Certain Cancellation:
N/A
Likely Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Cancellation:
Doctor Odyssey (0.28, 0.22-0.40)
Leans Renewal:
The Rookie (0.28, 0.22-0.34)
Likely Renewal:
Grey's Anatomy (0.23, 0.19-0.31)
Certain Renewal:
9-1-1 (0.41, 0.31-0.53)
Shifting Gears (0.40, 0.30-0.66)
Will Trent (0.38, 0.30-0.50)
Already Ending:
The Conners
Already Renewed:
Abbott Elementary
High Potential
Grey's Anatomy: An iconic veteran series with nearly as many seasons to its name as all of ABC's other scripted series put together, Grey's Anatomy is clearly past its heyday. The series is down 45% this season amid a time slot demotion, for a 0.23 season average. It's the first season in its twenty-one season history that it's been a below-average performer. You can't entirely blame it for that drop. Doctor Odyssey is a terrible lead-in, and very few shows are rating above the league average at 10 PM anymore (just one this season, Chicago PD). While Grey's Anatomy's decline was fairly predictable, and makes sense in context, it is still a bit disappointing to see it rating this low. Last week, it tied its series low - a 0.19. That's the lowest rating for any scripted series on ABC this season, and of eight scripted series in all, Grey's is the lowest-rated. We're not used to seeing a show that was a powerhouse for so long do quite this badly, even if it has had off seasons before. Heck, that 0.19 matches the finale rating of winter filler Scamanda, and is lower than the finale of fellow Thursday filler show Extreme Makeover: Home Edition, two shows that (which airing in earlier lots) weren't exactly considered hits. At this point in its run, Grey's Anatomy is not being kept around for same-day ratings. It's somewhat of a liability from a linear ratings perspective at this point (though I can't imagine any other show would do well in its slot), but it remains a cash cow. International sales remain strong, making Disney more money than any other ABC series. It's also a strong force on streaming, with a February press release from ABC stating that its L+7 multiplatform average was a 1.32, the #10 series on all of broadcast TV. That is a step down from previous seasons, and only enough to be #7 among ABC's programs (Will Trent was just two hundredths above, so it's possible that Grey's has pulled ahead in that month), so the show does appear to be slipping in all regards. However, these delayed ratings are still more than enough to justify bringing the show back, rather than canceling a show that has meant so much to ABC over the years. That being said, I do think ABC needs to start considering an exit strategy here. Ratings keep declining for this show, and while international sales and streaming deals to keep it profitable, viewers seem to be indicating that it's getting to be time to go. It won't be this season, ABC surely respects this show and makes enough off of it to give it a proper farewell, but I think we're getting somewhat close to the end. It's a LIKELY RENEWAL this time around, though.
Doctor Odyssey: I was tough on Doctor Odyssey last week, when it returned from its hiatus to a low 0.25 behind a 0.53 from 9-1-1. That was a disastrous return, and one that I can't imagine ABC being very happy about. This week, though, it looked a bit better. Not only did it stay stead after 9-1-1 dropped nearly a tenth, it didn't have Grey's Anatomy growing from it this time around (last week, Grey's matched Odyssey in the rounded rating for the whole hour, but rose from the 0.21 Odyssey received for the second half-hour). Its half-hours also look a bit better this week, with 0.27/0.22 halves versus last week's 0.28/0.21 halves. In general, though, much of what I said still stands: Doctor Odyssey is the worst performer of this ABC block in general, getting similar to Grey's in a much better slot and with an excellent lead-in (one that shares a creator). In delayed ratings, the show is the clear weak link, always trending the worst of the three on streaming. Last week's L+7 ratings just came out, and Odyssey received a 0.4 (a gain of just 0.15), while Grey's was a 0.52 and 9-1-1 was a 0.74. It's a misfire in every regard, and the only ABC scripted show this season that wasn't listed as a top 10 performer in the demo in the MP+7 18-49 demo in the press release from ABC that I referenced above. In December, ABC listed it as averaging 1.13 in that metric. Considering how front-loaded the show was as a whole, it stands to reason that it's performing a good deal lower now. Doctor Odyssey is not completely dead yet, and they may be more willing to give a struggling show from Ryan Murphy a second chance, but things are still not looking great for it. As their lowest-rated show in multiplatform ratings, it's the easiest show for them to cut, and they already have an obvious replacement in line with 9-1-1: Nashville. It still LEANS CANCELLATION.
ABC Renew/Cancel March Madness begins!
The ABC Renew/Cancel is back this week! Last season, the canceled Grey's Anatomy spinoff Station 19 went all the way and took home the championship over The Rookie with 97% of the vote. With Station 19 out of contention this year, there will certainly be a new champion this time around. 9-1-1 is our #1 seed this year. It, along with six other shows (including The Conners, which hasn't yet premiered but is ranked as a #6 seed due to its average last year), will get a bye to the Elite Eight. ABC's two lowest-rated series, Doctor Odyssey and Grey's Anatomy, will face off in the play-in round this week, to see which show will make it to the Elite Eight next week. You can vote in the first poll below, and return next week for four new polls. In the meantime, you can also vote in our March Madness tournaments for the CW, NBC, and CBS.
Interactive Schedule:
| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | The Bachelor | The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives | ||||
| Tues | Will Trent | The Rookie | High Potential | |||
| Wed | Shifting Gears | Abbott Elementary | Celebrity Jeopardy! | What Would You Do? | ||
| Thurs | 9-1-1 | Doctor Odyssey | Grey's Anatomy | |||
| Fri | Shark Tank | 20/20 | ||||
Renewed
Certain Renew
Likely Renew
Leans Renew
Leans Cancel
Likely Cancel
Certain Cancel
Canceled
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments!
