On a special Thursday edition of the Summer Renew/Cancel, I analyze this week's two new premieres: new NBC reality series Survival Mode and returning ABC veteran Bachelor in Paradise. Keep reading for my initial predictions for both of them.
Certain to be Canceled:
The Great North (Fox) (0.13, 0.11-0.16)
Raid the Cage (CBS) (0.18, 0.16-0.22)
Likely to be Canceled:
The Snake (Fox) (0.13, 0.12-0.14)
Survival Mode (NBC) (0.16)
Yes, Chef! (NBC) (0.14, 0.11-0.19)
Leans Cancellation:
Destination X (NBC) (0.23, 0.17-0.30)
Leans Renewal:
N/A
Likely to be Renewed:
The 1% Club (Fox) (0.21, 0.20-0.21)
Bachelor in Paradise (ABC) (0.31)
Gordon Ramsay's Secret Service (Fox) (0.21, 0.19-0.23)
The Quiz with Balls (Fox) (0.19, 0.17-0.21)
Certain to be Renewed:
American Ninja Warrior (NBC) (0.31, 0.28-0.38)
America's Got Talent (NBC) (0.39, 0.31-0.48)
MasterChef (Fox) (0.23, 0.17-0.28)
Fate Determined:
Bob's Burgers (Fox) (Renewed)
Bob's Burgers (Fox) (Renewed)
Family Guy (Fox) (Renewed)
Grimsburg (Fox) (Renewed)
LEGO Masters (Fox) (Renewed)
Coming Soon:
Coming Soon:
Big Brother (CBS)
Celebrity Family Feud (ABC)
The Fixer (Fox)
Match Game (ABC)
Press Your Luck (ABC)
Who Wants to Be a Millionaire (ABC)
Survival Mode: NBC's third and final new series of the summer debuted this week, and few seemed to notice. There was minimal press for the show leading into its premiere, and until just a few weeks before its premiere, there didn't even seem to be any official confirmation that it was, in fact, airing this summer. It seems like an afterthought, to plug a hole on one of the few nights in summer that NBC actually cares about programming. Monday at 10 has been a rough time slot all season for NBC. Brilliant Minds and The Hunting Party both somehow got renewed, but both performed terribly. Yes, Chef! was a stunning failure. So it makes sense that a cheat unscripted show with almost no promotion is just continuing that cycle of failure. Its 0.16 premiere rating is the second-worst premiere rating for any NBC show this season (Yes, Chef! managed worse), though it's not really any worse than I expected, given the mediocre ratings American Ninja Warrior has posted so far this season, the lack of awareness for it, and the low standards already set by its time slot predecessor. With Ninja Warrior posting a 0.25, its 0.16 translates to 64% retention. And in that regard, it is an improvement on Yes, Chef. Is that an accomplishment? I wouldn't say so. But it is enough for me to give it a small bit of grace. NBC has made it clear it's not a priority at all, and its ratings are low, but it's performing about as well as one would expect it to, so it begins as "only" a LIKELY CANCELLATION.
Bachelor in Paradise: The Bachelor franchise has been in a state of turmoil in recent years. After a weak fall season in 2023, Bachelor in Paradise was paused indefinitely before being renewed for a summer 2025 season. It, in turn, replaced The Bachelorette, which had its own ratings woes and is now paused for the time being. The Bachelor was even left in limbo for a few months longer than ABC's other renewed reality shows before they renewed it with a new showrunner at the helm, following controversy about its production team. So these longtime staples are no longer the slam-dunk renewal predictions they once were, even though, in the end, they mostly end up getting renewals that are merely delayed. After its year off, Bachelor in Paradise premiered to a solid 0.31 in the demo. That's 100% in-line with its finale from 2023, which was a series low at the time. Obviously, it was two years ago, and 0.31 looks pretty good for a summer series in 2025, but that's a rating that got it shelved in 2023, and that's just where it's premiering this time. Its half-hours were pretty concerning, starting at a 0.44 and shedding two full tenths by 10:30, down to a 0.24. The Bachelor shows often have shaky halves that don't always point to long-term ratings problems, and 10 PM has long been a troublesome hour for these Bachelor shows, so I'm not panicking. However, this year is a bit different, as the show has a production overhaul, with a new editing style, a new filming location, and even a different tone, which may have put off some fans of the typically campy Paradise. I think it's going to be just fine, and with The Bachelorette off the air, it'll probably be one of ABC's highest-rated summer shows. But given how ABC has tinkered with the scheduling of these reality shows, and the inconsistent ratings for its premiere, it starts as just a LIKELY RENEWAL. It's quite possible it begins to air every other year, trading off with The Bachelorette, so we might not get a renewal confirmation for some time, but I expect it will come eventually.
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!
