CBS Renew/Cancel Week 1: Georgie & Mandy’s First Ratings + Introducing The Interactive Prediction Schedule

The Ratings Junkie

At long last, CBS Renew/Cancel makes its return. This season, the table of predictions will look a bit different, formatted like a schedule. This gives a visual of not just what shows are predicted to be in danger of cancelation, but what the impact on the schedule as a whole would be. Each show’s average Live + Same Day Adults 18-49 rating will be listed in the table, but the analysis will also include multi-platform ratings when made available.

This season’s column also introduces an interactive schedule where you can create your own predictions, which we encourage you to share in the comments and even outside of The TV Ratings Guide should you wish. More details on this to follow at the bottom of this article, but first, here are our predictions followed by an analysis:

NCIS

It’s hard to make any conclusions about how NCIS will perform this season yet, given it premiered at 8 pm. Its 0.43 demo rating was on par with last season’s average, and it will likely see lower numbers once it settles into its usual 9 pm time slot. CBS does have a history of canceling solidly-rated NCIS series in the name of expenses, and NCIS can’t be cheap now starting its 22nd season. However, NCIS is higher-rated than its spinoffs and more valuable in syndication and streaming, making it hard to believe it would get canceled without the advanced notice that shows like Blue Bloods received. It starts off the season in the Likely Renew category.

NCIS: Origins

NCIS: Origins is picking up where NCIS: Hawai’i left off: with passable, yet unremarkable ratings. I don’t want to be too bullish on it in case it takes steep drops in subsequent airings. So far, though, it’s doing its job of maintaining the time slot’s ratings at a reduced cost. One worrying sign is its apparent lackluster performance on Paramount+; it premiered at #4, but fell out of the Top 10 the next day, yet to return. It starts out in the Leans Renew category. It’s not a flattering prediction by itself, but still better than everything else airing at 10 pm.

FBI

FBI just entered the first of a three-season renewal, making it safe through at least the 2026-27 TV season. Its ratings are still important to watch, as the ratings of its two spinoffs that close off Tuesday nights are largely dependent on it. If the premiere ratings are any indication, chances are FBI will outlive one or both of these spinoffs.

FBI: International

FBI: International had 56 episodes under its belt at the end of its third season, and will have somewhere in the mid-high 70s range at the end of this season. That’s very close to the magic 88 episode number commonly needed for a syndication deal, but will still likely need one more season to be attractive to potential buyers. Being realistic, CBS probably can’t count on a new show performing better in the post-FBI time slot than an FBI spinoff, as uninspiring of a choice the latter option may seem. Now that FBI: International is getting close to being an attractive syndication sell, I think it has a solid chance at renewal. It starts out as Leans Renew, as ultimately the Live + Same Day ratings are sub-par with no indication that streaming makes up for it. Plus, NBCUniversal owns the series domestically, meaning CBS would not benefit directly from a potential syndication deal. Since NBCUniversal would, they would be inclined to offer an additional season to CBS for a reduced licensing fee.

FBI: Most Wanted

The future is less clear for FBI: Most Wanted, which once again finds itself predicted in Cancel territory. FBI: Most Wanted now has more than enough episodes for a syndication deal — it had 86 last season, which I figured was close enough — and also went through a round of budget cuts over the summer. Combine that with the surprisingly low linear ratings and streaming performance for its season premiere, FBI: Most Wanted is at risk of cancelation. It starts off in the Leans Cancel column, with prospects that could improve should its ratings recover.

Survivor

Survivor has taken a noticeable drop in the linear ratings this season, but there’s still no reason to believe it’s in any danger. It’s doing better than The Masked Singer and The Golden Bachelorette combined, and is CBS’s highest-rated series in Adults 18-49 Live + Same Day. It starts out as Certain Renew, where it will stay barring some unforeseen extraneous factor.

The Summit

At the opposite end of Survivor’s Certain Renew prediction comes lead-out The Summit, a new competition reality series. CBS was trying to find their next big reality hit in the post-Survivor time slot, but The Summit is clearly not that hit. CBS is already scheduling reruns on Saturdays, presumably to be used for make goods — in other words, advertisers aren’t getting what they were promised. They have little choice but to air out the remainder of the series, but with more series on the bench it would likely be at risk of being pulled. It starts off in the Certain Cancel category.

Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage

Now airing in Young Sheldon’s old time slot is spinoff Georgie & Mandy’s first marriage, a multi-cam spinoff — and a spinoff of a spinoff of The Big Bang Theory. The curiosity factor was at least there for Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage; future airings will indicate how it will hold up. It starts out as a Likely Renew, although its future on the schedule is a little unclear. Should CBS order to series single-cam workplace sitcom DMV, from the director of Ghosts, or single-cam vampire-themed sitcom Eternally Yours, from the creators of Ghosts, they would likely want to pair them up with Ghosts. Meanwhile, Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage is a multi-cam owned by Warner Bros. Discovery and, while it is a natural fit for the Thursdays at 8 time slot occupied by The Big Bang Theory and Young Sheldon, it thematically does not fit in with the rest of the night. It’s a near certainly at least one sitcom will not make it out of this season alive, but Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage is off to a strong start on linear. It is showing some potential signs of trouble on streaming, though, debuting at #5 on Paramount+’s trending list the day after airing and proceeding to fall out of the Top 10 the next day.

Ghosts

Ghosts got significantly more expensive this season, with substantial pay hikes across the board for the cast. This comes even as budgets are being cut for many broadcast TV shows — even the higher-rated ones. It is a co-production with Lionsgate, who is known for being good at securing renewals for their series. A Season 5 renewal is simply a formality for Ghosts, and it starts in the Certain Renew category.

Matlock

CBS was in love with Matlock when they first ordered it, going as far as penciling it into the Sundays at 8 pm time slot. Then the strikes hit, and Matlock’s series premiere was delayed to the 2024-25 TV season. With CBS now trying to squeeze every last ad dollar out of the Disney-owned hit Tracker, Matlock has been sent to Thursdays at 9 pm, in fellow legal drama So Help Me Todd’s old time slot. So far, Matlock is a slight improvement on So Help Me Todd in the Adults 18-49 demo Live + Same Day, something difficult to achieve as ratings decline pretty much across the board every season. There’s also a fair amount of discussion and critical acclaim surrounding the show, which is an anecdotal factor but can’t hurt. Plus, Matlock is one of CBS’s most-viewed shows on linear and the series premiere reportedly broke over 10.6 million viewers in 3-day multi-platform viewing. While typically demo ratings are seen as more important than total viewership, Matlock may be a bit different. If CBS expected this to be a young-skewing show after what happened with 2011’s infamous Harry’s Law, I don’t know what to say. Matlock starts in the Likely Renew category.

Elsbeth

Of all the shows currently on CBS’s schedule, Elsbeth is arguably the toughest call. If Elsbeth is canceled, and I’m also correct about the fates of The Summit and FBI: Most Wanted, an Elsbeth cancelation would mean that of all 10 pm fall series, only NCIS: Origins would be renewed. I find it hard to believe CBS would clean slate in the hour like that, and Elsbeth does have factors in its favor, ranging from critical acclaim to presumably relatively low costs. Plus, if it’s anything like The Good Wife, it likely has an upscale audience that allows CBS to charge a premium on ads. On the other hand, the linear ratings are simply not cutting it on a network as relatively strong as CBS, and its streaming presence is lacking too — #8 on Paramount+ the day after premiering, and falling out of the Top 10 the next day. Elsbeth’s fate could be tied to how Watson performs in the spring, as well as how confident the network feels in their drama development. For now, I’ll give it the benefit of the doubt and say it Tilts Renew.

Tracker

Like Ghosts, a renewal for Tracker is all but guaranteed. Tracker is an example that it’s still possible for a network to have success with a show not owned by the parent company. At this point, one would have to wonder if Disney wished it aired on ABC. It starts off in the Certain Renew category.

Looking Ahead

Without any ratings reported for The Equalizer along with the Friday lineup and Monday sitcoms, an analysis would be little more than a rehash of the pre-season predictions. I’m a little surprised The Neighborhood wasn’t announced as a final season over the summer — perhaps they are waiting to see how Poppa’s House pans out to make a definite decision. One thing’s for certain is that Fire Country is getting renewed. With a spinoff on the way and at least one more in early development, there’s no reason to believe this show is going anywhere.

Interactive Schedule

To make your own predictions, you can use the interactive schedule any time below. Click on the prediction you would like to make, then tap on the show. For example, if you agree with me that Ghosts is a Certain Renewal, tap on the green ‘Certain’, then tap on Ghosts and it will fill in the time slot accordingly. If you would like to share, you can do this by selecting ‘Save Screenshot’ and ‘Download’. Then drag and drop the image to the comments, or save it to your device and upload it to the comments.

The TV Ratings Guide	8:00	8:30	9:00	9:30	10:00
Mon	The Neighborhood	Poppa’s House	NCIS		NCIS: Origins
Tues	FBI		FBI: International		FBI: Most Wanted
Wed	Survivor			The Summit
Thurs	Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage	Ghosts	Matlock		Elsbeth
Fri	S.W.A.T.		Fire Country		Blue Bloods
Sun	Tracker		The Equalizer		Encores