It's been an odd end to the season on ABC. For months, Doctor Odyssey was their only show with its fate still up in the air, and for months, they refused to announce the fate of that single show. Though they still haven't been definitive about its fate, they've essentially admitted that the show is over, and that's good enough for me to be able to put a cap on this season and do one last look back at the season that was.
Certain Cancellation:
N/A
Likely Cancellation:
Doctor Odyssey (de facto canceled 6/27)
Leans Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Renewal:
The Rookie (Renewed 4/3)
Abbott Elementary (Renewed 1/21)
High Potential (Renewed 1/21)
Shifting Gears (Renewed 4/3)
Will Trent (Renewed 4/3)
Announced as Ending Before the Season Began:
The Conners
So let's start with the elephant in the room: Doctor Odyssey is canceled, but also, not really. For whatever reason, ABC refuses to outright use the word "canceled" here, instead suggesting that the show is "on pause" and that Ryan Murphy could choose to bring it back down the line if he so desires. I'm not sure why ABC would agree to that, the show flopped hard in the first place and a hiatus sure won't help, but that's what they claim. Now, I don't believe it, and I didn't believe it when they first implied that back in May. The show is canceled, it's not coming back, and I'm counting it as a cancellation, despite ABC dancing around the subject, seemingly to avoid any tension with Ryan Murphy. It's a very odd situation, because every network has canceled series from top creators and producers before. CBS just canceled two Dick Wolf series, and NBC's done the same in the past. ABC sometimes gave Shonda Rhimes shot renewals that weren't deserved, but when they were canceled, thy admitted it. So this is a pretty unusual situation, though not entirely unprecedented. Fox tried something similar with Accused, which is also canceled in all but name. Still, Doctor Odyssey has sunk. The cast options have expired, with ABC not choosing to extend them as they weigh its renewal, and for good reason: the show's not coming back. If ABC had any desire to bring it back, they'd have already renewed it and secured its cast. Instead, they let them expire, allowing the cast to move on to other projects. No network is going to risk the entire cast of a show they're renewing finding other employment while they drag their feet on announcing a pickup. It's not that ABC has no room for Doctor Odyssey. They've picked up one show for next season, and have several drama projects in development for midseason. It's not hard to see why ABC is moving on from Doctor Odyssey. After a solid start, the show faltered in a major way. Its 0.4 premiere quickly turned into a 0.2, less than a month after its debut, and it never really recovered from there in a meaningful way. What began as a likely renewal prediction was down to a cancellation prediction by late October, and a likely cancellation by season's end. Streaming viewing also seemed to drop as the season went on, and it was ABC's lowest-rated series in multiplatform viewing aside from The Conners. In the key demo, Grey's Anatomy (ABC's lowest-rated series in the top 100) ranked as #72 for the season overall, while Doctor Odyssey failed to make the top 100 at all. The show gave ABC little to be excited about, and its de facto cancellation is no surprise.
Every other show was decided a long time ago, and I've already briefly recapped those decisions, but let's just take a brief look back.
The Rookie was the most difficult prediction of the season outside of Doctor Odyssey. It started as a renewal underdog in this column, as I believed it would get axed pre-season, much like fellow seventh-season dramas Station 19 and The Good Doctor. As the season moved along, that looked less likely, but it took me awhile to fully come around to the idea of a renewal here. It eventually became clear that its streaming performance (it tied with 9-1-1 to be ABC's #3 series in the demo in multiplatform) was stronger than I gave it credit for, and with its linear ratings being OK enough, I eventually upped it to a renewal prediction. By the time the renewal was handed out, it wasn't much of a surprise at all. ABC has canceled veteran series without warning before (including Nathan Fillion's own Castle, and, most recently, sitcom The Goldbergs), but axing The Rookie so late in the season just felt unlikely. I'm really not sure how much longer this show is going to continue for, but making it to season eight at all has defied recent ABC history (it's the first ABC drama to make it there since Castle, not counting 9-1-1, which aired six of its eight seasons on another network), so that's not something I can rely on. The spinoff that I felt was a potential replacement for it does seem to be heating up, but as of now, this show is a big question mark.
The rest of ABC's series were all fairly obvious. Grey's Anatomy is obviously in decline, and has fallen enough in every metric to now be ABC's least-watched returning scripted series and their lowest-rated returning scripted series in the demo (The Conners had fewer viewers, and both Doctor Odyssey and The Conners were lower in the demo - neither are coming back next season). However, it always seemed like a guarantee to return, as such an important show was not about to be canceled unceremoniously, no matter how bad things got. International sales also continue to be a major asset, so I'm guessing it still gets renewed again, but the end is probably coming in the next few years. New comedy Shifting Gears looked worse as the season moved along, but did enough to remain a lock for renewal, while Will Trent grew enough this season to genuinely impress me, after a few seasons of finding its ratings merely acceptable. Abbott Elementary remains a multiplatform phenom, and its first-run ratings were impressive this season too, so that one was never in doubt. Nor was 9-1-1, which has certainly dropped a bit but remains ABC's highest-rated series. And perhaps the most obvious renewal of all was High Potential, which started in decent enough shape behind Dancing with the Stars before soaring to new heights at 9 PM, providing ABC with a new bona fide scripted hit.
In the end, it was a pretty predictable season for ABC, which lent itself to a perfect prediction record for me. With only eight shows to predict, and few of them looking even slightly questionable for renewal this season, it's not an achievement to get too excited about, but I'll take it!
ABC still has several decisions to make about new programs for next season, so I'm not sure when the pre-season predictions will be coming out, but it will be sometime this summer, so stay tuned for those sometime down the line!
