Welcome to the first edition of 2024 of Paramount+ Renew/Cancel. Below is a table of predictions for US-based scripted Paramount+ originals with fates yet to be determined. These predictions are made by taking into account factors including but not limited to the show’s prominence on Paramount+’s home page (not counting personalized sections) and its overall rank in the ‘Popular’ section. The following prediction changes have been made since the last edition:
-Frasier is downgraded from Likely Renew to Leans Renew-Wolf Pack is downgraded from Leans Cancel to Canceled
-Sexy Beast debuts in the chart as a Miniseries
Wolf Pack premiered on Paramount+ on January 26, 2023. Almost an entire year later, on January 25, 2024, Wolf Pack’s cancelation was announced. Although it’s been several months since Wolf Pack was in the upper echelon of the ‘Popular’ section, there was some glimmer of hope even as time passed. Its inclusion in Paramount+’s Halloween-themed section demonstrated a sign of support even months after the finale had dropped. Also, it is one of the Paramount+ shows to get a linear premiere on Paramount+ With Showtime, formerly known as Showtime. Despite having not been renewed by Paramount+, Wolf Pack had already begun on developing a second season, which was set to go into production in February. This tactic likely was a factor in the timing of the cancelation. Plus, with the WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes pushing back production and release schedules, it would be a while before a second season of Wolf Pack would be able to premiere. Ultimately, Wolf Pack’s viewership has appeared relatively low for months, with internal support limited since Halloween. Keeping these factors in mind led to Wolf Pack’s cancelation being a correct prediction.
Frasier
Paramount+ has not been shy about advertising their reboot of Frasier. It’s received an amount of promo that any Season 2 could only dream of getting. The Frasier reboot performed seemingly well at first for Paramount+, yet has faltered a bit in the weeks since the season ended. It did help rejuvenate the original series, which still ranks high in the ‘Popular’ section. Paramount+ also seems to be supportive of the reboot, with it showing up three times on the home page. Still, one would have to wonder if Paramount+ hoped for more out of the Frasier reboot. Even if it did well for Paramount+ while episodes were airing, they may have been hoping it would land consistently on the Nielsen streaming charts. A second season of a reboot will almost certainly not do nearly as well as the first, which is something Paramount+ is likely thinking about as they keep its future in limbo. Canceling it after just one season will make this reboot come across as a colossal failure, which could help its chances for a second season. Even then, Paramount+ is not in a position to renew shows to “save face.” In the past year, they’ve canceled far more shows than they’ve renewed. While it’s tough to bet against a renewal for what is arguably Paramount+’s highest-profile reboot ever, it gets downgraded to Leans Renew in this column.
Lawmen: Bass Reeves and Sexy Beast
Lawmen: Bass Reeves and Sexy Beast are both being marketed as miniseries. While there has been speculation as to if there would be potential for second seasons, particularly for the former, I’ll assume the miniseries moniker to mean they are one-and-done unless Paramount+ changes their mind and says otherwise. Both are currently out-performing the other shows in this table, with Lawmen: Bass Reeves even cracking the Nielsen streaming charts in December. Depending on the financials, that gets you to wonder if Paramount+ would actually be better off airing more miniseries than attempting to find multi-season hits.
School Spirits and Licensing Series
It’s not much of a secret that Paramount+ is currently on the losing side of the streaming wars. For how fragmented the market has become, it’s still a battle for companies like Paramount to be able to compete with Netflix. In 2023, Paramount+ aired and renewed School Spirits, a supernatural teen drama. Its renewal went against this prediction model, with it ranking at #101 in the ‘Popular’ section with 0 appearances on the home page in the column leading up to its renewal. Paramount licensed the show to Netflix, and it became one of Netflix’s Top 10 TV shows in the United states for four weeks in December. Time will tell if this will have an effect on Season 2’s performance, but this arguably an indicator that Paramount should try to license more Paramount+ originals to Netflix. There could be a lot of untapped potential producing these shows for a struggling streaming service.