EMMY AWARDS PREVIEW: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited/Anthology Series or TV Movie
On Wednesdays, I am taking a look at the major Emmy categories before nominations are revealed in July. Here's a look at the Lead Actor and Actress in a Limited/Anthology Series or TV Movie categories. As mentioned with the Supporting categories, it's a weird and weak year for Limited Series that makes it hard to predict but here's a try!
LEAD ACTOR IN A LIMITED/ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE
Like all the Limited Series races this year, things feel pretty unsettled. The leading contender at the moment might be Matthew Rhys for The Beast in Me. Even though Beast received mixed reviews, it was well-watched and Rhys is having a moment now for Widow's Bay. It would be ironic, but not entirely unlikely, that he gets in for this performance and not his much better received Widow's performance. Beef isn't quite as strong a contender as many thought it would be but in a weak field, I still think it could pick up a slew of nominations including Oscar Isaac in this category.
The early frontrunner, perhaps by default, was Charlie Hunnam for Monster: The Ed Gein Story. Now many are still predicting Hunnam to get in even if the series doesn't. Despite the mixed reviews, I'm pretty bullish on Hunnam getting nominated given how the Monster series has done for other installments. Like The Beast in Me, Monster and Beef, Black Rabbit only received mixed reviews but it's on Netflix so it's probably better seen than a lot of competitors. That, coupled with Jason Bateman's general Emmy strength, could get him in while his co-star, Jude Law, is much less likely. I feel less confident about Michael Shannon or Matthew Macfadyen's chances for Death by Lightning even though that show received better reviews.
HBO made an interesting call to run Jamie Bell and Mitchell Robertson in Lead for Half Man while putting Richard Gadd in Featured. People seemed very mixed on Half Man but Bell's performance was praised, if enough people saw it. If he manages to get into the field, I think he could be win-competitive. Robertson is much more of a longshot. It seems like Love Story is starting to coalesce as a legitimate contender so that probably helps Paul Anthony Kelly's chances but I'm still not convinced, especially in a field of only five.
Since there are only five slots, the drop off from contenders to longshots or dark horses happens quickly. Riz Ahmed might be one of the few in-betweeners as Bait didn't make much of a splash but did have some critical support. Jon Bernthal is another of those well-seen, poorly-reviewed Netflix stars for His & Hers but I don't think it's happening for him despite his Emmy love for The Bear. It's barely worth mentioning the TV movie names because they never get in but if anyone does, it would be Lewis Pullman for Remarkably Bright Creatures.
A few very long-shot contenders include Jason Momoa for Chief of War, Jason Clarke for Murdaugh: Death in the Family and Winston Sawyers for Lord of the Flies.
PREDICTED NOMINEES:
1. Matthew Rhys, The Beast in Me
2. Oscar Isaac, Beef
3. Charlie Hunnam, Monster: The Ed Gein Story
4. Jamie Bell, Half Man
5. Paul Anthony Kelly, Love Story
Just Behind
6. Jason Bateman, Black Rabbit
7. Michael Shannon, Death by Lightning
8. Riz Ahmed, Bait
LEAD ACTRESS IN A LIMITED/ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE
There are only five slots available here as well and there's another slew of popular actresses in shows that received mixed reviews at the top. The safest bet seems to be Claire Danes, who is no stranger to Emmy love. As I mentioned above, The Beast in Me was well-watched even though it didn't get a lot of positive reviews and that's probably going to be enough. Next up is probably Sarah Snook. It gives me pause to put her in the second position because Peacock really struggles to get Emmy nominations, but I think this show did well enough and Snook is a big enough name that she will get in.
Similar to Jamie Bell in Actor, Sarah Pidgeon seems like she'll be win competitive as long as she actually gets in. Despite the ickiness some people feel about Love Story, Pidgeon's performance was generally praised so I do think she'll make it in. I am also fairly sure Carey Mulligan gets in for Beef but I am worried that I am overvaluing the strength of Beef. As mentioned above, TV Movies almost never get anyone in but that could change with Sally Field's well-received performance in Remarkably Bright Creatures. We have been down this road before though with TV Movie performances so I'll believe it when I see it.
