Ratings Premiere Predictions: Brooklyn 9-9 and The Last Man On Earth

Finally, the last Ratings Premiere Predictions segment about Sunday shows. I figured it would be fitting to post them on such a day. Here goes:

Brooklyn 9-9

Network: FOX
Time Slot: Sunday at 8:30
Competition: NFL Football, Madam Secretary, Once Upon A Time
Lead-in: The Simpsons
Lead-out: Family Guy
2015 Finale: 1.1 A18-49
2014 Premiere: 2.6 A18-49 
2013 Premiere: 2.6  A18-49 (Tuesday series premiere)

Ok, so Brooklyn 9-9 isn't exactly lead-in independent. Going into this season, FOX really had nothing else in the live-action comedy department with potential to grow, so naturally they gave it a time slot upgrade. But I also consider this time slot upgrade to be a downgrade for both Bob's Burgers, which was relegated to the 7pm hour, and Family Guy, which was cursed with a very incompatible lead-in in terms of style. Anyways, what looks to be a breakout sophomore hit in the fall turned into FOX's failed project by the spring. In the long run, The Simpsons did not help it out, and it didn't exactly help its fellow Sunday shows out either. Despite seeing some very high numbers in the fall, very few of them stuck around when it wasn't inflated by The Simpsons, which in turn was inflated by football. This can be seen that its season 2 is somehow down from its 2014, Tuesday finale, which had a 1.3 A18-49 rating.

But it has football in its favor again, so I can't be too pessimistic here, even though I think it would have been smarter to air Bob's Burgers, Bordertown, or even The Last Man On Earth (which does have potential to grow) here.

Range: 1.7-2.9
Prediction: 2.2

The Last Man On Earth

Network: FOX
Time SlotSunday at 9:30
Competition: NFL Football, The Good Wife, Blood and Oil, various cable
Lead-in: Family Guy
Lead-out: None
2015 S1 Finale: 1.4 A18-49
2015 S1 Premiere: 2.4 A18-49 

I truly think that The Last Man On Earth has a chance to grow into a hit next season. FOX is streaming the entire first season, which ended on a massive cliffhanger, online, and star Will Forte is expected by many to at least be nominated for an Emmy (something rare for a non-cable show not named Modern Family or The Big Bang Theory). Co-star Kristen Schaal is also expected by some to be a dark horse contender. Or they'll just give it to Julia Louis-Dreyfus again. 

Kristen Schaal stars on both The Last Man On Earth and Bob's Burgers, both of which have received terrible scheduling treatment this season. FOX announced that the former was to air after Family Guy, but in the first part of the series almost never gave it such a lead-in. Instead, they would double up on episodes, making it look like a burnoff. Many people did not expect much coming into the show, which could explain why everything in the first season was so fast-paced. But with it guaranteed that The Last Man On Earth is getting paired with Family Guy for its season premiere, I expect numbers much higher than it left us on. Despite having a harder time slot, I can see The Last Man On Earth edging out Brooklyn 9-9.

Range: 1.8-2.6
Prediction: 2.3

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