Just a year after pulling off one of the most surprising renewals in recent memory, Welcome to Flatch has met its demise. Fox has canceled the series after two low-rated seasons. Despite rising 33% from it first season, Flatch remained one of the lowest-rated on all of broadcast TV this year, with a 0.22 average in the 18-49 demographic. Its ratings gains can likely be credited to its time slot upgrade, moving to a 9 PM post-Hell's Kitchen slot this season, as well as a post-NFL airing, and even a 33% rise wasn't enough to justify another season. Holmes, Aya Cash, Sam Straley, Seann William Scott, Taylor Ortega, Krystal Smith and Jaime Pressly starred in the series, which aired its series finale on February 2 after a 27-episode run. This is a correct prediction for The TV Ratings Guide.
Below are the final renew/cancel predictions for the Fox network in the 2022-23 television season. The numbers listed in the table mark the Nielsen rating low, average, and high for each respective program in the Adults 18-49 demographic. The "Y2Y (year-to-year) Change" column denotes how much the series has risen or fallen when compared to its average from the previous season. Since the last update, Fox has opted to cancel drama '9-1-1' and sitcom 'Call Me Kat'. '9-1-1' has already found a new home on ABC and will be airing on that network for its 7th season.
9-1-1: In an unprecedented move, the Fox network Cancelled procedural drama '9-1-1' after a six-season run on the first of May. Once the average of football-inflated 'The Simpsons' falls a bit more, this will mean that Fox has flat-out canceled their highest-rated scripted series. This was an incorrect prediction for this column and adds fuel to the idea that Nielsen ratings matter less and less when it comes to these decisions. '9-1-1' was a series that seemed like a lock all-season long, but even the strongest show on the network is not safe when it is too expensive to keep around. '9-1-1' will air its seventh season on ABC, thus taking its strength in the Nielsen ratings with it. Fox was already in a dire state before but losing their best performer makes their chances of having a decent Fall 2023 even less likely. It is almost certain that whatever Fox decides to air in the same timeslot as ABC's '9-1-1' will be trampled by their former golden child.
Call Me Kat: The Fox network has pulled the plug on 'Call Me Kat' after three seasons. The news came almost immediately after the series dropped to a new series low (0.15) for its finale on Thursday evening. This series was in the "Likely Cancellation" category from October to February but was upgraded after it initially improved when placed after 'Animal Control', thus making this an incorrect prediction. The full-season order it received made it seem like Fox was intent on keeping it around, but the timeslot downgrade from 9 p.m. to 9:30 p.m. was clearly a terrible sign. 'Call Me Kat' being Cancelled is not a total shock, but it definitely seemed to be on the safer side after Production Weekly reported that a fourth season was in development. Ultimately, this was a miscalculation.
9-1-1: Lone Star: '9-1-1: Lone Star' was Renewed by Fox on the same day that they canceled parent series '9-1-1'. This serves as a correct prediction for this column since the series had been a "Certain Renewal" since the season began. Now that '9-1-1' is gone, 'Lone Star' is the closest thing Fox has to a solid scripted performer in the Nielsen ratings. Expect the series to remain one of the highest-rated on Fox during the upcoming television season.
Animal Control: Of the four shows that have yet to be renewed or canceled, 'Animal Control' is the only one that is Likely to be Renewed. This sitcom consistently remained at or above a 0.20 in the Adults 18-49 demographic this spring, a feat that neither 'Kat' nor 'Flatch' managed to accomplish. In addition, Futon Critic is reporting that reruns of 'Animal Control' will be airing on Thursday nights from late May to late June. Though Fox is a wildcard, it is very unlikely that they would be scheduling back-to-back encores of a show they intend to cancel. 'Animal Control' has a 75% chance of being renewed.
Welcome To Flatch: It feels redundant to go over all the reasons why 'Welcome To Flatch' is Likely to be Canceled, but it deserves to be repeated. Remove the NFL-inflated installment and its average falls from a 0.23 to a 0.19, tied for last-place with 'HouseBroken'. It was given a short order instead of a 22-episode package and ended its run with a new season low. And yet, that is still not enough to make this a certain cancellation on the Fox network. 'Flatch' has a 40% chance of being renewed.
Fantasy Island: 'Fantasy Island' is an abysmal performer that can only manage ratings in the 0.14-0.20 range despite airing after a juggernaut like '9-1-1'. It is Certain to be Canceled and has just a 20% chance of being renewed.
HouseBroken: 'HouseBroken' is Likely to be Canceled and has a 30% chance of being renewed. Ratings are lackluster and the scheduling has been erratic, but Fox may have lower standards for summer programming. It still sits comfortably in the red.
Below are the latest renew/cancel predictions for the Fox network in the 2022-23 television season. The numbers listed in the table mark the Nielsen rating low, average, and high for each respective program in the Adults 18-49 demographic. The "Y2Y (year-to-year) Change" column denotes how much the series has risen or fallen when compared to its average from the previous season. Since the last update, '9-1-1: Lone Star', Accused', 'Family Guy', and 'Bob's Burgers' have all declined to new lows.