Kerry Washington has certainly been an Emmy darling before so despite the muted reception to Imperfect Women, she could certainly get in. Meanwhile, The Girlfriend seems to a be a little show that has looked a little better when more shows came out to mixed reviews so I wouldn't totally count out Robin Wright from sneaking into the last slot. Despite it really being a two-hander, it doesn't look like her co-star Olivia Cooke has much of a chance. While I felt like His & Hers wasn't strong enough for Jon Bernthal to get in, the Actress field is a little bit lighter so Tessa Thompson has a clearer path though she's probably still on the outside looking in right now. There's a case to be made for Camila Morrone for Something Very Bad is Going to Happen but I don't think she actually gets in.
After that, we're really talking about longshots. That includes Lili Reinhart for Hal & Harper, Allison Janney for Miss You, Love You (another TV movie), Patricia Arquette for Murdaugh: Death in the Family and Rachel Weisz for Vladimir.
PREDICTED NOMINEES:
1. Claire Danes, The Beast in Me
2. Sarah Snook, All Her Fault
3. Sarah Pidgeon, Love Story
4. Carey Mulligan, Beef
5. Kerry Washington, Imperfect Women
Just Behind
6. Robin Wright, The Girlfriend
7. Sally Field, Remarkably Bright Creatures
8. Tessa Thompson, His & Hers
Next Week: The Series Races!
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EMMY AWARDS PREVIEW: Lead Actor & Actress in a Drama Series
On Wednesdays, I am taking a look at the major Emmy categories before nominations are revealed in July. Here's a look at the Lead Actor and Actress in a Drama Series categories. It's sort of a reverse of the Comedy Lead categories with a dominant frontrunner on the Actor side this time and a more wide-open race on the Actress side.
LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
This race feels a little bit over before it begins. While he was in a tight race last year with Adam Scott, this year feels like there is not really a threat to stop Noah Wyle from taking home his second straight award for The Pitt. So the question is more about who will fill out the category only to end up losing to Wyle?
It has to start with Sterling K. Brown, who was nominated for Paradise last year and won this award in 2017 for This is Us. He seems sure to get back in for the second season of Paradise, which was a big hit for Hulu. And though he struggled to get in for the first couple years of his series, Gary Oldman is now a standby for the category and will likely get a third straight nomination for Slow Horses. The category was rounded out last year by Scott and Pedro Pascal and both are not eligible this year so there will be at least two changes.
A previous nominee from 2024 could get back in. Walton Goggins got a nod for the first season of Fallout and could certainly get back in. I'm not quite sure what to think of Goggins' chances. On the one hand, he is a well-liked actor and the field isn't that strong, just like in 2024. On the other hand, Fallout does not seem like a show that's going to continue to be an Emmy player as it continues on. So we'll see. Idris Elba was also a nominee two years ago for Hijack but it would be really surprising to see him get back in after the second season of Hijack was mostly ignored and/or disliked. And there's also a previous winner on the list: Lee Jung-Jae was a surprise winner for Squid Game in this category in 2022 but Squid has fallen off the Emmy map so a nomination seems unlikely.
As far as possible new nominees, Mark Ruffalo is leading the pack for Task. I'm not totally sold on Task being a major player but Ruffalo definitely feels like the strongest contender for HBO's drama. Speaking of HBO dramas, Peter Claffey is a contender for A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms. The Game of Thrones universe has never been a huge draw for acting nominees (aside from Peter Dinklage) but Seven Kingdoms was well-received. Jon Hamm did not make it in for the first season of Your Friends and Neighbors but was a perennial contender for Mad Men and could break through for the second season of a fairly successful Apple show.
After that, it gets trickier. While Keri Russell has been a regular nominee for The Diplomat, that hasn't extended to Rufus Sewell but maybe it will at some point. Billy Bob Thornton has snuck onto the Golden Globes list for Landman, which is a huge hit for Paramount+. But I just really struggle with the idea of him actually getting an Emmy nomination for that show. There's been a bit of a sentimental push for Antony Starr to get in for the final season of The Boys, but those types of things rarely happen when they've never been nominated before. Tom Hiddleston was nominated in the Limited category back in 2016 for The Night Manager but the second season, which arrived ten years later, didn't seem to make much of an impact.
