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Renew/Cancel Wrap-Up 2020: Comparing Our Record Other Websites’ Predictions

The 2019-20 broadcast television season has come to a close, and every renew/cancel decision has been made (except for The CW’s Katy Keene, which is unanimously predicted to be renewed.)

For an easier read, below will be a table of shows where not every website agreed on a prediction.

The following shows were universally incorrectly predicted by all websites:

Hawaii Five-0
Duncanville
Broke
Man With A Plan
Schooled

All shows on neither lists were correct predictions for all websites. There are 57 of those shows. The Baker And The Beauty would have made 58 had TV Grim Reaper not abstain by considering it a summer show.

As you can see, we correctly predicted more shows and incorrectly predicted less shows than the other websites. This is not the first time The TV Ratings Guide has come in first; in fact, in our five years of doing renew/cancel columns, we were more accurate than everybody else more often than not.

There were no instances in which we incorrectly predicted something that everyone else correctly predicted. On the flip side, there were two cases of us being the only website to correctly predict a certain show: Single Parents and Stumptown. The latter spent its fair share of time in our cancelation category, but ultimately was a renewal prediction at the end.

It always hurts to get a prediction wrong. We know fans of shows have seen our predictions before, and the worst outcome possible is predicting a renewal, only to see the show get canceled. Luckily, there was only one instance where not all websites were in unison where we predicted a renewal for a canceled show: Bless This Mess.

Speaking of which, there was one fan of a certain show that had a strong opinion on one of our incorrect predictions:

Well, at least we can say the creator of The Resident took the time to click on the link and check out our predictions.

Here is a quick table with the overall hit-miss record for every website:

Now, let’s have a brief discussion on the five shows everyone missed.

Hawaii Five-0 was far and away the biggest shocker. The ratings were more than passable for Fridays, and the final season announcement was not made public until weeks before the series finale. It’s been said to be more of a decision made by the show and not the network, but it has to be wondered if CBS figured they can move on by having MacGyver and Magnum P.I. be Friday staples instead.

Broke, Man With A Plan, and Schooled all had very similar situations: their same-day ratings were solid at best, and their delayed-viewing ratings were far from impressive. Still, Man With A Plan was 19 episodes away from what used to be the magic 88 episode syndication number, and the show seemed syndication-friendly. Schooled appears to be a case of being on a network wanting to cut comedy hours, and Broke was seemingly not seen as a priority by CBS.

It is well known that FOX is looking to expand their slate of animated comedies in the near future. With The Simpsons reportedly not making them money now that Disney owns it (maybe it does when FOX NOW is factored in?,) and Family Guy aging, it’s easy to see why they would want more animated comedies. They had already renewed Bless The Harts, a time slot half-hit with almost nonexistent delayed viewing ratings. Duncanville went under a million viewers in same-day viewing sometimes, and was a hit by no means. FOX claims it did well on FOX NOW, their free, ad-supported streaming website, although there is no way for any prediction website to find out just how well it did. It appears FOX is very serious about finding a new animated block without their staples. Who knows, maybe it will eventually catch on in syndication like Bob’s Burgers did. Plus, Family Guy didn’t exactly do great at the beginning either. Then again, neither did Bordertown, Allen Gregory, or Napoleon Dynamite.

So yes, we did have our fair share of incorrect predictions, but we also had more key hits than anyone else. We are not asking anyone to read our predictions and ignore the other websites, but we do hope you take our predictions seriously.

How’d They Do? Evaluating The Ratings of Stumptown, For Life, and Emergence

Welcome to this edition of How’d They Do?. The ratings for Stumptown, For Life, and Emergence are here. Note that this does not include cancelations, but rather shows that were announce to be ending ahead of time.

Credit for the ratings go to Programming Insider. Any missing numbers is a result of them not being reported.

How’d They Do? Evaluating The Ratings of NCIS, NCIS: LA, and NCIS: NO

Welcome to this edition of How’d They Do?. The ratings for all three of NCIS shows are here. Note that this does not include cancelations, but rather shows that were announce to be ending ahead of time.

Credit for the ratings go to Programming Insider. Any missing numbers is a result of them not being reported.

NCIS (2003-Present)
NCIS is one of the most successful spin-offs in television history. It has far outlived its mother show, JAG, having held the Tuesday at 8pm time slot for CBS through the entirety of its 17-season run. Season 18 will bring the show past the 400 episode mark, and it launched two successful spinoffs (and one failed pilot.) While it started off with paltry ratings, it grew into a hit for CBS that will be tough to be replicated.