Welcome To Flatch: Fox's treatment of 'Welcome To Flatch' has truly been a sight to see this year. Though it wrapped up its season over two months ago, the network decided to air reruns of the series on both April 13th (0.12) and April the 20th (0.12). While these encores did not perform much worse than first-run episodes, it is very confusing why the network is deciding to air 'Flatch' repeats in a timeslot that still belongs to 'Call Me Kat'. 'Welcome To Flatch' is a disastrous performer in the Adults 18-49 demographic and was even given a smaller episode order this season when compared to season one's 14-installment package. Providing a sitcom with only 13 episodes during the sophomore year is never a good sign, especially since 'Kat' nabbed a full order of 22. Sitcoms traditionally receive a larger episode count in year two if they are meeting the network's expectations. Being capped at 13 spells doom in most cases. 'The Resident', a series that Fox recently canceled, also had a short, 13-episode order and ended its season around the same time as 'Flatch' did. On the other hand, this show is getting its reruns promoted in commercials and went from being a 9:30 p.m. afterthought to a 9 p.m. centerpiece. 'Flatch' is Likely to be Canceled due to the data provided, but Fox clearly sees something in it that may not be visible to the naked eye. A renewal is not out of the question here, even if it does seem to be on the wrong side of the bubble.
Accused: 'Accused' may have been Renewed for a second season but the anthology drama only continues to sink further into the abyss. The 0.18 rating it posted on April the 25th was 50% below its '9-1-1: Lone Star' lead-in (0.36) and made it the lowest-rated, non-CW show of the night. And even the CW's lineup (0.12/0.11) was not too far behind 'Accused' on that particular evening. 'Accused' is set to return for the 2023-24 television season, but its future beyond that is very uncertain. Going from a 0.45 rating to a 0.18 in a matter of three months is rejection of insane proportions.
Bob's Burgers: While there is no reason to worry about the fate of 'Bob's Burgers', its recent performance in the Adults 18-49 demographic leaves much to be desired. 'Bob's' was granted a special 8 p.m. showing on April 16th and ended up plummeting to a new series low (0.21). While that can be explained away a bit, what cannot be excused is the fact that the series dropped from its 'Great North' lead-in (0.25) by two-hundredths on April 23rd. The 0.23 that 'Bob's' garnered that evening made it the lowest-rated show in the animation lineup. 'Bob's' often outrated 'The Simpsons' in years past, so the fact that it is losing to a weak link like 'The Great North' is beyond appalling. This animated comedy has already been Renewed for two additional seasons, but its value to the network appears to be fading.
Below are the latest renew/cancel predictions for the Fox network in the 2022-23 television season. The numbers listed in the table mark the Nielsen rating low, average, and high for each respective program in the Adults 18-49 demographic. The "Y2Y (year-to-year) Change" column denotes how much the series has risen or fallen when compared to its average from the previous season. Since the last update, one series has been renewed and one has been upgraded. As always, only scripted programming will be taken into account in this column.
Notable Changes: Though it remains in first place (for now), the Adults 18-49 average of 'Accused' (0.94, -0.33) fell by over three-tenths. This type of drop is to be expected given that the program's average is heavily-inflated by the post-football installment. '9-1-1: Lone Star' (0.56, -0.01) shed a single hundredth and held in fourth. 'Alert' (0.38, -0.03) declined by three-hundredths of a point. 'Welcome to Flatch' (0.23, -0.01) and 'Call Me Kat' (0.20, -0.01) each lost a hundredth.
Alert: For episode five, 'Alert' posted another 0.29Adults 18-49rating and crossed the 2-million mark in total viewership for the first time since the premiere. In comparison, fellow freshman drama 'Accused' (0.30) only performed a hundredth better despite having a '9-1-1: Lone Star' lead-in (0.54) that was 50% higher than the TMZ special (0.36) that led into 'Alert'. Though it seemed like 'Alert' was a goner initially, it appears to be holding up rather well. Given that a potential writer's strike is looming over the television industry, a middling performer like 'Alert' is suddenly a bigger asset than it was before. Networks have been handing out renewals rapidly this past week in hopes that the established shows return to production in the case that a strike takes place. 'Alert' has improved to the point where it truly only looks weaker than the '9-1-1' duo and 'Family Guy'. As a result of these factors, the drama is now Likely to be Renewed for another season.
Accused: After looking like the real deal when it debuted in its proper timeslot on January 24th (0.45), 'Accused' completely crumbled on the 31st (0.30). The anthology drama declined by a whopping 33% in the Adults 18-49 demographic and retained just 56% of its 'Lone Star' lead-in (it retained nearly 80% the week prior). This trend is genuinely alarming and makes the series look considerably weaker than it did before. 'Accused' remains Likely to be Renewed but cannot afford to deal with another drop of this caliber.
Welcome To Flatch: 'Welcome To Flatch' wrapped up its second season by sinking to a new season low (0.16) and losing nearly 60% of its 'Hell's Kitchen' lead-in (0.38). This is clearly a terrible note for the series to end on but it went even lower in season one and still secured a renewal. 'Flatch' is once more Likely to be Canceled but a renewal would come as no shock given Fox's bizarre decision-making.
The Cleaning Lady: Fox Renewed'The Cleaning Lady' for a third season on the 1st of February. The sophomore drama clearly took a hit when compared to its season one performance, but it has done well enough to remain in the "Likely Renewal" category since September. If not for the potential writer's strike, it is easy to imagine Fox canceling the drama since it has been dealing with a sophomore slump and was capped at just 12 episodes. Regardless, this is a correct prediction for this column.
