Fox Renew/Cancel #5: Final Predictions

 Predictions for 5/8/22

Photo Credit: Fox

Below are the final renew/cancel predictions for the Fox network in the 2021-22 television season. The numbers listed in the table are the ratings that these shows have garnered in the Adults 18-49 demographic. Since the previous update, one series have been renewed by the network. As always, only scripted programming will be taken into account in this column.

The 9-1-1 Duo: Longtime drama '9-1-1' and spinoff series '9-1-1: Lone Star' are both certain to return for another season. The most recent episode of '9-1-1' garnered a sturdy 0.70 rating in the Adults 18-49 demographic, making it the highest-rated broadcast of the evening. 'Lone Star' posted a more mild 0.51 but was still fairly competitive in its hour with powerhouses like 'NCIS' (0.55) and 'Shark Tank' (0.53). These are the only two scripted shows that could legitimately be classified as strong performers on the Fox network, and the executives would be making a massive mistake if they somehow decided to let go of this consistent, reliable pair. Status: 99% Chance of Renewal 

The Resident: 'The Resident' is a clear step below the '9-1-1' dramas in the ratings department, with a performance that is just barely passable by current standards. It generally hovers around the 0.4 vicinity, sometimes slightly higher and recently just a touch lower (0.38). Cancellation would not be a complete shock here, but it's likely that Fox will want to keep a few modest players around since they are losing Thursday Night Football to Amazon this coming fall. Expect 'The Resident' to squeeze out at least one more season. Status: 70% Chance of Renewal 

Call Me Kat: 'Call Me Kat' definitely struggled to make a case for renewal this season and has experienced a pretty noticeable sophomore slump. If not for the departure of 'Thursday Night Football' and the lack of hits in Fox's sitcom department, 'Kat' would most likely be at the end of its run. Despite that, the Mayim Bialik sitcom finished out its second season with an impressive finale bump, jumping all the way to a 0.36 rating for the last episode of season two. This is a good bit stronger than what 'The Simpsons' is currently posting and is the sitcom's highest rating since mid-March. Though not a lock by any means, a renewal appears more likely than not. Status: 60% Chance of Renewal 

Pivoting: The last three episodes of 'Pivoting' were unable to clear the 0.2 mark in the 18-49 demographic and were all below 1 million in total viewers. If Fox wants to rebuild their comedy brand, they would be better off investing in another season of 'Call Me Kat' than a second season of a show that does not deliver from a commercial standpoint. Status: 20% Chance of Renewal

Welcome To Flatch: In terms of strength, there does not seem to be any meaningful difference between 'Welcome To Flatch' and 'Pivoting'. Though the May 5th episode actually climbed to a series high in the 18-49 demographic, that high is still a mere 0.21 rating. With only one episode above one million in total viewers and completely awful ratings, 'Flatch' is not likely at all to return. Status: 20% Chance of Renewal

Our Kind of People: This dud from the fall wrapped up its season in late January with pitiful ratings and no episode extension. Though its numbers seem a bit better now since it never had to air in the spring months, that does not mean it has much of a shot at being renewed. Status: 15% Chance of Renewal 

The Big Leap:  This drama was unceremoniously canceled in early March and was a correct prediction. Status: CANCELED

The Cleaning Lady: Fox awarded 'The Cleaning Lady' with a renewal in early April. The drama was a 'Likely Renewal' since its debut and was a correct prediction for this column. Status: RENEWED

The Animated Four: 'The Simpsons', 'The Great North', 'Bob's Burgers', and 'Family Guy' were all renewed for the 2022-23 television season before fall 2021 even began. Their ratings leave much to be desired but they will not be leaving anytime soon. Status: RENEWED

What About Duncanville?: 'Duncanville' debuted with a meager 0.18 rating on the first day of May. Since it will primarily air in the summer, it will not be part of the 2021-22 predictions and instead will have its fate determined in the Summer Renew/cancel column. 

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The Resident

Call Me Kat

Pivoting

Our Kind of People

Welcome to Flatch

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What do you think of these predictions? As always, leave your thoughts in the comment section below.

