CBS Renew/Cancel Week 9: Has FBI Already Received Its Final Renewal? Plus, an Outlook on Fellow Franchise-Starters NCIS and Fire Country
This week on the CBS Renew/Cancel, an extra-special edition centering on the three franchise-starters currently on CBS's lineup, including the already-renewed FBI. Keep reading to see which is due for a prediction change and which is looking to be on the ice.
Prediction Key:
Week 9 Predictions:
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| Shows' 18-49 demo average, weekly peak performance on Paramount+, and MP+35 viewership are listed in parenthesis |
NCIS: NCIS is a very old show, on a network that's shown a clear preference for younger - and, going hand-in-hand, less expensive - shows. That's really its only liability, and it's probably going to do it in sooner than its ratings warrant. That won't be now, as NCIS remains the powerful flagship series in one of CBS's most important brands. Its spinoffs aren't doing nearly well enough to be seen as viable replacements for it, so CBS still needs it around for at least another season. It's still doing well in multiplatform viewing for its current episodes, with its premiere rating being strong enough for it to rank ninth across broadcast TV in MP+35 ratings, with older episodes also being a valuable asset on Paramount+. Given the value of the NCIS IP, and CBS's penchant for spinning off their top titles (particularly this series, which has spawned six spinoffs), it won't be much of a surprise to see NCIS joined by a new spinoff on the schedule next season, given that Origins and Sydney are both in clear danger after seasons of middling linear and multiplatorm ratings. When and if CBS graces us with another NCIS, they'll want the hit franchise-starter as a launchpad. NCIS is upgraded this week to a certain renewal, though it's a bit less safe than shows like Survivor and Tracker.
FBI: Speaking of acronym-titled franchise starters about government departments, FBI is in its second season of a three-season renewal. Its status on CBS has been heavily downgraded this season, as have its ratings. It's an outright linear ratings flop, averaging just a 0.23 in the demo. Only five scripted shows on CBS are performing worse, and four of those shows air at 10 PM, and two air on Friday. It was always destined to plunge in the ratings as it moved from its longtime home on Tuesdays and shifted to a 9 PM time slot after our years at 8, but 42% is dramatic. Its multiplatform ratings have also taken a hit. It averaged 10.6 million viewers in MP+35 ratings, and while we don't know its exact MP+35 average this season, it didn't even crack 10 million viewers for its season premiere in that metric. This show is clearly in decline, and many viewers that didn't stick with watching it live after it moved to a new night aren't bothering to catch up on DVR or Paramount+. The way things are going, this is likely not a case of if Season 9 will be the last, but rather when that will be announced. The question now turns to if CIA gets a proper launchpad out o an ailing FBI, and if it can be the FBI franchise replacement likely once hoped it would be. Regardless, FBI looks like it's on its way out soon, and with CBS clearly deprioritizing it this season, it would be a shock if it were renewed past season nine. Its performance this season would certainly warrant dropping that axe.
Fire Country: Last and least of franchise starters we have Fire Country, which is faltering at the worst possible time. It does seem to do OK on streaming, performing about on par with Sheriff Country there, but it is worth noting that it does have more episodes. to stream than Sheriff, so its performance on the Paramount+ is likely influenced by people watching old episodes. Its multiplatorm ratings are certainly concerning, in addition to the linear ratings slump. After averaging 9.6 million viewers in MP+35 this season, Fire Country wasn't even in the top twenty in Nielsen's recent MP+35 report. The top ten is all that's been publicly shared, and it encompassed all shows above ten million viewers. CBS noted that FBI, Georgie & Mandy, and 60 Minutes were their shows ranked between eleventh and twentieth. Last season, 8.9 million viewers was enough to crack the top twenty on broadcast in MP+35. The #10 show in this season's report came in a million viewers below last season's #10 show, so the #20 show was probably a bit under that 8.9 million viewers figure. If Fire Country debuted in the mid-to-high 8 million range, it's down about a million viewers from last season's average, and it's at least three million viewers behind the other Friday shows, including its own spinoff. Forbes has reported that a new "Country" drama, Rescue Country, is in early development. Given the middling season Fire Country has had, in which it's sunk 40% and has set a new series low four times in just seven episodes, one has to wonder if this is a plan to expand the Country universe or the beginning of plans to replace Fire Country, which is struggling to keep up with Sheriff Country. Fire Country still seems to be safe for now. It would be very unusual for a show to be canceled the same season it premieres a promising spinoff, especially after Fire was always solid before this season. It remains a certain renewal, but the future of CBS's Friday night remains a question mark, as we're let to wonder if it will become an all-Country night or if an existing show will end if Rescue Country really is on its way.
| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | The Neighborhood | DMV | FBI | Watson | |
| Tues | NCIS | NCIS: Origins | NCIS: Sydney | ||
| Wed | Survivor | The Amazing Race | |||
| Thurs | Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage | Ghosts | Matlock | Elsbeth | |
| Fri | Sheriff Country | Fire Country | Boston Blue | ||
| Sun | Tracker | The Road | Encores | ||































