This week on the ABC Renew/Cancel, we take another look at Ryan Murphy's Thursday night dramas, as some new news and another week of ratings shakes things up a bit.
Certain Cancellation:
N/A
Likely Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Renewal:
N/A
Already Ending:
The Conners
Yet to Premiere:
Abbott Elementary
The Rookie
Shifting Gears
Will Trent
9-1-1: Last week, it was announced that ABC is developing a new offshoot of their #1 show, 9-1-1. This isn't unprecedented territory, as 9-1-1 also spawned a spinoff two seasons into its run on Fox - 9-1-1: Lone Star. It's easy to see why ABC would want to continue building the franchise: while Lone Star never matched 9-1-1's popularity, it lasted five seasons and was consistently one of Fox's top performers. It rated #2 among Fox's scripted programming for its first four seasons, only behind 9-1-1 itself. Disney has also made it very clear how much they value their working relationship with Ryan Murphy, who has four shows - 9-1-1, Doctor Odyssey, Grotesquerie and American Sports Story - airing this fall on Disney-owned stations, with several more on the way in the near future. With a spinoff in development, and ratings still strong enough to make it TV's #1 scripted show overall, 9-1-1 looks like a sure bet to return for another season next year. There is, of course, a question of how much longer the show can actually continue. It is expensive, which was why Fox didn't renew it despite its hit ratings, but it also brings in far more revenue beyond just those hit first-run ratings, with international deals, syndication prospects, and a continued impressive performance on streaming. Next year will only mark its third on ABC, and I do expect it to continue for a few more years, even if this season's ratings so far have been on the lower end of what we'd expect for it (something that can be said about nearly every show that's returned so far). It remains a CERTAIN RENEWAL.
Doctor Odyssey: Ryan Murphy's other show on ABC is Doctor Odyssey, which doesn't look to have nearly the same staying power as 9-1-1. The show dropped nearly a full tenth - from 0.40 to 0.31 - after its first episode, with lead-out Grey's Anatomy matching it in the demo and actually increasing from the previous week. That drop isn't exactly unexpected, as reception to the show has been mixed at best. That means further larger-than-usual declines aren't out of the question, although it could just as easily stabilize in the coming weeks. Lead-in 9-1-1 was noticeably down as well, which didn't help, and it also faced compatible scripted competition from the return of SVU on ABC, two factors that likely also contributed to its week-to-week slide. It continues to rank in the top 5 on the Disney-owned streamer Hulu, though this week it's fallen behind both 9-1-1 and Grey's Anatomy, two shows it was ahead of in the first few days after its pilot was added to the service, hinting declining interest there as well. The show is still on track for a renewal, with ratings that are still respectable (of this season's four returning dramas, two averaged lower last season than Doctor Odyssey has averaged thus far). The coming weeks will be important, though - if it continues to drop precipitously, even Ryan Murphy may not be enough to save it, especially with a new 9-1-1 already in the works and likely to take its time slot. It remains a LIKELY RENEWAL for now.
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!
