ABC Renew/Cancel Week 2: Scrubs Returns Under the Weather

This week on the ABC Renew/Cancel, several new shows join the fold, including the second season of the revival of a beloved 2000s sitcom. Plus, news about ABC's midseason scheduling hints at the renewal odds of some of ABC's crime dramas.

Certain Cancellation:
N/A

Likely Cancellation:
RJ Decker (0.23, 0.20-0.25)

Leans Cancellation:
N/A

Leans Renewal:
Scrubs (0.32, 0.29-0.36)

Likely Renewal:

Abbott Elementary

Celebrity Wheel of Fortune (0.30)

Shark Tank (0.20, 0.18-0.21)

Who Wants to Be a Millionaire? (0.37, 0.31-0.46)

Certain Renewal:

20/20 (0.21, 0.17-0.24)

America's Funniest Home Videos (0.29, 0.28-0.30)

Dancing with the Stars (1.38, 1.32-1.44)

Coming Soon:

9-1-1

9-1-1: Nashville

Grey's Anatomy

High Potential

Shifting Gears

The Rookie

The Rookie: North

Will Trent

Untitled Grey's Anatomy spinoff

Scrubs: ABC's comedy revival Scrubs returned recently for its second season (or eleventh overall), and the results were pretty mixed. While its 0.36/0.29 premiere rating represents a solid performance overall, both ratings marked a new series low for the revival run, which had dipped to a 0.39 at its weakest point in season one. It's not a major surprise - these revivals do tend to lose steam, and it's been off the air since April. That's likely a major part of why ABC gave it the fall slot over the more-established Shifting Gears. Still, this isn't really where a show wants to return, because it tends to only be downhill from here.

So is Scrubs in danger? I have my doubts about that. It's probably one of the less-safe shows on the fall schedule (RJ Decker notwithstanding), but it's not in cancellation territory yet. Shifting Gears returned with a 0.35 last season, and it ended up holding very well over the course of the season, its season low coming in just four hundredths below its series low. Of course, Shifting Gears wasn't a revival, which do tend to decline more quickly as nostalgia-driven casual viewers check out, but it did display similar viewing tendencies in season one, where it startdd huge and quickly cooled off. So that does bode well for Scrubs.

Something that does not bode very well for Scrubs is its streaming performance, where it also looks similar to Shifting Gears. Its premiere did just OK, peaking at #6 on Hulu and staying on the chart for the first five days after its premiere. The second episode, however, already saw major slippage, down to just a #13 peak and one single day on the chart. That did not prove to be fatal for Shifting Gears, which performed similarly, but it's a warning sign. Scrubs performed better than this last season, and it's now showing signs of losing steam on both linear TV and on streaming.

Scrubs already received a shorter episode order than expected, with its ten-episode order coming in just one episode ahead of its first season, despite creator Bill Lawrence teasing a longer order on Twitter before it was officially renewed. Much of that likely comes down to schedule space, but it is a bit worrisome that the creator expected more episodes during renewal discussions, just for it to essentially have the same number of episodes as season one. This is ultimately not an issue that gives me much reason for concern, as ABC does have a tough juggling act on its hands with their three comedy schedule, but I did feel it was worth giving a passing mention to.

In the end, I think the upcoming episodes of Scrubs will give us a stronger indication of its future. It can easily perform similar to Shifting Gears and stay very steady, or it could drop like many revivals before it have. I'm being cautious with a leans renewal prediction to start, but it's on the higher end of that prediction range. Just because its premiere ratings were underwhelming by its own standards does not necessarily mean ABC is ready to toss it out.

The Rookie and The Rookie: North: Yesterday, we got official confirmation of where The Rookie and its spinoff, The Rookie: North, will be airing, solving one of the major mysteries of ABC's midseason schedule. It's both encouraging and slightly concerning for the Rookie series - ABC is investing in a scripted expansion on Wednesday that is sure to be highly-promoted, but they'll be facing two well-established veteran procedurals in the Chicago series, which have ruled the night for many years. It's a huge risk, especially for new show The Rookie: North, but it's a nice change of pace to see ABC take a scheduling risk rather than their typical safe, minimal change schedules that have seen a steady decrease in scripted hours in recent years. The move is also good news for Will Trent, which now seems guaranteed to keep its Tuesday at 8 slot, eliminating fears that it would have to move to make room for the Rookie shows on Tuesday. It's very bad news for RJ Decker, which now seems guaranteed to be replaced on Tuesday nights by an unscripted program. That means it wasn't capped at seven episodes to make room for a new midseason drama, but rather for a cheaper unscripted filler show. It's wrapped filming, so it won't get an episode extension - and given its ratings, maybe that's for the best.

Interactive Schedule:

The TV Ratings Guide	8:00	8:30	9:00	10:00
Mon	Monday Night Football
Tues	Dancing with the Stars			R.J. Decker
Wed	Scrubs	Abbott Elementary	Who Wants To Be a Millionaire	Shark Tank
Thurs	9-1-1		9-1-1: Nashville	Grey's Anatomy
Fri	Celebrity Wheel of Fortune		20/20
Sat	Saturday Night Football
Sun	The Wonderful World of Disney