As is indicated by the color coding, NCIS is one of many shows that saw notable ratings gains toward the end of the season, which was also the beginning of the COVID-19 quarantine. In general, many 8pm shows rose in the ratings because of this; not just in same-day viewing, but also in delayed viewing. While the bump only lasted three episodes before the season ended, those ratings contributed toward the impressive season NCIS had on a whole. Drops in Live + 7 viewing among adults aged 18-49 is not ideal given the lesser magnitude of the same day viewing drops, but still nothing to be concerned about.

NCIS even managed to be up ever so slightly in the Men 18-34 demographic, posting a 0.50 this season compared to a 0.49 in Season 16. The median age of a viewer rose by 1.1 years, indicating that many new viewers are on the older side. Still, the steadiness in all 18-34 demos is one of the biggest success stories for NCIS this season. 

NCIS added a considerable number of viewers when Canadians are factored into the equation. It consistently ranked among the top-viewed shows in Canada; getting over two million viewers, as it did in a few occasions, is no small feat. 

It has to be wondered where NCIS would have finished if people weren’t stuck inside and it was able to film its whole season, not “just” 20 episodes. Regardless of that hypothetical outcome, it can’t be denied that NCIS is a valuable property to CBS. With the network trying to turn FBI into a franchise, getting that support from NCIS at 8pm is crucial.

Grade: A

NCIS: LA (2009-Present)
NCIS: LA was a hit before it even began, being sold into a lucrative syndication deal based on the name alone. It was NCIS’s first spinoff, and aired its first several seasons in the Tuesdays at 9pm time slot, directly after NCIS. In the last few years, it has been moved around the schedule multiple times; first with a move to Mondays at 10pm, and later moves throughout Sunday night. In the 2019-20 season, it settled on the Sundays at 9pm time slot, airing between God Friended Me and Madam Secretary in the fall. In the spring, it continued to have God Friended Me as a lead-in, and aired before NCIS: NO.

NCIS: LA’s A18-49 ratings were solid given the circumstances, but definitely nothing to brag about. This is especially true when a look is given to the ratings for its finale, hitting lows in almost all demos. Still, the show had its fair share of decent ratings, often being the scripted highlight of CBS’ Sunday night lineup. That may say more about the shows surrounding NCIS: LA than it does about it,  but it’s nothing to discount.

Year-to-year percentage drops vary wildly throughout all demos. The A18-49 declines were somewhat similar, in the 17-20% range. It only fell 0.02 year-to-year in W18-34, leading to a 6% decline, yet saw declines of over 20% amongst younger men. The median age rose roughly 1.5 years, which may explain why the decline in total viewers looks healthier than that in most demos.

Absent the finale, the ratings for the final batch of episodes were similar to those of the first few episodes. NCIS: LA has found a loyal audience, and CBS still sees it valuable enough in same-day ratings to keep a non-10pm time slot.

Grade: B

NCIS: NO (2014-Present)
CBS picking up NCIS: NO in 2014 saved the franchise from having two rejected pilots in two seasons. They placed it on their schedule in the Tuesdays at 9pm time slot, moving NCIS: LA instead of creating an all-NCIS lineup. It had since occupied the Tuesdays at 10pm time slot, before moving to Sundays at 10pm in a midseason move this season. It has proven to be the “least-strong” of the three NCIS shows, but still a good investment given the decent-enough ratings and tie-in with NCIS.

The color coding clearly shows the point where NCIS: NO made the move to Sundays at 10pm. Falling from a 0.85 in same-day viewing among adults aged 18-49 on its last Tuesday episode to a 0.46 in its first Sunday episode is rough. At that point, it would be expected it could go as low as 0.3-0.4 by the time the season finishes. NCIS: NO did rebound a bit from that in same-day viewing, but the seven-day viewing trajectory is a different story. Down 0.24 to a 1.03 L+7 rating for its Sunday premiere, NCIS: NO only went higher in three of the nine subsequent episodes. 

Year-to-year percentage declines were pretty standard, in the double digits but lower than a 20% drop. Unlike NCIS and NCIS: LA, NCIS: NO didn’t have any trends that looks particularly great on a year-to-year basis, but given the move to Sunday, things could have easily gone worse.

