After an extended hiatus, the Cable Renew/Cancel is back, with a new slate of shows to discuss, including a veteran Syfy series, an acclaimed HBO period drama, and a new FX sitcom. Keep reading for initial predictions for many series airing across cable.
Resident Alien: This show has had an interesting few years. After its third season, its fate remained up in the air for several months, amid reports that Syfy was planning to scrap the series due to a higher budget than was feasible for them. Syfy has moved more toward cheap co-productions in recent years, with ratings for the network being so low that it's hard to afford (and justify) the full cost of producing series. There were said to be talks ongoing with USA Network to save the series, and those went well enough, as it was renewed two months after its final, moving to USA Network. Then, plans changed slightly, as it was announced the show would continue to be broadcast on Syfy despite airing on USA as well (a scheduling plan that had been implemented several other times in its run, mostly for premieres). So now, it's a series shared between two cable networks under the same network umbrella, but it is at least still alive! The only question is: how much longer can it stay alive? The show's scheduling is pretty unusual: airing at 11 PM on a Friday night is a pretty terrible slot, but it's also a slot that gives it USA's #1 series (WWE SmackDown) as its direct lead-in. Of course, that does make you wonder what expectations USA had for the show with such a solid lead-in. Retention has been awful, no doubt. The June 13 episode is the most recent episode we have ratings for, and that week, Resident Alien held just 18% of its lead-in. It was even worse the week before, with 17% retention (Resident Alien was steady from week to week, but SmackDown rose, making Alien look a bit worse). Expecting wrestling fans to not just tune into a show in its fourth season, but also stay up until midnight to do so likely always made this scheduling a bit ill-advised, but I do think it was done with good intentions for the show. Its Syfy ratings are lower than ever, of course, at 0.02 and 0.01 for the two weeks with ratings available, though that's pretty much how everything is rating on there these days. Peacock viewing is an important factor here, though, and it seems to be doing well on there, making it on their chart at least half the time it's been available to stream on there (only two episodes are available thus far, as they are added a week after linear broadcasts on Fridays). This is a really tough call, because the scheduling hasn't done it any favors, but it probably was intended to, and ratings are pretty bad on linear, but seem okay on Peacock, where we don't get any concrete data. The fact that it was in such jeopardy last season points towards this being it for the show, but it did well enough for them to bother with a network move at all, so they clearly saw some value in it. Though I'm conflicted, my gut is telling me it's slightly more likely to be canceled than renewed, so it LEANS CANCELLATION.
The Gilded Age: Its ratings on linear HBO are poor, but The Gilded Age is worth more to HBO than just how it rates on the network the night it airs. Its greatest value, like all other HBO series, is its draw to (HBO) Max, and it's been #1 on their TV streaming chart since its third season began. Per HBO's recent press release, the show drew 2.7 million viewers for its third season premiere in the first three days after its release, an increase of over 20% from its season two debut. Year-over-year growth is a good sign, and the show also has awards in its favor, with several Emmy nominations for its second season and a continued positive critical reception this season. While awards nominations don't always save shows, HBO tends to place a fairly high value on awards, and here, it's just one of many factors working in the show's favor. These linear ratings are also far from an anomaly on HBO, with other hits like The Righteous Gemstones drawing similar ratings and still managing to rate as a top 100 series for HBO in the key demo thanks to streaming viewing. For that reason, I have little doubt that The Gilded Age will return next season. It's a LIKELY RENEWAL.
Adults: Ratings for FX's newest comedy could probably be best described as "faint." We only got ratings for six of the eight episodes in the series, and they never weren't higher than its 0.04 premiere. It dropped as low as 0.01 on two occasions. While the premiere rating was inexcusably low, the poor ratings later on weren't at all surprising: the day after its linear premiere, all eight episodes were added to Hulu, where the majority of its viewers were likely to tune in regardless. It didn't spend that long on the Hulu chart, but it did no worse than most other binge releases (Hulu's chart is based off of only the most-streamed episode of the series, and not on the cumulative viewing of all episodes, as with other streamers' charts, so binge drops tend to peak early on their chart and drop pretty quickly). FX hasn't released any sort of viewership data from Hulu, so I'm sort of in the dark with my prediction here, but it did seem to do decently enough, peaking at least as high as a lot of of FX's weekly series (including fellow comedy What We Do In the Shadows). Also working in the show's favor is its lack of any big-name stars or elaborate sets, likely making it cost-effective to produce. Fellow comedy English Teacher didn't rate much better than it (its series high was 0.06, but it was hitting 0.02s and 0.03s just like Adults by the end of its run) on FX, and that show didn't have a Hulu binge release. It was renewed, though, so Adults could likely get by with these ratings, too. A cancellation wouldn't be a huge surprise, but I think a renewal is a bit more likely, so it LEANS RENEWAL.
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!