Fox Renew/Cancel #4: ’Welcome To Flatch’ Has Worn Out Its Welcome

Predictions for 3/19/22

Photo Credit: Fox

Below are the latest renew/cancel predictions for the Fox network in the 2021-22 television season. The numbers listed in the table are the ratings that these shows have garnered in the Adults 18-49 demographic. One new series have entered the table since the previous update. As always, only scripted programming will be taken into account in this column.

Welcome To Flatch: Fox's latest addition to its sitcom library debuted with a pitiful 0.20 rating in the Adults 18-49 demographic and barely cleared the one-million mark in terms of total viewers. These numbers would be miserable enough on their own but it also managed to lose nearly 50% of its 'Call Me Kat' lead-in (0.36). 'Welcome To Flatch' is already the lowest-rated series on Fox and, like nearly every show to air on television, will likely drop from its premiere rating. Unless 'Flatch' magically grows an audience overnight, this comedy series will not be welcome on the Fox network by the time the fall season arrives. Status: LIKELY CANCEL

Call Me Kat: Since the previous column, sophomore comedy 'Call Me Kat' has been upgraded from "Likely Cancellation" to "Likely Renewal". Though it has definitely struggled this season, it recently shot up to a 0.36 rating on March 17th. That may not seem very solid on paper but it serves as the program's strongest 2022 performance without football help. This rating also eclipses the latest episode of every sitcom in the "Animation Domination" block, making 'Kat' the highest-rated Fox sitcom of the week. Considering that most shows crumble this late in the game, 'Kat' is beginning to look somewhat serviceable. Fox also airs reruns of the Mayim Bialik comedy every Sunday night, signaling that they are invested in making sure it gets more exposure. 'Call Me Kat' is far from a lock but a renewal seems far more likely than it did two months ago. Status: LIKELY RENEWAL

The Cleaning Lady: This Elodie Yung drama closed out its first season with an adequate 0.39 rating and retained a solid 71% of '9-1-1: Lone Star' (0.55) on finale night. 'The Cleaning Lady' was a modest success for the Fox network and even managed to outdo its premiere rating on January 24th (0.53) and January 31st (0.55) respectively. While it did tie its series low for its season closer, the Yung vehicle has likely done just enough to avoid cancellation. Status: LIKELY RENEWAL

Pivoting: 'Pivoting' ended its inaugural season with a lifeless 0.18 rating and went as low as a 0.15 during its short stint on Thursday nights. The sitcom was consistently below one million in total viewers for its final three installments and has an average that barely puts it above recently-canceled 'Big Leap'. All signs point to 'Pivoting' succumbing to an early demise, it is not likely to survive past these initial ten episodes. Status: LIKELY CANCEL

The Big Leap: Fox officially canceled 'The Big Leap' on March 4, 2022. Before this news came out, the drama had been in the "Certain Cancellation" category for quite some time, thus making it a correct prediction. Status: CANCELLED

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Will 'Call Me Kat' Be Renewed?

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No

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Fox Renew/Cancel #3: ’The Cleaning Lady’ Will Stay On the Payroll

 

Predictions for 1/17/22

Below are the latest renew/cancel predictions for the Fox network in the 2021-22 television season. The numbers listed in the table are the ratings that these shows have garnered in the Adults 18-49 demographic. Four programs have entered the arena since the previous update. As always, only scripted programming will be taken into account in this column.

      

The Cleaning Lady: After the rotten luck Fox had with new dramas in the fall of 2021, the 0.51 rating that 'The Cleaning Lady' posted for its series premiere served as a refreshing change of pace. Though not a massive hit by any means, this was markedly stronger than the starts of dramas 'Our Kind of People' (0.35) and 'The Big Leap' (0.29). A modest 10% dip in week two placed it at a rather serviceable 0.46, still well above even the highest ratings of the fall newbies. On average, 'Cleaning Lady' has retained a respectable 70% of its '9-1-1: Lone Star' lead-in and fell by a smaller amount than 'Lone Star' did during their second night airing together. While these mediocre ratings would place it as a tossup on a network with A and B-caliber freshman, this C-level performance looks like a godsend against Ds and Fs like 'Our Kind of People' and 'Big Leap'. Although unemployment may loom over her if ratings continue to trickle down, 'The Cleaning Lady' should be able to keep her job for another year. Status: LIKELY RENEWAL

