CBS Renew/Cancel Wrap-Up Part 1: Age Is Not Just A Number for a Show on CBS + Final Schedule Predictions

The Ratings Junkie

Below is Part 1 of 2 of the wrap-up of CBS Renew/Cancel for 2024-25 TV season. This edition takes a look back at the prediction record and a look ahead at possibilities for CBS’s fall 2025 schedule. Let us know what you think by voting in the poll and sounding off in the comments!

Prediction Record
Among the shows CBS aired this season, there were 19 correct predictions and 2 incorrect predictions. Note Blue Bloods and FBI’s decisions were made before the beginning of the 2024-25 TV season. Additionally, The Amazing Race was renewed ahead of its premiere, before it received a prediction. No decision has been announced yet on game show Raid The Cage, which still has unscheduled episodes in its second production cycle.

In the past, there were two main factors that would provide a pretty solid indicator into if a show would be renewed or canceled: if it does well enough in the Live + Same Day Adults 18-49 demo, and if another season would bring it to 88 episodes. Had these predictions been made solely off those two factors, we could be looking at up to 10 incorrect predictions this season. FBI: International and The Equalizer would be virtual locks for renewal, while NCIS: Origins, NCIS: Sydney, Elsbeth, and Watson would sit pretty comfortably in a cancelation prediction category. Poppa’s House and FBI: Most Wanted also had the ratings to be renewed, with Blue Bloods and SWAT on the bubble. Ratings are still a factor to some extent, with CBS’s top-rated shows getting renewed. However, CBS has shown to us this season that the automatic renewal when a show is close to 88 episodes is a thing of the past, and low-rated shows are fair game for renewal.

In reality, there were two incorrect predictions this season. FBI: International defied my prediction for the second season in a row, this time getting canceled despite a Leans Renew prediction. While down from the Certain Renew prediction it would have received a decade ago, the prediction still proved to be too optimistic. The other incorrect prediction was The Neighborhood, which was predicted in the pre-season column to get a final season announcement for the 2024-25 TV season. The Neighborhood did end up receiving a final season announcement, but it was for the 2025-26 TV season. While I had originally intended to upgrade it had that announcement not come by early 2025, the development of the Marty & Malcolm-led spinoff combined with the relatively late decision led me to believe CBS had the intention to replace The Neighborhood with it. Said spinoff wound up rejected before the backdoor pilot even aired.

Despite relatively low ratings in the Adults 18-49 Live + Same Day demo, Watson, NCIS: Origins, NCIS: Sydney, and Elsbeth were all correctly predicted to be renewed. All four series are either in their first or second seasons, and all currently have less than 30 episodes to their names. They are produced by CBS Studios and as such, fully owned by Paramount. In a year where CBS prioritized young and fully owned shows over older shows they don’t own, all four shows were able to score renewals. It helps Elsbeth’s case that it does well in multi-platform viewing, and NCIS: Origins’ that CBS had to prove the cancelation of previous time slot occupant NCIS: Hawai’i was warranted.

Meanwhile, several shows were canceled despite passable ratings: Poppa’s House, FBI: International, FBI: Most Wanted, Blue Bloods, and S.W.A.T. The fully owned Poppa’s House had a clear argument for renewal when looking at CBS’s ratings as a whole, but would have needed a comedy expansion to get renewed in practice. Also fully-owned-but-canceled was Blue Bloods, an announcement made over 17 months ago now. The IP is still clearly very important to CBS, who will be premiering spinoff Boston Blue in the fall. Middle-of-the-road ratings weren’t enough to save FBI: International, FBI: Most Wanted, or S.W.A.T. either, which are all owned by outside studios and have aired anywhere from four to eight seasons.

Despite the renewals of a few low-rated shows and cancelations of a few average-rated shows, there were still several shows whose renewal and cancelation decisions aligned with their Live + Same Day Adults 18-49 ratings. These are the renewals of Tracker, Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage, Ghosts, FBI, The Neighborhood, Matlock, NCIS, Fire Country, Survivor, and The Amazing Race, and the cancelations of The Summit and The Equalizer. The latter comes after an ungraceful midseason move to Sundays at 10 pm, further cementing the time slot’s legacy as the Sunday night death slot.

Ratings are still a factor in renewals and cancelations, but age and ownership were much larger factors for CBS this season. Of the nine scripted shows in their first, second, or third season, all but one were renewed. Of the nine scripted shows in their fourth season or beyond, three were renewed with no strings attached, one was renewed for a final season, and five were canceled.

Schedulogy

CBS is set to announce their fall 2025 schedule on Wednesday, May 7. With that comes this season’s final edition of CBS Schedulogy. The below schedule is a prediction of CBS’s fall schedule, with new shows in bold and shows changing time slots in italics.

Though Einstein was originally ordered to series for the 2025-26 TV season, it was mysteriously pushed back to 2026-27 this past week. It is not yet clear what will be on the schedule instead of Einstein, with The Equalizer canceled and no other new show announced in its place. The currently-untitled and unordered Yellowstone spinoff is a possibility, and could very well be announced alongside the schedule. If not, we might be looking at two cycles of The Road.

Pay close attention to any time slot changes on the fall 2025 schedule. The Equalizer and S.W.A.T. both got canceled after midseason moves to 10 pm, so it’s plausible something that gets moved to a tougher time slot could be on the chopping block at the end of the 2025-26 season.