Summer Renew/Cancel Predictions - August 27: The Carmichael Show is a Toss-Up

Hi! In case this is your first time reading my summer renew/cancel predictions post, I'm Hunter and I will be posting these predictions each weekend this summer, covering the summer shows on the five major broadcast networks. This is week eleven, which included the premiere of The Carmichael Show, the final summer show to premiere! Also this week, it was quietly confirmed that there will be no second season of The Astronaut Wives Club. Now, here are the summer shows divided into categories, and then my in-detail thoughts on a few of them. Enjoy!

Format for predictions:
Show title (network) (average adults 18-49 rating)

Certain to be Canceled
Dates (CW) (0.1)
Golan the Insatiable (FOX) (0.5)
The Whispers (ABC) (0.8)

Will Likely be Canceled
Extant (CBS) (0.7)
Rookie Blue (ABC) (0.7)
Significant Mother (CW) (0.2)

The Carmichael Show (NBC) (1.0)
Mistresses (ABC) (0.8)

Will Likely be Renewed
Mr. Robinson (NBC) (1.0)

Certain to be Renewed
Under the Dome (CBS) (1.0)
Zoo (CBS) (1.1)

Fate Determined
A.D.: The Bible Continues (NBC) CANCELED
American Odyssey (NBC) CANCELED
Aquarius (NBC) RENEWED
The Astronaut Wives Club (ABC) CANCELED
Beauty and the Beast (CW) RENEWED
Wayward Pines (FOX) CANCELED
Welcome to Sweden (NBC) CANCELED

This week The Carmichael Show premiered on NBC, taking over Mr. Robinson's timeslot. While it premiered worse than Mr. Robinson, with a 1.1 at 9:00 and 0.9 at 9:30 while Mr. Robinson got a 1.2 at 9:00 and 1.0 at 9:30, it wasn't that much worse, and since it got received much more positively than Mr. Robinson by most critics and viewers, it is very possible that it will go up or stay stable next week, so I will not make any decision on it this week. For now, it is a "toss-up". But, if it hits 0.8 next week, I will move it down to "will likely be canceled" for sure, and I might even do that if both episodes get 0.9.

There is a fairly decent chance that ABC will renew one show instead of none, I'd say about 67% chance they renew one and 33% they renew none. Previously I was very torn between if that one renewal would go to Mistresses or Rookie Blue. I thought there was about 33% chance Mistresses would be renewed, about 33% chance Rookie Blue would be renewed, and about 33% chance neither would be renewed. Since this week Rookie Blue fell to a low of 0.5, its chances of getting another season (airing on ABC) are very slim. While it is probably cheaper for ABC to air another season of Rookie Blue than produce and air another season of Mistresses, the 0.8 that Mistresses got this week looks a lot better than the 0.5 that Rookie Blue got, plus Mistresses is ABC-produced. This week, I have decided that Mistresses is a "toss-up". Next week the finales of Mistresses and Rookie Blue will air, and I will decide which direction I think that Mistresses will go. If Mistresses get another season however, expect it to be its last.

Extant went up to 0.8 this week. While an 0.8 is most likely considered by CBS to be good enough, this is just one after weeks of 0.7s. It is going to take a few more 0.8s for me to consider Extant a "toss-up" again.

Next week I will make decisions on Mistresses and probably The Carmichael Show. Come back next week to see where I put them!

Do you agree or disagree with my predictions? Leave a comment with your thoughts!

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