ABC Renew/Cancel Week 5: A Farewell to RJ Decker

This week on the ABC Renew/Cancel, I give my final call on RJ Decker, as the sophomore ABC drama wraps its second season with haste. Plus, some thoughts on the increasingly-precarious situation Shark Tank finds itself in, with the show set to be booted from its current time slot in January.

Certain Cancellation:
N/A

Likely Cancellation:
RJ Decker (0.23, 0.20-0.25)

Leans Cancellation:
N/A

Leans Renewal:
Scrubs (0.34, 0.29-0.38)

Likely Renewal:

9-1-1 (0.43, 0.40-0.45)

9-1-1: Nashville (0.33, 0.32-0.33)

Abbott Elementary (0.32, 0.29-0.35)

Grey's Anatomy (0.25, 0.24-0.25)

Shark Tank (0.18, 0.13-0.21)

Who Wants to Be a Millionaire? (0.30, 0.17-0.46)

Certain Renewal:

20/20 (0.26, 0.17-0.30)

America's Funniest Home Videos (0.29, 0.27-0.33)

Dancing with the Stars (1.44, 1.32-1.56)

Celebrity Wheel of Fortune (0.31, 0.30-0.32)

Coming Soon:

High Potential

Shifting Gears

The Rookie

The Rookie: North

Will Trent

Untitled Grey's Anatomy spinoff

RJ Decker: Going into the season, all eyes were on RJ Decker. It was set for a move behind TV's highest-rated series, as it shifted to a fall launch despite middling ratings in season one. Just weeks into the season, however, the show already feels like an afterthought. It's pretty much unprecedented in modern television history for a show to already conclude its season before the end of October, but that's exactly what happened with RJ Decker, which received just a seven-episode order for season two. That's somehow down from its first season, which itself was just nine episodes. With sixteen episodes over the span of two seasons, RJ Decker has fewer episodes than all of the other ABC dramas typically air in just one season. While syndication isn't exactly a major consideration these days, several other ABC series are on the air in broadcast and cable syndication, including 9-1-1 and The Rookie. RJ Decker isn't anywhere near where it would need to be for a syndication package, and with these short seasons, it won't get there anytime soon. It also doesn't have a Netflix deal like Grey's Anatomy and Will Trent, so it doesn't bring in any additional revenue for ABC, only being available on Hulu and Disney+, where its performance is fairly mediocre. Its streaming performance is not abysmal, but even last season, it wasnt' among ABC's top performers, and all of their other dramas perform better.

RJ Decker's linear ratings leave much to be desired, too. While there's much debate about just how much of Dancing with the Stars' astronomical 1.44 average comes from viewing on ABC and how much comes from its Disney+ simulcast (a situation unique to DWTS among entertainment programs), it's very clear that its retention is poor. While a 26% year-to-year increase is better than nothing, I jsut don't think it's going to cut it, given that its lead-in is so much larger this season. Yes, it did avoid hitting some of those ugly lows of season one, but ABC can do a lot better than a 0.23 average behind Dancing with the Stars. This is more than a point lower than High Potential last year, despite DWTS actually strengthening this season, and it;'s also much lower than the DWTS After-Party special that aired behind the second night of the DWTS premiere this season. ABC is in a strong enough place that they don't need to keep RJ Decker around just for the sake of renewing it. It already lasted a season longer than the ratings warranted to begin with.

With all that considered, it makes sense why ABC isn't that high on RJ Decker. What doesn't make sense is why they only ordered seven episodes if this season was, indeed, a second chance, rather than just a way to fill a time slot until the midseason shows could return. There is room on ABC's schedule midseason, with the Rookie shows set to take on Wednesday, leaving a hole on Tuesday at 10. We don't know yet what will air with Will Tent and High Potential, but there certainly seems to be a spot open that RJ Decker could've aired in if ABC so desired. In capping RJ Decker at a seven-episode season concluding in October, ABC made a clear decision - they're ready to move on. It ends as a likely cancellation, right where it premiered.

Shark Tank: Speaking of 10 PM ABC shows that are struggling, Shark Tank has really cooled off after a respectable start to the season. The long-running reality series debuted to a 0.21 in the demo, but has averaged just 0.14 over its last two episodes. Part of the decline can be clearly attributed to the decline in its lead-in. Who Wants to Be a Millionaire was in the 0.17-0.20 range during its brief fall run, while Shark Tank premiered with a 0.21 at 9 PM behind a 0.29 from Scrubs. However, it grew from Millionaire in its second week (0.21 vs 0.20), so its decline can't be solely blamed on Millionaire. Shark Tank's ratings woes aren't new - we saw it drop as low as 0.11 last year. In fact, its current 0.18 average is up a tick from its 0.17 average last season. Even the paltry 0.13 for its fifth episode is up from the fifth episode of the previous season. That's why I'm still pretty confident in a renewal prediction, despite the poor results.

However, there is one big question: where is Shark Tank going to air next year? We know that the Rookie shows are taking over the 9-11 hours on Wednesday, so Shark Tank is going to lose its slot. ABC hasn't announced where it's moving yet, but assuming it doesn't have an RJ Decker-esque ultra-short season (which would be a tremendous surprise), it'll be heading some place new. That could be good news for it, or it could be bad new. If it makes it out of the 10 PM slot, that will surely help matters greatly. This isn't a 10 PM show, and that continues to show in the ratings. With The Bachelor, American Idol and the Tuesday dramas all likely to assume 8-10 PM slots, it doesn't seem entirely likely that the midseason move will solve Shark Tank's biggest issue. Also of concern is what will happen to the show next season, if it does indeed move to Sunday, Monday, or Tuesday. All of those nights are filled in the fall - either by Disney movies (which ABC could do away with, but they haven't shown any desire to), Monday Night Football, or Dancing with the Stars (I can't imagine ABC wasting that lead-in to boost a veteran with such poor ratings). Assuming the Rookie block works out, moving Shark Tank back to Wednesday in the fall just to keep shifting it around midseason isn't a feasible solution, either. For arguably the first time in its run, Shark Tank is finding itself a major headache to schedule. Could that prove to be its demise? I won't bet on it, but ABC has to figure out a permanent solution. It still, nevertheless, is a likely renewal.

Interactive Schedule:

The TV Ratings Guide	8:00	8:30	9:00	10:00
Mon	Monday Night Football
Tues	Dancing with the Stars			R.J. Decker
Wed	Scrubs	Abbott Elementary	Who Wants To Be a Millionaire	Shark Tank
Thurs	9-1-1		9-1-1: Nashville	Grey's Anatomy
Fri	Celebrity Wheel of Fortune		20/20
Sat	Saturday Night Football
Sun	The Wonderful World of Disney