Certain Cancellation:
N/A
Likely Cancellation:
Quantum Leap (0.27, 0.18-0.32)
Leans Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Renewal:
Extended Family (0.32, 0.22-0.71)
Law & Order: Organized Crime (0.40, 0.36-0.46)
Likely Renewal:
Chicago Med (0.55, 0.47-0.62)
Law & Order (0.43, 0.38-0.48)
Night Court (0.35, 0.28-0.46)
Certain Renewal:
Chicago Fire (0.56, 0.49-0.63)
Chicago PD (0.52, 0.46-0.57)
Law & Order: SVU (0.56, 0.50-0.62)
Saturday Night Live (0.74, 0.60-0.96)
Already Canceled/Final Season:
La Brea (0.19, 0.17-0.21)
Magnum PI (0.26, 0.21-0.32)
Already Renewed:
Found (0.31, 0.25-0.40)
The Irrational (0.28, 0.24-0.34)
Coming Soon:
Lopez vs Lopez
Extended Family: One show that has fallen completely under the radar in the past few weeks is Extended Family. I'll be honest and say I was intending to downgrade this show to a cancellation prediction just earlier today, and I'm still not fully convinced that that would have been the wrong call. After all, its ratings have declined pretty consistently (last week's episode was the only one thus far to not decline from its rating the previous week). It's gone as low as 0.22, essentially matching what American Auto did in this slot last season, when it was canceled. That being said, it's still retaining roughly 79% of its weak Night Court lead-in, a lead-in that few shows could ever possibly thrive behind. Even with its retention being somewhat decent, I was preparing to predict a cancellation. After all, even in this day and age, it's rare to see shows with such low ratings renewed, especially when they seem to be in a continuous downward spiral. However... NBC recently scheduled repeats of the show (and Night Court) to air starting on May 7, well after its first season will have already wrapped up, and right around when they'd be announcing their renewals and cancellations for the season. That's months away, so that repeat may never air, but it's a sign to me that NBC is currently sticking by the show. If they do renew it, that'd be sticking with recent history, as we haven't seen a freshman NBC comedy canceled since 2020's Indebted (all three freshman comedies were canceled that year, in fact). It's a strategy that hasn't proven fruitful, as, of the comedies that have premiered since 2021, only Young Rock went on to receive a third season. With a new president in charge, I was expecting them to abandon that "strategy" (if you can call it that), but the signs are pointing against that at this point. A cancellation would still be far from a surprise, but I think it LEANS RENEWAL. It's not off the hook by any means, though, and it remains the toughest show to predict by far on NBC.
Night Court: This week, we saw a minor uptick for Night Court, which is a very welcome change from the consistent declines it's been seeing virtually since it premiered. Unfortunately for it, it's still below the 0.30 mark, and this is the weakest competition it'll see for the remainder of its run. Next week, FBI premieres, and ABC will debut Will Trent the week after. I'm not sure either of those share much of an audience with Night Court, so maybe it won't be impacted, but it's possible we could see even further hemorrhaging in the weeks to come, which could put it in some genuine danger. I'm not yet at the point where I think the future Night Court could go either way, so I'm not changing its prediction, but it's on thin ice and could be in for a prediction downgrade soon, depending on how it holds up against the new competition. It remains a LIKELY RENEWAL for now.
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!