A few dark horses who seem very unlikely but are worth mentioning are Morgan Spector for The Gilded Age, Belmont Cameli for Off Campus, Alfred Molina for The Boroughs and Billy Magnussen for The Audacity.
PREDICTED NOMINEES:
1. Noah Wyle, The Pitt
2. Sterling K. Brown, Paradise
3. Gary Oldman, Slow Horses
4. Mark Ruffalo, Task
5. Peter Claffey, A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms
Just Behind
6. Walton Goggins, Fallout
7. Jon Hamm, Your Friends and Neighbors
8. Rufus Sewell, The Diplomat
LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Last year's winner, Britt Lower, is ineligible this time around and in fact, only two of last year's five nominees are eligible for Lead Actress in a Drama Series. They are Keri Russell for The Diplomat and Kathy Bates for Matlock. Russell is a shoo-in for a nomination and might be a shaky frontrunner at the moment. Bates is more of a question mark. She was picked by many to win last year but that didn't happen and then Matlock's second season didn't make as much noise as the first. She could still get in because she's Kathy Bates after all. But she is not in nearly as strong a position this year.
There is a former winner in our midst though. Zendaya was a surprise winner in 2020 for Euphoria and then she did it again in 2022. Zendaya is as popular as ever but Euphoria was much more divisive in its long-delayed third and final season. Still, I expect Zendaya will make it in and if she does, she certainly could win for a third time for the role that helped catapult her into stardom.
As far as other contenders, Jennifer Aniston and Reese Witherspoon have each gotten in twice for The Morning Show and missed once. This definitely feels like the shakiest ground they've been on and it would not be surprising to see both miss for the first time as I think the fourth season of The Morning Show will plummet in nomination count from the third season. Recent Tony nominee Carrie Coon was nominated two years ago for The Gilded Age and could get back in even though the season aired around a year ago. Her co-star Christine Baranski was nominated in Supporting two years ago but has a tougher road ahead now that she is in Lead.
As far as potential new nominees, the one leading the pack is Rhea Seehorn for Pluribus. When Pluribus was airing in the fall, it seemed like Seehorn was going to walk away with the whole thing easily. But it seems like the show has lost some momentum. I still expect Seehorn to get in and perhaps win but I don't think she's as strong as she was at one point. Maybe that will change when the nominations come out. And then there's Chase Infiniti. She didn't get an Oscar nomination this year but was a key role in the Best Picture winner before starring in The Testaments. Elisabeth Moss got nominated for years for The Handmaid's Tale and its sequel seemed to do pretty well with viewers so Infiniti could be a surprise nominee. We already talked about Michelle Pfeiffer in the Supporting category for Margo's Got Money Troubles. She is Taylor Sheridan's best hope for a nomination with The Madison but I just don't see it happening.
Kristin Scott Thomas has been in the discussion for years but still hasn't gotten a nomination for Slow Horses so I don't think it'll happen this far into the run. Ella Purnell had a decent chance two years ago to get in for Fallout but as I mentioned above, I don't think Fallout will start picking up MORE above the line nominations. And there's always love for Myha'la Herrold on Industry but that has never led to a nomination.
A few dark horses include Kaitlin Olson for High Potential (though two broadcast nominees in this category would be WILD), Nicole Kidman for Scarpetta and Sydney Chandler for Alien: Earth.
PREDICTED NOMINEES:
1. Keri Russell, The Diplomat
2. Zendaya, Euphoria
3. Rhea Seehorn, Pluribus
4. Kathy Bates, Matlock
5. Carrie Coon, The Gilded Age
Just Behind
6. Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show
7. Chase Infiniti, The Testaments
8. Christine Baranski, The Gilded Age
Next Week: Lead Actor & Actress in a Limited/Anthology Series!
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