Predictions for 12/30/23
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| Photo Credit: Fox |
Below are the Week 14 renew/cancel predictions for the Fox network in the 2023-24 television season. The numbers listed in the table mark the Nielsen rating low, average, and high for each respective program in the Adults 18-49 demographic. The "Y2Y (year-to-year) Change" column denotes how much the series has risen or fallen when compared to its average from the previous season. Because of the WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes, there is a limited amount of scripted programming this fall. As a result, reality television will now be included in this column.
The Simpsons: After spending most of the season giving Krapopolis the slot closest to the NFL boost, Fox finally decided to gift The Simpsons with another 8 p.m. showing on a football-inflated night. The lead-in was large enough to propel Simpsons to a monstrous 1.80 rating in the Adults 18-49 demographic. This easily qualifies as a new season high but is also the show's highest rating of the 2020s decade altogether, with the 1.7 it managed for its September 2020 premiere serving as its previous high of the decade. Does this mean that The Simpsons did particularly well? Not quite. Its lead-in was a whopping 4.60, meaning its 39% retention of The OT was not much better than what we have come to expect from Krapopolis (34% retention on 12/17). However, 34% retention in this slot would have amounted to a 1.58 rating, so the 1.8 that we got here is still a clear step above Krap. This rating was high enough that it boosted the average of Simpsons by more than a full tenth, thus taking it out of the tie it was in with Krap and making it the top scripted program on broadcast. This 0.7 average definitely does not represent the true strength of The Simpsons (the four episodes that aired with no NFL help averaged a 0.33), but it just goes to show that the series is an asset in the way that it can retain more of The OT than most.
HouseBroken: The last time that HouseBroken was on the air, it managed an anemic 0.06 rating and went below half a million in total viewership. It would have been reasonable to conclude that the August 6th finale would be its last time on television, but the series somehow wormed its way back onto the schedule on Christmas Eve. Football help catapulted a rerun of HouseBroken to a 0.51 rating and pushed it to nearly 2 million in total viewers. To put things into perspective, the previous high was a 0.28 rating with just under a million viewers. The fact that Fox is randomly airing a rerun of this series on an NFL-inflated evening means that there's a chance they are interested in ordering more episodes of the animated sitcom. It seemed like HouseBroken was a complete goner after its pitiful summer performance, but this broadcast makes it clear that Fox has not forgotten about it. The series has not been officially renewed or canceled, so there is still a possibility that it will return for a third season.
Krapopolis: In an ironic twist of faith, the Christmas Eve repeat of Krapopolis (0.83) posted a rating higher than the December 17th original (0.82) that had direct football help. Fox missed a golden opportunity to place a Krap original here as it truly needs all the help it can get before spring arrives.
Celebrity Name That Tune: And in yet another case of reruns beating originals, the December 26th encore of Celebrity Name That Tune (0.27) posted a higher rating than any episode that aired in fall 2023. As ratings dwindle and the pool of viewers shrinks, this is likely to become a recurring trend. Right now, though, it's still quite rare to see a show go three-hundredths higher than its previous season high for a repeat, at least without football inflation in the picture.
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