NBC Renew/Cancel Week 4: We Need to Talk About Law & Order: SVU

This week on the NBC Renew/Cancel, the Peacock Network's ratings continue to tumble, and I take a look at the deteriorating ratings of a show that has long looked invincible. Plus, an update on a sophomore show that has struggled to find its footing.

Certain Cancellation:
N/A

Likely Cancellation:

Brilliant Minds (0.15, 0.12-0.17)

Leans Cancellation:
On Brand with Jimmy Fallon (0.18, 0.15-0.22)

Leans Renewal:
Law & Order (0.21, 0.20-0.23)

Likely Renewal:
Law & Order: SVU (0.25, 0.21-0.28)
The Voice (0.35, 0.31-0.42)

Certain Renewal:
Chicago Fire (0.34, 0.29-0.39)
Chicago Med (0.32, 0.28-0.36)
Chicago PD (0.30, 0.25-0.34)
Dateline NBC (0.18, 0.15-0.20)
Saturday Night Live (0.63, 0.58-0.68)

Coming Soon:
The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins
Happy's Place
The Hunting Party
St. Denis Medical
Stumble
Surviving Earth

Law & Order: SVU: For the first time in a very long time, Law & Order: SVU feels mortal. Last week, for the second week in a row, SVU toppled to a series low, after already premiering just a single hundredth above its previous series low. I thought a 0.28 premiere was bad for SVU, but things have just gotten worse from then. It's now averaging just 0.25 in the keys demo, down a third from the comparative episodes of last season. It's now a below-average performer for the first time since it aired at 10 PM in the 2019 season. This is all before Matlock — a show that SVU consistently declined when airing against last season —premieres. The first two weeks of the season saw zero scripted competition, while last week's fall happened against the series premiere of 9-1-1: Nashville. We'll see how SVU holds up against Matlock this week - given that it's already dropped so low, I could envision it not being hurt that much by the competition from Matlock. However, even if it stays in this 0.2 territory, that's low enough to be asking: what happened here? SVU did not move time slots, didn't really face any new competition in its time slot, and hasn't experienced major casting shakeups (of the two series regulars not returning this season, one had just joined the show last season, and the other appeared in the first three episodes of this season). Its sudden drop, when it had been capable of hitting 0.4s as recently as the end of last season, is concerning. While it was down last season as well, it at least remained one of the highest-rated NBC shows. Now, it's falling to levels that the rest of NBC's sad scripted lineup is hitting. The most recent Brilliant Minds rated only a few hundredths below SVU (0.17 vs 0.21), and even Law & Order, which I already criticized this season for its poor ratings, is barely any lower than SVU (hitting a 0.20 last week, a single hundredth below SVU). That a long-running and very successful show like SVU is in the same territory as these shows is a damning indictment of how far, and how fast, it's fallen. This is not to say that I think SVU is getting canceled this season. Despite the overwhelming disappointment of these ratings, it's still a major money-maker for NBC. It does well on Peacock, and was one of the few NBC shows last season to perform well enough on streaming to crack the top 100 shows in multiplatform for the season, making both the charts for both the 18-49 demo and total viewers. NBC put out a press release bragging about its streaming performance again this season, claiming it drew 7.6 million viewers in its premiere week. If that's true, then it's at least managing to hold up well on streaming despite its losses on NBC. It's also a major player in syndication, enjoying one of the most lucrative syndication deals of any current broadcast show. That'll be enough to keep it going for now, and certainly enough to keep it from being outright canceled without some sort of extended final season announcement, which this show has earned. However, it is starting to feel like SVU might be reaching its end. Its 30th season is just a few years away. If it continues to struggle like this and rate below the league average, that might be a good time to wrap the show up on its own terms. No show lasts forever, and this one is starting to quickly show its age. While NBC is surely not pleased with how it's performed on linear this season, it's incredibly unlikely that this will be enough to end the show, and it remains a LIKELY RENEWAL, even if there are glaring warning signs for the show's future.

Brilliant Minds: This was never a brilliant renewal, but NBC keeps looking dumber for having made it as time ticks on. Last week, Brilliant Minds sunk to a new low of 0.12 behind a 0.31 lead-in from The Voice. That's its worst retention of the season, and one of the lowest ratings we've seen for any NBC show (something I've written many times in the last two seasons, as NBC continues its downward spiral). This week was a nice boost for the show, rising to a 0.17, which is its best performance of the season. One thing remains apparent though: even on a weakened NBC, this is the weakest link. Brilliant Minds is a ratings bust, and even NBC seems over it. In a press release last week, they bragged about the ratings of every show from the season, except for Brilliant Minds. Even On Brand, which premiered weeks after Brilliant Minds and had less data for them to highlight, was included in that PR puff piece, as was summer show America's Got Talent. Brilliant Minds being left out feels very damning, and indicative of how little NBC thinks of it. It always felt like a renewal made out of desperation, rather than actually wanting to renew it. It came four months after its finale, and NBC seemingly picked it over the other shows because it bombed slightly less than the other shows. As one would expect, the long break did it no favors, and it returned looking just as weak as The Irrational, Grosse Pointe Garden Society, and the other canceled shows. A second renewal would pretty much take a miracle. This week's improvement in the ratings isn't nearly enough to get an upgrade, and it remains a LIKELY CANCELLATION. It avoids a downgrade to certain cancellation territory simply because it was able to defy the odds once before, and I don't want to count it entirely out this soon. However, its performance would warrant such a harsh prediction.

Interactive Schedule:

The TV Ratings Guide	8:00	9:00	10:00
Mon	The Voice		Brilliant Minds
Tues	The Voice		On Brand with Jimmy Fallon
Wed	Chicago Med	Chicago Fire	Chicago PD
Thurs	Law & Order	Law & Order: SVU	Law & Order: Organized Crime
Fri	On Brand with Jimmy Fallon	Dateline NBC
Sat	College Football on NBC
Sun	Sunday Night Football