows divided into categories, and then my in-detail thoughts on a few of them. Enjoy!

Format for predictions:
Show title (network) (average adults 18-49 rating)

Certain to be Canceled
The Astronaut Wives Club (ABC) (0.8)
Dates (CW) (0.1)
Golan the Insatiable (FOX) (0.5)
The Whispers (ABC) (0.9)

Will Likely be Canceled
Mistresses (ABC) (0.8)
Rookie Blue (ABC) (0.7)

Extant (CBS) (0.7)
Mr. Robinson (NBC) (1.1)
Significant Mother (CW) (0.3)

Will Likely be Renewed

Certain to be Renewed
Under the Dome (CBS) (1.1)
Zoo (CBS) (1.1)

Fate Determined
A.D.: The Bible Continues (NBC) CANCELED
American Odyssey (NBC) CANCELED
Aquarius (NBC) RENEWED
Beauty and the Beast (CW) RENEWED
Wayward Pines (FOX) CANCELED
Welcome to Sweden (NBC) CANCELED

Yet to Premiere
The Carmichael Show (NBC)

Mr. Robinson premiered this week to a 1.2, followed by a 1.0. Its lead-in of an America's Got Talent special, World's Got Talent, got a 1.4. That rating is looking decent enough for NBC to renew the show, but I want to wait and see how it does next week before calling it anything other than a toss-up. Also, if The Carmichael show does significantly better, NBC will most likely cancel Mr. Robinson. So, right now, it's more of a let's-wait-and-see.

I also haven't made a real decision on Significant Mother yet. It will be a tricky one to predict because we don't really know what kind of ratings the CW is looking for. The only comparison is last summer's Backpackers and Seed, both of which were canceled after two episodes. In week one of Backpackers and Seed, Backpackers premiered to a 0.2 at 8:30 following an episode of Whose Line that got a 0.5. Seed also got a 0.2 at 9:30, following a repeat of Whose Line that got a 0.2. The next week, Seed again got a 0.2, this time at 9:00 following an 8:30 repeat of Whose Line that got a 0.6 rating. Backpackers got a 0.1 at 9:30. After this, both series were canceled. Significant Mother got a 0.3, following an episode of Whose Line that got a 0,4. That's better than last year's comedies, but is it good enough? It's really hard to say, so for its first week I decided that if it got 0.0 or 0.1 I would put it at "certain to be canceled", if it got 0.2 I would put it at "will likely be canceled", if it got a 0.3, which it did, I would put it at "toss-up", if it got 0.4 I would put it at "will likely be renewed", and if it got 0.5 or higher I would put it at "certain to be renewed". The big question for next week is, can it hold that 0.3 rating, or will it fall? The big question overall is, how lead-in dependent is Significant Mother?

Extant hopped back up to a "toss-up" this week, which shouldn't be a surprise if you read last week's summer renew/cancel predictions and you saw that this week Extant aired two episodes and they both got a 0.8. Two weeks ago it looked dead, but Extant is definitely making its case this week. CBS could possibly have four scripted series next summer (not including any regular season series that didn't find their way onto the schedule).

Speaking of CBS's summer series, this week Under the Dome fell to a series low 0.8. This can easily be explained by last night's first GOP debate on FOX News airing from 9:00-11:00 on the east coast, which would mean its second hour was at the same time as Under the Dome. Even without this competition, hitting 0.8 still makes me believe that Under the Dome is certain to be renewed. Even though it is airing after Big Brother, it is going to have to hit 0.7 in a week where there isn't major competition or a holiday for me to move it down to "will likely be renewed", and I doubt that will happen.

Next week, at least one of the comedies that debuted this week will be moved from the "toss-up" category. Come back next week to see where to!

Do you agree or disagree with my predictions? How do you think the upcoming summer shows will do? Leave a comment with your thoughts!

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