FOX Renew/Cancel Week 25: "Family Guy" Fantasy Scheduling

Predictions for 04/21/24

Photo Credit: Fox

Below are the Week 25 renew/cancel predictions for the Fox network in the 2023-24 television season. The numbers listed in the table mark the Nielsen rating low, average, and high for each respective program in the Adults 18-49 demographic. The "Y2Y (year-to-year) Change" column denotes how much the series has grown or declined when compared to its average from the previous season. Scripted and reality are represented in their own separate charts.

Scripted

Reality

The 22nd season of Family Guy wrapped up on Wednesday, April 17th with a meager 0.17 rating in the Adults 18-49 demographic. The long-running animated series has clearly struggled since moving away from Sunday night, even if live ratings barely matter when it comes to deciding whether this series gets renewed or not. Family Guy is clearly here to stay, but it's possible that it may not be on Fox forever. In fact, the recent announcement that Hulu will be the show's exclusive home for two upcoming holiday specials makes a move to streaming seem inevitable.

When looking back at this season, there was clearly a way to keep this series from having to switch nights. If Fox had something else to air in the 9:30 slot on Wednesdays, Family Guy could have easily aired the 6 Wednesday episodes on Sunday. Below is a breakdown of this fantasy scheduling scenario.

09/24/23: On this evening, Krapopolis debuted in the 8 p.m. time slot with an hour-long premiere that was inflated by football. Instead of airing a rerun of The Masked Singer at 9, Fox could have placed two episodes of Family Guy here. This would have served as the show's own one-hour season premiere. Family Guy would have had a decent amount of NFL help, enough to bring it up to a 0.4 rating at the very least. This takes care of 2 episodes.

10/29/23: Fox aired a rerun of Family Guy on October 29th and it managed a 0.24, a rating higher than any of its Wednesday episodes. If an original episode had aired here instead, it would have done the same or better. That takes care of 1 more episode.

12/24/23: A massive NFL lead-in on Christmas Eve catapulted The Simpsons to a 1.8 rating. Family Guy aired as a rerun on this night and managed a 0.43, a rating higher than most of its originals from this season. Had a new Family Guy aired directly after The Simpsons at 8:30, it could have possibly managed a rating in the 0.9-1.2 range. That takes cares of 1 episode.  

01/14/24: The 2 remaining episodes could have aired as part of a one-hour season finale on January 14th. On this evening, an episode of We Are Family managed a football-boosted 1.17 rating. Instead of cartoon repeats taking up the 9 p.m. hour, Family Guy could have closed out its season in this slot.

Fox Renew/Cancel March Madness Concludes!

Our NCAA-style "March Madness" bracket tournament for Fox is now officially over. In the final match-up, Bob's Burgers beat out Family Guy and took home the gold. Congratulations to the Belcher family on their victory!

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FOX Renew/Cancel Week 24: Farmer Wants A Wife But Can’t Get Nielsen’s Blessings + FOX March Madness Voting Concludes

 

Predictions for 04/06/24

Photo Credit: FOX

Below are the Week 24 renew/cancel predictions for the Fox network in the 2023-24 television season. The numbers listed in the table mark the Nielsen rating low, average, and high for each respective program in the Adults 18-49 demographic. The "Y2Y (year-to-year) Change" column denotes how much the series has risen or fallen when compared to its average from the previous season. Scripted and reality are represented in their own separate charts.

Scripted

Reality

Farmer Wants a Wife: The most recent episode of Farmer Wants a Wife posted a 0.20 rating in the Adults 18-49 demographic and was a hundredth higher than it was the week prior. Though that may seem mildly encouraging, it was still a full tenth lower than its Next Level Chef lead-in (0.30). Now that the dust has settled, it appears that Farmer has stabilized in the 0.19-0.21 range. The only problem is that almost everything else in Fox's reality toolbox can perform better than this. Farmer Wants a Wife is currently #14 out of 16 unscripted offerings, only outrating cheap TMZ filler and battered veteran So You Think You Can Dance. The irony is that these ratings would probably be enough for a scripted series to survive on Fox, but the network is doing good enough in terms of unscripted programming that they do not need to keep this one around. As a result, Farmer Wants a Wife remains Likely to be Canceled. 

Alert: Missing Persons Unit: Alert: Missing Persons Unit grew to a 0.17 rating on Tuesday, April 2nd and built on its Cleaning Lady lead-in (0.15). Though it is always a little impressive when a series improves on its lead-in, a 0.17 is still a 0.17. There is no way to spin things to make a rating like this look solid on a network outside of the CW. Alert is still Likely to be Canceled.

Fox Renew/Cancel March Madness Continues!

Our NCAA-style "March Madness" bracket tournament for Fox will be wrapping up with one final round of voting. Last week, the final four faced off in the semifinals. In the battle between two animation staples, it was Family Guy that beat out The Simpsons in a race that was not quite as close as one would expect. Family Guy took home nearly 60% of the vote, while Simpsons was chosen by a little more than 40% of participants. In the other match, Bob's Burgers completely annihilated The Cleaning Lady. The Belcher family received 82% of the vote, while Cleaning Lady took in a measly 18%. For the final match, it is down to Bob's Burgers and Family Guy. Please vote below!

