This week on the NBC Renew/Cancel, a veteran drama finds itself back in trouble after recent developments, as the season draws closer to its conclusion.
Certain Cancellation:
Brilliant Minds (0.14, 0.11-0.18)
Likely Cancellation:
The Hunting Party (0.16, 0.10-0.22)
Leans Cancellation:
On Brand with Jimmy Fallon (0.17, 0.14-0.22)
Stumble (0.20, 0.11-0.61)
The Wall (0.16, 0.12-0.19)
Leans Renewal:
Law & Order (0.24, 0.20-0.29)
Likely Renewal:
The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins (0.38, 0.19-1.38)
The Voice (0.28, 0.19-0.42)
Certain Renewal:
Dateline NBC (0.18, 0.15-0.26)
Saturday Night Live (0.64, 0.43-0.91)
Already Renewed:
Chicago Fire (0.34, 0.29-0.39)
Chicago Med (0.34, 0.28-0.39)
Chicago PD (0.29, 0.25-0.34)
Happy's Place (0.25, 0.18-0.33)
Law & Order: SVU (0.30, 0.21-0.33)
St. Denis Medical (0.31, 0.24-0.37)
Law & Order: Last week, NBC announced the pickup of Law & Order's spinoff, SVU, for another season on the air. They also announced the cancellation of Peacock spinoff Law & Order: Organized Crime. This leaves Law & Order as Dick Wolf's only ongoing scripted series with its fate still hanging in the balance.
I upgraded Law & Order to a likely renewal just a few weeks ago, with my main reasoning being that it's doing well enough to avoid a surprise cancellation at the very end of the season. I remain doubtful that NBC will cancel a Dick Wolf series with respectable ratings without any advanced warning. Law & Order was much weaker the last time it was canceled. It was a genuine drag on the schedule, ranking as one of NBC's lowest-rated scripted series that season. While clearly weaker than SVU, the gap between the two isn't egregious. Law & Order's 0.25 average puts it above four other scripted series on NBC (including the already-renewed Happy's Place). That linear average would generally be enough to get renewed, so I didn't think it would put Law & Order in much jeopardy.
However, there's a reason Law & Order hasn't been renewed yet while all of Dick Wolf's other NBC series have been. I had the show as a leans renewal prediction for much of the season for a reason: NBC has little shelf space thanks to their sports deals and their stable roster of veterans, with Wednesday nights entirely off-limits, SVU consistently taking up an hour, Dateline taking up two, and The Voice taking up at least an hour on Mondays in the fall (and maybe more, with longer episodes and a spring run both remaining possible). That leaves NBC with little wiggle room. There will likely be two hours of comedy, so count another two hours as filled. That leaves three possible hours to be filled, with a full crop pilots ordered for next season. We haven't seen this many pilots from any one network in a while. Even last season, when NBC debuted four new dramas, two of them were ordered off-cycle for midseason debuts. This season, they have five pilots on the drama side (and three more comedies). If NBC really likes their pilots, we could see three or even four of them ordered. That would leave them needing to cancel some of their weaker performers that may have otherwise scraped by. The Hunting Party is the most obvious example (as Brilliant Minds would've been canceled this year regardless of a busy pilot season), but maybe Law & Order could find itself unlucky. NBC is showing at least some uncertainty about it with this delayed pickup.
Law & Order's streaming has long been a concern. Last season, its MP+35 season average was lower than both Brilliant Minds and The Hunting Party, and barely any higher than The Irrational. While it's claimed (though not yet backed up in concrete numbers, with NBC keeping a tight grasp on those) that the Law & Orders have improved on Peacock this year, we know for sure that Law & Order has previously been a much weaker streaming performer than Dick Wolf's other dramas. If last season's average notably trailed two shows that barely got renewed, then it's reasonable for NBC to not be too thrilled about its performance. Dick Wolf's name being attached can certainly help a show, and it probably helped it last season. He could get it renewed again - I expect him to - but even Dick Wolf shows do get canceled, especially when they're underperforming.
That SVU was quietly renewed for two seasons last year while Law & Order only got a one-season pickup is another concern. With Organized Crime being canceled, NBC seems to be moving away from the Law & Order franchise a bit (barring a CBS-esque pickup of an as-of-yet-unannounced spinoff, which they have done in the past). They only committed to one season of Law & Order, because they have the data to know it's not performing on the level of their other Wolf dramas. And maybe they're ready to part with it, perhaps replacing it with a different Dick Wolf series, which they have in development.
On its face, Law & Order is doing enough to survive. When you look under the surface a bit, you do begin to understand why NBC's not in a rush to renew it for a 26th season. Organized Crime was canceled a few seasons ago despite OK linear ratings, and maybe Law & Order similarly winds up drawing the short end of the stick in favor of new dramas. I'd still bet on Law & Order returning, and it's more likely to be moved to 10 or given a midseason return than outright canceled, but I do think it's on the bubble. It, like every scripted show besides SNL, is awaiting a renewal for a reason. It moves back down to a leans renewal prediction this week.
Law & Order: SVU: As stated above, SVU has been renewed for a 28th season. It's been a renewal prediction all season, and a certain renewal prediction since November, so this is a correct prediction. The only catch is that the show was technically already renewed, having quietly earned a two-season pickup last May. That helps explain why an obvious renewal like SVU had its renewal drawn out until May last year, and it does show NBC's commitment to keeping one of their strongest series running despite its old age. It's unusual for a two-season pickup to only be announced eleven months later, but regardless, the end result is the same: SVU will be back next season, as was always expected.
Interactive Schedule:| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | St. Denis Medical | Reggie Dinkins | The Voice | Brilliant Minds | ||
| Tues | NBA on NBC | |||||
| Wed | Chicago Med | Chicago Fire | Chicago PD | |||
| Thurs | Law & Order | Law & Order: SVU | The Hunting Party | |||
| Fri | Happy's Place | Stumble | Dateline NBC | |||
| Sat | Encores | |||||
| Sun | Sunday Night Basketball | |||||
Renewed
Certain Renew
Likely Renew
Leans Renew
Leans Cancel
Likely Cancel
Certain Cancel
Canceled
