Premiere Ratings Predictions: America's Funniest Home Videos and World's Funniest Fails

The Ratings Junkie Tuesday, June 09, 2015
Hopefully, throughout the rest of the summer we will be doing a segment which features ratings predictions for the upcoming premieres. They will be grouped into categories for the sake of efficiency. We will start with two comedy reality shows: America's Funniest Home Videos, and World's Funniest Fails. 

America's Funniest Home Videos

Network: ABC
Time Slot: Sunday at 7
Competition: 60 Minutes, NFL Football/The OT or Bob's Burgers, NFL Pre-Game
Lead-in: None
Lead-out: Once Upon A Time
2015 Finale: 1.4 A18-49
2014 Premiere: 1.2 A18-49 against a 8.3 from football
2013 Premiere: 1.2 A18-49

Being such an old, reality filler, I have no reason to believe that America's Funniest Home Videos will fluctuate much from its usual numbers for the 2015 premiere.

Range: 1.0-1.4
Prediction: 1.2

World's Funniest Fails

Network: FOX
Time Slot: Friday at 9
Competition: Shark Tank, Hawaii 5-0, America's Next Top Model, Grimm
Lead-in: MasterChef Junior
Lead-out: None
2015 Finale: 0.8 A18-49
2015 Premiere (Season 1): 1.0 A18-19

It is hard for me to determine if the move from 8pm to 9pm will bemefit or hurt World's Funniest Fails in any way. For one, it now has a lead-in, but on the other hand it faces tougher reality (and really overall) competition. It was basically only renewed because it is cheap reality filler on a network where Gotham is the #2 show in A18-49, but only #18 overall. Will the lead-in support boost the show in any way, or will the stronger competition, especially from Shark Tank, bring this casual watch down?

Range: 0.7-1.1
Prediction: 0.9

It is also worth mentioning that the show has had a 0.8 A18-49 rating for each of its previous six airings. My prediction takes this into account, while also adding a tenth for the fact that it now has a lead-in. I was cautious not to give it too much because of the Shark Tank competition.

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