An ABC freshman wrapped its season last week, meaning it's time for me to give what will likely be my final thoughts on the series' renewal odds for this season. Plus, ABC Renew/Cancel March Madness kicks into full gear, as either Doctor Odyssey or Grey's Anatomy advance from last week's play-in round, as the Elite Eight round begins!
Certain Cancellation:
N/A
Likely Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Cancellation:
Doctor Odyssey (0.28, 0.22-0.40)
Leans Renewal:
The Rookie (0.28, 0.22-0.34)
Likely Renewal:
Grey's Anatomy (0.23, 0.19-0.31)
Certain Renewal:
9-1-1 (0.41, 0.31-0.53)
Shifting Gears (0.39, 0.30-0.66)
Will Trent (0.37, 0.30-0.50)
Already Ending:
The Conners
Already Renewed:
Abbott Elementary
High Potential
Shifting Gears: Last week, ABC's newest comedy wrapped up its first season after a ten-episode run. Shifting Gears began its season as the highest-rated comedy on TV, but it quickly came down to earth. Delayed by then-president Biden's farewell speech, its second episode crashed about 40%, though it rose the week after, and settled in the 0.4 range for a few weeks after. It then took a week off, and returned up against one of the highest-rated shows on all of TV: Survivor. Ratings were far from disastrous, but it still hit a new series low of 0.30. It was a drop of more than a tenth from the prior episode, and the first time since its premiere that its lead-out, Abbott Elementary, grew from it. Abbott would go on to grow from or match Shifting Gears each week from that point on, and Shifting Gears began to look like the weaker of ABC's two comedies. Still, it's a strong comedy hour, and one ABC probably has few complaints about. With a 0.39 average, Shifting Gears is ABC's #2 show this season overall, even if it rated behind 9-1-1, Abbott Elementary and Will Trent in recent weeks. In all, the show is looking like a solid entry for now, perhaps not the breakout hit that it looked like at the start, but a decent performer that can rate decently well against tough competition from top performers on the other three networks (CBS and Fox both air their #1 shows in the hour, while NBC airs its #2 show). Its streaming performance has noticeably tailed off in recent weeks, but towards the beginning of its run (in early February), ABC boasted about the show being the highest-rated show on TV in MP+7 ratings. Even if its ratings have dropped in the multiplatform ratings since then (ratings from a few weeks after that had it at a 1.08 in MP+3 ratings), it's still doing well enough in seemingly every metric to justify bringing it back. Time will tell if ABC has found its next comedy staple, but Shifting Gears has clearly done enough to stick around for now. It's a CERTAIN RENEWAL.
The Rookie: Last week, The Rookie had arguably its best showing of the season, with a 0.31 behind Will Trent's 0.33, 94% retention (its best retention all season) and a near league-average result (just a tenth below the 0.32 league average). The Rookie isn't a powerhouse in linear, but it's doing fairly decent, and it has clearly improved its footing since moving to an earlier time slot, which is really all you can ask. It aired at 9 PM last season, and mostly rated in the 0.3 range, so it's been very steady (currently down 10%, with only Will Trent having a better trend among ABC scripted veterans). It's well on track to becoming the first ABC drama since Castle, also starring Nathan Fillion, to make it to season eight, though it only being co-owned by ABC does give me pause that contact negotiations could stall, as they were said to be tense last year. It LEANS RENEWAL, though its performance in linear ratings, and especially on streaming, would warrant a stronger prediction if not for potential contractual issues.
ABC Renew/Cancel March Madness continues!
Last week, voting began on the ABC Renew/Cancel March Madness, with a single match to kick it off, pitting ABC's two lowest-rated series - #8 seed Doctor Odyssey and #9 seed Grey's Anatomy - against one another for the opportunity to advance to the second round. It was Grey's Anatomy, a legacy series with a large fanbase and a history of ratings success, that came out on top. It'll face a tough challenge in the second round, going face-to-face with 9-1-1, ABC's highest-rated series. Also facing off are breakout drama High Potential and acclaimed veteran comedy Abbott Elementary, new sitcom Shifting Gears and The Rookie, a drama with a large fanbase that pushed it to the finals last year, and veteran Tuesday drama Will Trent and ending sitcom The Conners. Four will advance to the Final Four next week! You can vote in the first poll below, and return next week for four new polls. In the meantime, you can also vote in our March Madness tournaments for the CW, NBC, CBS, and Fox.
Interactive Schedule:
| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | The Bachelor | The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives | ||||
| Tues | Will Trent | The Rookie | High Potential | |||
| Wed | Shifting Gears | Abbott Elementary | Celebrity Jeopardy! | What Would You Do? | ||
| Thurs | 9-1-1 | Doctor Odyssey | Grey's Anatomy | |||
| Fri | Shark Tank | 20/20 | ||||
Renewed
Certain Renew
Likely Renew
Leans Renew
Leans Cancel
Likely Cancel
Certain Cancel
Canceled
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments!