Call Me Kat: Though the comedy's current average may seem promising, it's beginning to look like 'Call Me Kat' will have to close up shop. The sophomore sitcom actually started season two on solid footing, posting an NFL-boosted 1.22 rating that was on-par with the post-football delivery of 'The Simpsons'. If that were not encouraging enough, this rating was just 11% lower than its 2021 series debut (1.37). Things took a troubling for 'Kat' and friends when the series crumbled on Thursday night, garnering a horrific series low (0.30) and going nearly 60% behind its timeslot start from the previous year (0.68). Though there's still time for 'Kat' to change its fate, a collapse of this degree indicates that the Mayim Bialik vehicle will not be sticking around. Status: LIKELY CANCEL

Pivoting: This new sitcom will soon be 'Pivoting' to the exit as its ratings are pitiful enough that it currently sits near the bottom of the roster. Even when taking into account the fact that it lost over 50% of 'Call Me Kat' on premiere night, the 0.60 rating it debuted with was still somewhat workable. After that passable launch, it collapsed on Thursday evening and posted a pathetic 0.23 rating in the Adults 18-49 demographic. Fox may not have much going for it in the sitcom department but they certainly will not renew the one with the lowest ratings of the pack. Status: LIKELY CANCEL

9-1-1: Lone Star: This drama began its third season with a strong 0.76 rating and then dropped to a still robust 0.65 for episode two. Although a clear step down from the 0.8-1.0 range it inhabited in season two, 'Lone Star' has proven that it can anchor an hour without the assistance of its parent series '9-1-1'. Since it remains one of the highest-rated programs on the Fox network, a renewal is all but guaranteed for this spinoff series. Status: CERTAIN RENEWAL

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Fox Renew/Cancel #2: ’Our Kind of People’ is Not Fox’s Kind of Show

 

Predictions for 11/24/21

Photo Credit: Fox

Below are the latest renew/cancel predictions for the Fox network in the 2021-22 television season. The numbers listed in the table are the ratings that these shows have garnered in the Adults 18-49 demographic. Since the last update, one program has been downgraded due to lackluster ratings. As always, only scripted programming will be taken into account in this column. 

Our Kind of People: Through the course of seven episodes, this new drama has dropped by just seven-hundredths from its series premiere. Normally, this type of stability would be more than enough to keep a series on the air. In the case of Our Kind of People, it never debuted strong enough to give itself any room to drop. Though the November 9th installment did climb up to the 0.35 rating it posted for its premiere, it fell down to a series low the week after (0.28). While it's not a complete lost cause like The Big Leap, there's nothing to signal that People will make it past its initial, twelve-episode order. As a result, this drama retains the same status as before. Status: LIKELY CANCEL

The Big Leap: With just two episodes left in its season, The Big Leap has been downgraded from "Likely to be Canceled" to a "Certain Cancellation". The series began in awful territory and it only got worse from there, culminating in Leap falling to a horrific 0.18 on an evening when 9-1-1 was not leading into it. The Big Leap has the strongest drama lead-in Fox can offer it and is still the lowest-rated scripted series on the network. That just about sums up why fans of the series should not except to see another batch of episodes. Status: CERTAIN CANCEL

9-1-1: While it slipped to a new series low for its latest outing (0.67), 9-1-1 remains the third highest-rated scripted show on broadcast television. The days of this Ryan Murphy drama consistently posting ratings above a 1.0 are clearly behind it but it's still a sturdy force on a dying landscape. If Fox ever hopes to launch a successful drama again, putting it after 9-1-1 is still their best bet at achieving success. Status: CERTAIN RENEWAL

The Resident: The Resident is getting up there in age and recently hit its lowest rating to date (0.35). A case could clearly be made for cancellation but Resident should be able to eek out one, final season. As long it rebounds from here and the Fox network is not able to find a new drama that performs well in the winter, expect this fifth-season staple to stick around for a little while longer. Status: LIKELY RENEWAL

The Animation Block: All four cartoons were prematurely renewed and continue to perform well enough by the network's standards. The Great North is only doing marginally better than Bless the Harts but its modest average is still passable. Meanwhile, the audience for The Simpsons only continues to shrink, even on nights with the NFL overrun. Though it's currently up on a year-to-year basis, those gains will slowly fade away when football leaves the picture. Bob's Burgers and Family Guy remain respectable players in the back-half of the evening, with Bob's yet to hit a new series low. They may crumble by spring but this lineup is still the least of Fox's worries. Status: RENEWED

What do you think of these predictions? As always, leave your thoughts in the comment section below.

