Summer Renew/Cancel Predictions - July 17: Wayward Pines is Certain to be Canceled

Hi! In case this is your first time reading my summer renew/cancel predictions post, I'm Hunter and I will be posting these predictions each weekend this summer, covering the summer shows on the five major broadcast networks. This is week five, and while there was no renew/cancel news this week, nor were there any series or season premieres, this was still an interesting TV week. This week, NBC decided to move the already-renewed Aquarius and the already-canceled Hannibal to Saturdays, following terrible ratings from both (0.5 for the former, 0.4 for the latter) last Thursday. Also, CBS moved second-season drama Extant from 10:00 to 9:00 following Wednesday's low-rated episode, giving Extant a lead-in of Big Brother instead of Criminal Minds reruns. I will discuss what I think these moves mean below, in addition to other things. So, now, here are the summer shows divided into categories, and then my in-detail thoughts on a few of them. Enjoy!

Format for predictions:
Show title (network) (average adults 18-49 rating)

Certain to be Canceled
Dates (CW) (0.1)
Golan the Insatiable (FOX) (0.5)
Wayward Pines (FOX) (1.1)

Will Likely be Canceled
The Astronaut Wives Club (ABC) (0.9)
Rookie Blue (ABC) (0.7)
The Whispers (ABC) (1.0)

Extant (CBS) (0.7)
Mistresses (ABC) (0.8)

Will Likely be Renewed
Under the Dome (CBS) (1.1)
Zoo (CBS) (1.1)

Certain to be Renewed

Fate Determined
A.D.: The Bible Continues (NBC) CANCELED
American Odyssey (NBC) CACNCELED
Aquarius (NBC) RENEWED
Beauty and the Beast (CW) RENEWED

Yet to Premiere
The Carmichael Show (NBC)
Mr. Robinson (NBC)
Significant Mother (CW)
Welcome to Sweden (NBC)

After falling even farther this week to a 0.9, I believe that Wayward Pines is certain to be canceled. The chances that FOX will renew the show are slim, despite the great DVR numbers. Live viewing is what matters most, Wayward Pines' episode next week will most likely be its very last.

When they are airing other countries' shows, networks usually allow the ratings to fall farther than other shows because it is cheep for them to air a season of a show that has already been ordered. However, Motive was canceled by ABC last summer, despite getting a third season in Canada, and since Rookie Blue's ratings this season are much lower than Motive's last season, I predict that it is likely to be canceled. After premiering to a 0.6, the show has risen to a 0.7, but it has since remained there. I don't know whether or not another season of Rookie Blue will be made, but I doubt that it will be aired on ABC in the US.

Extant reached a new low this week, 0.6. CBS then decided to move Extant to the 9:00 hour. This indicates two things. The first is 0.6s are probably not renewable numbers for Under the Dome or Extant, and the second is that CBS really wants Extant to survive. If Extant is able to get mostly 0.8 and above at 9:00, I expect that it will be back. Otherwise, it could end up getting canceled.

NBC's decision to move its Thursday night scripted programs to Saturday night wasn't surprising in the case of Hannibal, which had recently gotten canceled and got a 0.4 rating in its last Thursday airing. However, it was more surprising for Aquarius, which was doing slightly better and had gotten renewed. Many people are wondering if this indicates that NBC may reverse their decision to renew Aquarius. It's unlikely, in my opinion, but with NBC, anything's possible. But, what it does indicate is that season two of Aquarius will probably air on Saturdays, if not entirely online.

I was considering moving both Under the Dome and Zoo to certain to be renewed at the beginning of the week. However, their ratings this week made me want to wait probably one more week. Both series fell two tenths this week. If they are more stable next week, I will likely upgrade them. I was also planning on moving The Whispers down this week. If next week The Whispers gets 0.8 or below, I'm moving it.

The Astronaut Wives Club went back up to a 0.9 this week. If that proves to not be a fluke, I will move it back up to toss-up next week. ABC Thursdays are proving to be the hardest shows to predict this summer.

Next week, I will have my first prediction for Welcome to Sweden. I had hoped that this week the "certain to be renewed" section wouldn't be empty, but it still is. However, next week it is very likely that either Under the Dome, Zoo, or both could end up there. You'll have to come back next week to see!

Do you agree or disagree with my predictions? How do you think the upcoming summer shows will do? Leave a comment with your thoughts!

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