Note: Though we appreciate everyone who voted, the data depicted in the bracket represents the voting that took place during the one-week span between columns. This is being done for the sake of moving the tournament forward.

FOX Renew/Cancel Week 23: Is "Krapopolis" Secretly In Its Second Season? + FOX March Madness Voting Continues!

Predictions for 03/30/24 

Photo Credit: Fox

Below are the Week 23 renew/cancel predictions for the Fox network in the 2023-24 television season. The numbers listed in the table mark the Nielsen rating low, average, and high for each respective program in the Adults 18-49 demographic. The "Y2Y (year-to-year) Change" column denotes how much the series has risen or fallen when compared to its average from the previous season. Because of the WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes, there is a limited amount of scripted programming this spring. As a result, reality television will continue to be included in this column. Now that scripted programming is returning, scripted and reality will be split into two separate charts. 

Scripted

Reality

Krapopolis: Though it almost felt like the star of Fox's fall 2023 lineup for being the only new scripted series on the network, Krapopolis has fallen off the radar since. Ratings have diminished to slivers as those prime football lead-ins are no longer in the picture. The animated comedy can currently be found hovering in the frighteningly low 0.11-0.15 range in the Adults 18-49 demographic. The latest episode of Krap managed a meager 0.13 rating and declined from a Simpsons episode (0.17) that serves as the latter's lowest-rated installment. To cut Krap some slack, retention here really isn't all that different from the 8:30 offerings of years past, but The Simpsons is just so low this spring that the show airing after it can't even afford to drop from it. Regardless, it seems Fox is disappointed in this show's performance. According to Futon Critic, an episode with the production code "KRA-201" aired on February 18th. Since then, episodes 209, 204, 202, and 203 have also aired. This makes it clear that Fox has finished airing the 13-episode first season of Krapopolis and is now trying to burn through episodes from its second production cycle as fast as possible. Episodes with a "20_" production code would probably have been saved for Fall 2024 if Krapopolis was a ratings winner. Instead, it appears Fox has buyer's remorse and is trying to get rid of their Krap stockpile. So, even though Krapopolis scored a three-season renewal last year, it will probably be gone a lot sooner than expected. 

Animal Control: Animal Control climbed to a 0.22 rating in the Adults 18-49 demographic, setting a new season high in the process. This looks great on paper, but it only seemed to happen because its Masked Singer lead-in (0.43) rose significantly and comedy competitor Abbott Elementary was in repeat-mode. Up is up, but this growth does not signify that Animal Control is suddenly building an audience, it just benefited from better circumstances. But, considering the early renewal it got, this is more than enough for it to survive on Fox. 

Hell's Kitchen: Fox recently renewed Hell's Kitchen for two more seasons. This serves as a correct prediction for this column and should come as no surprise. Outside of The Floor and The Masked Singer, Hell's serves as one of the network's strongest reality options. Fox seems to have a solid relationship with Gordon Ramsay, and his shows almost always deliver when it comes to Nielsen ratings. This one was a given. 

Fox Renew/Cancel March Madness Continues!

Our NCAA-style "March Madness" bracket tournament continues this week and will wrap up next week. Alert fans put up a good fight, but it was The Simpsons that pulled ahead. Family Guy, meanwhile, completely trounced Grimsburg in its match-up. The Cleaning Lady pulled off a similar feat against Krapopolis. And Bob's Burgers held a comfortable lead against Animal Control. The remaining two matches are shown below, please vote!

Note: The bracket above depicts the voting data collected between March 23, 2024 and March 30, 2024. Any voting that happens after that cannot be recorded for the sake of moving the tournament forward.

FOX Renew/Cancel Week 22: Hit The Snooze Button on "Alert" + FOX March Madness Voting Begins

Predictions for 03/23/24 

Photo Credit: FOX

Below are the Week 22 renew/cancel predictions for the Fox network in the 2023-24 television season. The numbers listed in the table mark the Nielsen rating low, average, and high for each respective program in the Adults 18-49 demographic. The "Y2Y (year-to-year) Change" column denotes how much the series has risen or fallen when compared to its average from the previous season. Because of the WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes, there is a limited amount of scripted programming this spring. As a result, reality television will continue to be included in this column. Now that scripted programming is returning, scripted and reality will be split into two separate charts. 

Scripted

Reality

Alert: Since its March 5th premiere, Alert: Missing Persons Unit has only gotten weaker and weaker in the Adults 18-49 demographic. The 0.18 rating it posted on premiere night was already a new series low, but it then fell to a 0.17 and most recently to a 0.14. This series is one of Fox's poorest performers, and it is unlikely that things will improve from here. Alert was hardly worth renewing to begin with, but it's hard to imagine that it slips through the cracks again with numbers like these. This sophomore drama remains Likely to be Canceled. 