Over the course of the season, the ratings amongst viewers aged 25 to 54 did not hold as steady as the 18 to 34 and 18 to 49 demos. While the younger demos certainly had their off weeks, like when it slipped 0.7–>0.2 in W18-34 between the Tuesday finale and Sunday premiere, the start and end of the season saw pretty similar ratings.

Had the 0.46 for the Sunday premiere defined NCIS: NO’s Sunday night run, it wouldn’t be far-fetched to give this season a low grade and anticipate the show concluding in the next year or two. Its rebound demonstrates NCIS: NO is likely here to stay for a while longer, as CBS has found something that can bring improvements to the non-coveted time slot.

Grade: B

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How’d They Do? Evaluating The Ratings of Criminal Minds and Madam Secretary’s Final Seasons

Welcome to this edition of ‘How’d They Do?’. The final season ratings of two CBS shows which ended in the 2019-20 season are evaluated here. Note that this does not include cancelations, but rather shows that were announce to be ending ahead of time.

Credit for the ratings go to Programming Insider. Any missing numbers is a result of them not being reported. Some shows will have a column reflected their viewership in Canada, but numbers are only available for weeks where the show made the top 30. Averages in the Canada column are only visible when the vast majority of episodes have ratings reported.

Criminal Minds (2005-2020)
Criminal Minds proved itself to be a key player on CBS’s schedule over time. It was never a huge hit to the level of NCIS and CSI, but its stability at the turn of the 2010s decade was remarkable. This is not to mention how often it’s in syndication rotation, making backend money for CBS and Disney. It also had international appeal, with South Korea even creating their own version. CBS tried twice to replicate its success through spinoffs: Suspect Behavior in 2011 and Beyond Borders in 2016. Neither spinoffs were successes, and got canceled after no more than two short seasons.

For the most part, Criminal Minds’ short final season, which aired in the winter, had impressive year-to-year trends. Airing at 9pm for all but one of the first six episodes certainly couldn’t have hurt, but it’s not like the Undercover Boss lead-in was especially coveted.

It is fully possible, though, that Undercover Boss was stronger in Live ratings than the typical show, which may see a sizable Same Day viewing jump. This theory can be validated by looking at the year-to-year trends in the first chart: the Live + Same Day ratings for Criminal Minds had a better trend than the delayed viewing numbers. Also, while the median age of viewers grew, it was by less than a year, implying it gained a few younger viewers this season. Perhaps these people for the most part were in their 50s, given the stellar trends in not just A25-54, but also the gender breakdown of that age bracket.

The final two episodes, which aired alongside each other on one night, rose from the previous episode in all 16 demographics shown above, including hitting a high amongst seven-day viewership in Canada. The Live+7 bump in the A18-49 demo was rather modest, yet still a higher rating than most other episodes in this final season.

Criminal Minds’ final season added episodes for syndication and international viewing, had solid trends in every demographic, and likely did better than what any other shows that could’ve realistically aired in place of it. It also appeared to not be overly depending on lead-ins, looking much better in retention out of Undercover Boss than Survivor.

Grade: A

Madam Secretary (2014-2019)
Madam Secretary began its six-season run in the coveted Sunday at 8pm time slot, taking over for The Amazing Race. The A18-49 Live + Same Day results weren’t great, and simply got worse over time. Ratings were always well below average, and yet it kept making the cut for another season. Over time, it was given time slot downgrades, first moving to 9pm for Season 3, and then 10pm for Seasons 4 through 6.

Madam Secretary was down 25% in the A18-49 demographic for its final season, and the delayed viewing ratings trends were no better. All subdemos also had rough year-to-year trends as well. This is not out of the ordinary for most seasons of Madam Secretary.

The series finale’s ratings rose in every demographic, although modestly. Still, with no subdemos significantly below average, the finale shouldn’t be judged too harshly. It was well past the point where it would be able to post ratings much better than it. 

The ratings had a few scares throughout the season, mostly with the M18-34 demo. Hitting a 0.1 for its third episode could give the feeling that it would at some point hit the dreaded 0.0. Luckily, it didn’t go lower than that 0.1, although it did match it in two subsequent episodes and had a 36% year-to-year drop. Also, the ratings for episodes 3 through 6 signaled the results in the final four episodes could’ve been much worse. 

Grade: D

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