First Week Peak: Three New Shows That Will Be Lucky To Reach #1

The Ratings Junkie

Welcome to First Week Peak, a column which discusses shows that are about to premiere on Netflix, Prime Video, Disney+, Paramount+, HBO Max, Peacock, Hulu, and/or Apple TV. Each discussion concludes with a prediction for the show's weekly peak performance on their respective streaming service's U.S. trending chart, including a reader poll. Final results can be found in our weekly What's Trending On Streaming column. Let us know what you think in the comments!

Ride or Die (Season 1)
Premieres: July 15 on Prime Video
Genre: Action adventure comedy

Synopsis: Best friends Debbie and Judith are forced on the run when Debbie discovers Judith isn't a forensic accountant, she's an international assassin! With a mysterious figure chasing them, and Debbie's husband involved in something deeply corrupt, it's a race against time and a road trip across Europe to untangle the truth and stay alive.

Going For It

Ride or Die is premiering after a week free of premieres for Prime Video, making its most recent competition a two-week old Elle. Elle appears unstoppable at the moment, but so did Off Campus, Every Year After, and Spider-Noir when Elle premiered.

Going Against It

Ride or Die is not based on any existing IP, which could make it harder to find an immediate audience. Ride or Die's 2.3 Attention Score (formerly known as a Buzz Score) also isn't particularly strong. It's hard to bet something of that caliber will knock Elle off its perch.

Daily Peak Prediction: #3 on Prime Video

Lucky (Season 1)
Premieres: July 15 on Apple TV
Genre: Crime thriller miniseries

Synopsis: Today, at the 2026 Apple TV Press Day, the stars and creators of "Lucky" took the stage to reveal the premiere date, teaser video and first look at the anticipated limited drama starring Golden Globe Award winner, SAG Award winner and Emmy Award nominee Anya Taylor-Joy, who also serves as executive producer. With a star-studded ensemble cast that also includes Annette Bening, Timothy Olyphant, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Drew Starkey, Clifton Collins Jr. and William Fichtner, "Lucky" will make its global debut on Apple TV with the first two episodes on Wednesday, July 15, followed by new episodes every Wednesday through August 19. "Lucky" is based on the New York Times bestselling novel and Reese's Book Club pick of the same name by Marissa Stapley. When a multi-million-dollar heist goes sideways, con artist Lucky (Anya Taylor-Joy) is forced to go on the run. Pursued by both the FBI and a ruthless crime boss, Lucky must fight for her life - and a way out.

Going For It

Lucky has a respectable 4.1 Attention Score headed into its premiere, which is only bound to increase once the show actually premieres. Apple is clearly excited about the show, and isn't going to let it flop the way Trying's latest season did if they can help it.

Going Against It

Apple has seemingly decided Lucky would be unable to hold its own if the synopsis simply stated what the show was about, rather than providing an entire background on the prestige behind it. A similar synopsis was drafted for Widow's Bay, which, while relatively popular for the streaming service, struggles to top the chart.

Daily Peak Prediction: #2 on Apple TV

The Hawk (Season 1)
Premieres: July 16 on Netflix
Genre: Single-camera comedy

Synopsis: On the back nine of his career, golf legend Lonnie "The Hawk" Hawkins chases one final major -- and drags everyone he loves into the chaos.

Going For It

The Hawk's current 4.0 Attention Score demonstrates some clear interest. Sports comedies have also tended to do well on streaming services, including Apple TV's golf comedy, Stick.

Going Against It

The Hawk has been in production since April 2023. At this point, it will be drawing comparison's to Apple TV's popular golf comedy Stick, a show which premiered 13 months ago and was placed in development almost an entire year after The Hawk. While The Hawk was put in development first, in execution it just looks like behemoth Netflix's answer to an Apple TV show. It will also have tough competition from Worst Neighbor Ever, which topped the chart much of last week, and Little House on the Prairie, which wound up reaching #1 as well after a slower start at #2.

Daily Peak Prediction: #3 on Netflix