ABC Renew/Cancel Week 3: Abbott Elementary Will Remain in Session

This week on the ABC Renew/Cancel, a look at ABC's most senior comedy, and a prediction change for a veteran reality series!

Certain Cancellation:
N/A

Likely Cancellation:
RJ Decker (0.22, 0.20-0.25)

Leans Cancellation:
N/A

Leans Renewal:
Scrubs (0.34, 0.29-0.38)

Likely Renewal:

Abbott Elementary (0.33, 0.32-0.33)

Shark Tank (0.19, 0.15-0.21)

Who Wants to Be a Millionaire? (0.32, 0.20-0.46)

Certain Renewal:

20/20 (0.24, 0.17-0.30)

America's Funniest Home Videos (0.30, 0.28-0.33)

Dancing with the Stars (1.41, 1.32-1.56)

Celebrity Wheel of Fortune (0.31, 0.30-0.32)

Coming Soon:

9-1-1

9-1-1: Nashville

Grey's Anatomy

High Potential

Shifting Gears

The Rookie

The Rookie: North

Will Trent

Untitled Grey's Anatomy spinoff

Abbott Elementary: It's ABC's most successful comedy in many years, and the network clearly still values it, six seasons into its run. Once again, Abbott Elementary is set to run a full twenty-two episode season, more than any other show on ABC. Its fellow comedies, meanwhile, are still limited to shorter seasons, despite getting the 8 PM time slot. Abbott is also a clear ratings success. It's not necessarily their highest-rated scripted show, but it's held its own so far this season, with a 0.33 for its premiere and a 0.32 the next week. That's stronger than how it opened season five (the first two episodes of that season averaged 0.28). Heck, its second episode is also up from its second episode of season four. This is a show that's really been quite stable the last few years, and it's been stable at above-average ratings. There aren't any major concerns about this show's future from a ratings perspective, especially when you factor in multiplatform ratings. It's been performing incredibly well on Hulu this season, and draws in a ton of younger viewers, typically ranking as one of ABC's top multiplaform series in the demo, even if it lags behind in total viewers. While its linear ratings are a touch lower than Scrubs this season, and Shifting Gears last season, it continues to look much safer than those shows, because it has clear value to ABC on streaming, while those shows rely heavily on linear viewing.

I'm not quite ready to label Abbott a 100% lock for renewal just yet. I don't have any scripted show in that category just yet, because ABC's higher-rated scripted shows are all getting up there in age (High Potential likely would be a certain renewal if it had premiered by now - that was its pre-season prediction), so I would still say Abbott is the safest of ABC's fall scripted series. The only issue is that the show is in season six, and ABC doesn't fully own it. It's a co-production with Warner Bros, and so they don't reap all the benefits of the show, as they do with some of their other scripted content. There have also been some statements from the cast (namely creator Quinta Brunson) hinting that the show may not last quite as long as some may expect, due to the show's cast wanting to pursue other project. Recently, though, Sheryl Lee Ralph made a statement to the contrary, saying she wants it to run as long as Grey's Anatomy has. While that was likely hyperbolic (no sitcom has ever lasted that long, most of the longest-running hits ending a good ten seasons earlier), and Ralph was only sharing her own desires, it does hint that the cast isn't necessarily in a rush to end anytime soon. So I'm not all that worried about some off-hand comments from Quinta Brunson from a year ago implying that Abbott could end within the next few seasons. Abbott Elementary begins as a likely renewal.

Celebrity Wheel of Fortune: And now for the show you've all been waiting for me to talk about! I kid, but Friday night game show Celebrity Wheel of Fortune is off to a very strong start to its sixth season. Its premiere was down a single hundredth year-to-year, and it then rose in week two, putting the show up a half-tenth from its year-ago result. That was despite strong competition premiering on CBS, with Sheriff Country putting up a 0.4 in the hour. Celebrity Wheel is a show driven by casual interest, with a wide majority of the audience watching it on linear TV. It's one of ABC's worst performers on Hulu, with only America's Funniest Home Videos performing worse. It needs to perform well on ABC to justify keeping it around, and it is absolutely delivering where it counts. While Shark Tank has clearly suffered in its move, the game shows that replaced it have breathed fresh new life into the night. Celebrity Wheel is keeping ABC competitive on Friday nights, with similar ratings to Sheriff Country and NBC's comedy hour at a much lower cost. It will surely return next season, and is upgraded this week to a certain renewal.

Interactive Schedule:

The TV Ratings Guide	8:00	8:30	9:00	10:00
Mon	Monday Night Football
Tues	Dancing with the Stars			R.J. Decker
Wed	Scrubs	Abbott Elementary	Who Wants To Be a Millionaire	Shark Tank
Thurs	9-1-1		9-1-1: Nashville	Grey's Anatomy
Fri	Celebrity Wheel of Fortune		20/20
Sat	Saturday Night Football
Sun	The Wonderful World of Disney