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Fox Renew/Cancel #1: New Dramas To Make ’The Big Leap’ To Cancellation

 Predictions for 10/03/21

Photo Credit: Fox

Below are the first renew/cancel predictions for the Fox network in the 2021-22 television season. Two new dramas have premiered thus far but both are well below the network's returning players in the Adults 18-49 demographic. As always, only scripted programming will be taken into account in this column. 

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9-1-1: In winter and spring 2021, '9-1-1' was a series that consistently remained at or above a 1.0 rating. Though it dipped below that number a couple times, it closed out the season with a sturdy 1.05 in the Adults 18-49 demographic. That past success is what makes the 0.76 rating it posted for its return so disappointing. Though it garnered a new series low and was nearly 40% behind its season four start, the Ryan Murphy drama is in no danger at all. The performance of '9-1-1' may be lackluster when compared to where it was before but it's still eons above any other scripted Fox program. The uptick in week two to a sturdier 0.85 confirms that '9-1-1' is definitely here to stay. Consider it a lock for season six. Status: CERTAIN RENEWAL

The Resident: This fifth-season medical drama seems to have taken the place of what Bones used to be to the Fox network in the early 2010s. It's clearly not strong enough to launch a show but it keeps Fox semi-competitive on Tuesday nights. With how poorly their new programs have performed out the gate, this veteran should have at least one more season in it. If one of the freshman dramas had excelled, 'The Resident' may have ended up on the wrong side of the bubble. For the time being though, a 0.5 rating is on-par with last spring and should be just enough for it to score another pickup. The drop to a 0.43 is a bit concerning but it remains above the freshmen offerings and should be able to secure another batch of episodes. Status: LIKELY RENEWAL

Our Kind of People: Fox's Tuesday-night newcomer posted an unsatisfactory 0.35 rating for its series premiere, putting it in peril on day one. Despite that, it only lost a mere hundredth in week two, posting a 0.34 rating and only going a tenth below its Resident lead-in. Though this is certainly not the train wreck that The Big Leap is, it's still essentially a dud for the Fox network. If it's able to grow or hold steady, it might just be upgraded to "Tossup" status. But, until more data is available, Our Kind of People is not likely to be back for season two. Status: LIKELY CANCEL

The Big Leap: Words cannot describe how awful of a performer this new drama is. It posted a pathetic 0.29 rating for its series premiere, losing well over 60% of the '9-1-1' audience. 'Big Leap' followed that up by sinking to a 0.25 for its latest installment, this time dropping more than 70% of its '9-1-1' lead-in. This type of performance definitely makes it a candidate for being removed from its slot or pulled off the air altogether. Unless a streaming service resurrects it, 'Big Leap' will not make it past its initial order. Status: LIKELY CANCEL

The Animation Block: 'The Simpsons', 'The Great North', 'Bob's Burgers', and 'Family Guy' have all been renewed for multiple seasons, meaning the entire lineup will be back for the 2022-2023 season regardless of how they perform this year. For what it's worth, 'Great North' seems like a much stronger player than 'Bless the Harts' was last season. 'Simpsons' continues to soak up the NFL lead-ins but can barely even clear the 1.0 threshold with the boost nowadays. 'Bob's and 'Family Guy' hold the fort down nicely in the 9pm hour and will likely come out looking stronger than 'Simpsons' on nights without football help. They may underwhelm without NFL in the picture but they're not going anywhere anytime soon. Status: RENEWED

What do you think of these predictions? As always, leave your thoughts in the comment section below.

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Which Fox cartoon will post the highest rating on Sunday, October 3rd?

The Simpsons

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