Family Guy: After a semi-decent start to its Wednesday night stint, Family Guy crumbled in the same way that Alert did (0.20 > 0.16 > 0.14). On a historically-adjusted basis, a 0.14 may very well be this show's poorest performance ever, even when compared to how it was doing before its first cancellation. In terms of raw ratings, it is a clear series low. Of course, ratings hardly matter for a juggernaut like Family Guy, but the time slot downgrade and poor Nielsen numbers signal that Fox is getting ready to get rid of the Griffin family.

Animal Control: Though Animal Control held steady at a 0.21 rating for two weeks, things took a turn for the worse when episode three fell to a meager 0.17. The Joel McHale sitcom retained less than 50% of The Masked Singer (0.38) and set a new series low here. This one is already Renewed for a third season and allegedly performs quite well on digital platforms, but the live ratings are starting to shrink to the point where it's looking like a real eyesore. 

Bob's Burgers: After a two-month hiatus, Fox randomly brought Bob's Burgers back on March 10th to air behind a Simpsons rerun on Oscars night. Since this was also an out-of-time slot airing, it almost seemed like Fox was doing all they could to tank the series. And yet, miraculously, Bob's posted a 0.29 rating and built on its repeat lead-in (0.17) by more than a full tenth! Considering that this will likely be the only 0.3 rating to come out of a Fox cartoon this spring, it is clear that Bob's remains incredibly valuable from a live ratings standpoint. Bob's will once more be placed on a two-month hiatus, with its finale currently set for May 19 at 9:30 p.m. Bob's could have just aired these two episodes in January and properly wrapped up its shortened season, but Fox works in mysterious ways and enjoys erratically tossing episodes into random slots. 

The Great North: On the night when Bob's Burgers occupied the 8:30 p.m. slot with its solid 0.29 rating, The Great North shot up to a 0.21 rating. Once Krapopolis returned to 8:30, Great North crashed back down to a 0.13. It is clear that this series is not anchor material, but it would probably do fine business if it was at the bottom of an hour led by Bob's.

Fox Renew/Cancel March Madness begins!

Beginning this week and continuing for the next few weeks, we'll be running an NCAA-style "March Madness" bracket tournament among FOX shows, featuring their nine scripted shows facing off in matchups in the hopes of being named readers' favorite FOX show. Vote in the polls below:

FOX Renew/Cancel Week 21: The Cleaning Lady Will Be Fired

 

Predictions for 03/09/24

Photo Credit: Fox

Below are the Week 21 renew/cancel predictions for the Fox network in the 2023-24 television season. The numbers listed in the table mark the Nielsen rating low, average, and high for each respective program in the Adults 18-49 demographic. The "Y2Y (year-to-year) Change" column denotes how much the series has risen or fallen when compared to its average from the previous season. Because of the WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes, there is a limited amount of scripted programming this winter. As a result, reality television will continue to be included in this column. Now that scripted programming is returning, scripted and reality will be split into two separate charts. 

Scripted

Reality

The Cleaning Lady: The Cleaning Lady returned for its third season on Tuesday, March 5th, but its numbers were clearly not what they used to be. The crime drama put together a 0.20 in the Adults 18-49 demographic, a rating that serves as a new series low for the program. This result felt inevitable given the extended hiatus and loss of the 9-1-1 lead-in, but that does not make the outcome any better. As a result of this underperformance, The Cleaning Lady is Likely to be Canceled for the time being. Fox is clearly having to rely more on reality programming for sufficient Nielsen ratings, because their scripted roster just isn't delivering. This one just doesn't have enough value for them to keep it around when something like Name That Tune could do about the same or better for a lesser cost.

Alert: Alert: Missing Persons Unit essentially falls into the same boat as The Cleaning Lady. The police procedural opened season two with a pitiful 0.18 rating, setting a new series low out the gate. This one definitely showed some signs of life when it was growing from Fantasy Island last season, but it seems any potential it might have had in winter 2023 has evaporated. Alert is Likely to be Canceled.

Animal Control: Animal Control started its second season with a modest 0.21 rating and shed about half of its Masked Singer lead-in (0.41). In comparison, its first season ended with a 0.22 rating behind a 0.41. To characterize this performance as solid would be a massive stretch, but the sitcom is clearly doing about the same as it was last season. And since Fox has already Renewed the series for a third season, they are clearly okay with this below-average delivery. 

Family Guy: Family Guy is yet another Fox show to return with a new series low this March. The animation staple was booted to Wednesdays and managed just a 0.20 rating in its time slot debut. Considering its lead-in was only a hundredth higher and it's airing in the 9:30 slot, this is a fine performance. It is certainly better than the abysmal Sunday lineup that is regularly full of 0.1s. Still, Family Guy is a series that was far more reliable in years past. This level is well below what it's used to, even on a historically-adjusted basis. 

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