This week on the NBC Renew/Cancel, NBC rounds out the debut of its fall schedule, as St. Denis Medical and The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins premiere new seasons. Keep reading for my initial predictions for both series!
Certain Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Cancellation:
The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins (0.18)
Newlyweds (0.19, 0.17-0.21)
Leans Renewal:
Happy's Place (0.23, 0.20-0.25)
Law & Order (0.20, 0.17-0.26)
Line of Fire (0.22, 0.17-0.26)
Likely Renewal:
St. Denis Medical (0.28)
The Traitors: New Blood (0.29, 0.24-0.37)
The Voice (0.35, 0.29-0.44)
Certain Renewal:
Chicago Fire (0.38, 0.29-0.46)
Chicago Med (0.43, 0.38-0.46)
Chicago PD (0.32, 0.24-0.35)
Dateline NBC (0.22, 0.20-0.24)
Law & Order: SVU (0.30, 0.23-0.42)
Saturday Night Live (0.76, 0.81-0.71)
Coming Soon:
The Rockford Files
Sunset PI
The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins: Heading into its second season, it was clear that Reggie Dinkins had a tough road ahead. While generous with renewals for freshman sitcoms, NBC isn't afraid to cancel second-season comedies if they are underperforming. There were already troubling signs for the Tracy Morgan comedy in season one, as it dropped from a 0.37 time slot premiere to a 0.19 by its eighth episode. It was clear that the big names in the cast drew viewers to sample the show, but they weren't going to stick around. Where the bottom is remains to be clear, but it's already hit a new low for its premiere. On Monday, Reggie Dinkins drew just a 0.18 in the demo, retaining just 64% of its lead-in, which wasn't all that high to begin with. That's actually down from the broadcast premiere of The Paper, which aired in this slot last fall (before it was pulled). It's hard to imagine that's going to cut it for NBC.
I'm going to try to be generous with my initial prediction. I did the same with Newlyweds, which premiered a touch lower (albeit in much circumstances), and it turned things around a bit in week two. Maybe Reggie Dinkins can do the same, but that's not something I'm counting on. As I said, this poor return is part of a longer trend that we already saw in season one. It needed to return strong and rebound from its lows in season two, like St. Denis Medical did when it returned for its second season last year. It didn't do that, and that's a terrible sign for it. With Newlyweds' week two increase, Reggie Dinkins is now the lowest-rated series on NBC, lower than even their Friday series and the 10 PM programs. That is an embarrassment, and it's going to make it very difficult to argue it deserves a renewal.
On top of its poor linear showing, its streaming performance has been downright horrid. It wasn't a strong performer in season one, either, but it couldn't even chart on Peacock in the days following its season premiere this time. It's the only show on NBC (scripted or otherwise) to fail to chart. Even Happy's Place, which similarly made little impact on the streaming charts last season, has managed to become a regular presence on the chart thus far this season. Reggie Dinkins is a weak link for NBC in every regard. It starts as a leans cancellation prediction, but I can't blame you if you think this is too lenient. I just need a bit more data before giving it the more severe prediction it probably deserves.
St. Denis Medical: This week wasn't a stellar return for St. Denis Medical either, but with a 0.28, it still had a respectable showing that puts it above every other NBC comedy. In fact, after dismal showings for some of NBC's top-rated dramas last week, there are only two shows on the network that haven't gone lower than this so far this season.
St. Denis Medical has been a bright spot for NBC, and a show that has provided some hope for a comedy revival on the network. While it seems it'll be unable to replicate the stellar stability it saw in the ratings in season two, it also seems likely it'll be their highest-rated comedy again this season. Its streaming performance remains solid, peaking at #3 this week. That is lower than last season, when it debuted on top, but it also shows that there's still plenty of life in the show. It could have returned stronger, and I am going to keep a watch on its ratings to make sure it doesn't dip into concerning territory, but there's not much reason to be concerned about it at this point. It's very likely to be the first NBC comedy to make it to four seasons since The Good Place (presumably alongside Happy's Place). It's a likely renewal to start the season.
