Ratings Premiere Prediction: Blood & Oil

Network: ABC
Time SlotSunday at 9
Competition: NFL Football, The Good Wife, The Last Man on Earth, Family Guy
Lead-in: Once Upon A Time
Lead-out: Quantico

How can you even predict series premieres? There is no concrete data you can go by when making your predictions. As such, this prediction will have to go solely based on hype and promotion. This is usually correlated to the ratings—for example, everyone knew based on this that Marvel's Agents of S,H,I.E.L.D, which saw massive promotion, would fare much better in 2013 than the little-promoted Trophy Wife or Lucky 7, both of which aired on the same night.

ABC had a great 2014-2015, and rivaled CBS for first place in scripted ratings (and probably would have one had The Big Bang Theory not have been so dang big). Compared to the six new shares on this year's fall schedule, and eight on the schedule the year before, ABC has a mere four new shows on the fall schedule.

Blood and Oil is getting its fair share of promotion, but I haven't heard much hype surrounding it unlike Quantico and The Muppets. Last season, Resurrection premiered there to a 2.5 Adults18-49 rating (and then dropped like a rock) out of Once Upon A Time's 3.7 for the premiere of its much-anticipated Frozen arc. That is a 67.57% retention rate. If the less-hyped Blood and Oil has the same retention out of my prediction for Once Upon A Time, it will premiere to a 1.6 rating. Some have suggested that Blood and Oil should swap tome slots with Quantico due to them thinking the latter has much more potential. But I think such a rating may just be in the ballpark. I can see it having a chance to stabilize right after its premiere a la previous time slot occupant Secrets & Lies, but it could just as easily go fractional by November sweeps. 

Range: 1.5-1.7 (the poll's range will be much larger)
Prediction: 1.6

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