Ratings Premiere Prediction: Once Upon A Time

Once Upon A Time

Network: ABC
Time SlotSunday at 8
Competition: NFL Football, Madam Secretary, The Simpsons, Brooklyn 9-9
Lead-in: TBA
Lead-out: Blood & Oil
2015 Finale: 1.8 A18-49
2014 Premiere: 3.5 A18-49 
2013 Premiere: 2.6  A18-49

Once Upon A Time premiered huge in fall 2014, thanks entirely to its story arc being related to the recent Disney princess blockbuster hit movie Frozen. However, it saw massive drops throughout the season, with its season finale almost 50% below its season premiere. Granted, very few people expected it to premiere so high, even despite knowledge of the story arc. I'm not sure what its lead-in for the upcoming fall 2015 premiere will be, but I can say that 1) it will not be a first-run of America's Funniest Home Videos, and 2) it will not be lead-in dependent on it.

Without a Frozen arc, I can almost guarantee that it will not premiere as high as a 3.5 again. However, its season premieres are typically the bright spot in its ratings. So while I don't see it going as high as a 3.5, I also don't see it going as low as a 1.8. The 2.2 it hit. For its midseason premiere may just be at the lower end of my range.

Range: 2.1-2.6
Prediction: 2.4

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