Predictions for 10/13/24
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| Photo Credit: FOX |
Below are the October 13th renew/cancel predictions for the Fox network in the 2024-25 television season. The numbers listed in the table mark the Nielsen rating low, average, and high for each respective program in the Adults 18-49 demographic. The "Y2Y (year-to-year) Change" column denotes how much the series has grown or declined when compared to its average from the previous season.
Universal Basic Guys: Fox's latest animated offering is currently the network's top-rated scripted program, but that figure is completely misleading. Though Universal Basic Guys did start its run with a football-boosted 1.18 rating, it completely fell off a cliff the following week (0.19). Some indirect NFL help got it back up a bit in episode three (0.39), but it was back down to a 0.19 in its first post-Simpsons episode, even as its lead-in managed a 0.33. The week after, The Simpsons (0.23) lost a full tenth, but Guys miraculously held steady. Though a 0.19 is not a particularly good rating, this does show that Guys may have found its floor. However, even if it does decline some more, the series has already been Renewed for a second season, so fans of this series will not have to worry about its fate this year.
Rescue: HI-Surf: Rescue: HI-Surf did not take advantage of its direct NFL lead-in as much as Guys did, but the new drama still launched with a solid 1.11 rating. The only problem is that it dropped to a 0.20 just twenty-five hours later. It declined to a 0.17 the week after, but it finally ticked up (0.18) in its fourth episode. For now, this series begins as a Likely Renewal. Fox gifted it a football boost on premiere night and is providing it with the post-Super Bowl slot, so they clearly want the series to succeed. HI-Surf has not fallen to the egregious lows of The Cleaning Lady or Alert and has the network's full backing, so it is safe to say that it will be sticking around.
The Simpsons: The Simpsons has yet to have any direct football help this season, a rarity for a series that usually enjoys heavy football inflation during the fall months. And yet, if football-boosted episodes of Universal Basic Guys and HI-Surf were taken out of the picture, it would currently be Fox's highest-rated scripted series. This could be seen as a blow to the narrative that The Simpsons is nothing more than a relic living off NFL overrun fumes, but Fox is doing so poorly right now that being their top-rated show doesn't mean much. Nonetheless, The Simpsons is a Certain Renewal. Expect a multi-season pickup in the near future.
9-1-1: Lone Star: In September, it was announced that season five of 9-1-1: Lone Star will be its last. This ultimately serves as a correct prediction for The TV Ratings Guide. There was a time when Lone Star was a ratings juggernaut, but it has since taken a massive hit, as recent episodes hover in the 0.24-0.27 range. For Fox, this is still relatively solid, but it is not good enough to justify the costs that come with this aging veteran.
Bob's Burgers: Bob's Burgers had a rough start to the season (0.20), but it was able to grow in week two (0.24) to a more passable rating. The Belcher family has clearly seen better days, but this longtime staple is still a Certain Renewal. Bob's was the highest-rated Fox cartoon on October 6th and clearly has more life in it than some of the other animated sitcoms. Bob's Burgers will surely stay in business for a little while longer.
Murder in a Small Town: Murder in a Small Town began with a 0.22 and has since descended to a 0.18. Its ratings are modest at best, but it still serves as an improvement over the Tuesday dramas from the spring. It begins as a Likely Renewal.
Accused: Accused returned for season two with an abysmal 0.16 rating in the Adults 18-49 demographic, but it still starts as a Likely Renewal, albeit a shaky one. Fox has handed renewals to weaker performers, so it would not be a surprise if this one sticks around. However, if ratings dwindle from here, it may be downgraded.
Krapopolis: The lowest-rated show on Fox is also one of the safest as Krapopolis has already been renewed through the 2025-26 season. As far as live ratings go, it is in for a massive sophomore slump. This series no longer gets the type of NFL help it had in its inaugural season, and any football juice that manages to trickle down to the 9:30 p.m. time slot will be minimal.
