NBC Renew/Cancel Watch: Final Predictions (UPDATED)

Tomorrow will mark the start of a very interesting week of renewals and cancellations, so here are my final predictions for the fates of the remaining NBC shows. This post will be updated as the renewals and cancellations come in.

*UPDATED 5/13 - CANCELLATIONS & NEW SHOWS ADDED
*UPDATED 5/15 - RENEWALS & NEW SHOWS ADDED


KEY

• Show title (Percent chance of renewal)

CANCELED

• Heroes Reborn
• The Player
• Truth Be Told
• You, Me and the Apocalypse

CANCELLATION PREDICTED

• Heartbeat (0%) CANCELED
• Game of Silence (1%) CANCELED
• Undateable (15%) CANCELED
• Telenovela (20%) CANCELED
• Crowded (35%) CANCELED

RENEWAL PREDICTED

• The Mysteries of Laura (51%) CANCELED
• The Carmichael Show (85%) RENEWED

RENEWED

• The Blacklist
• Blindspot
• Chicago Fire
• Chicago Med
• Chicago P.D.
• Grimm
• Law & Order: SVU
• Shades of Blue
• Superstore

NEXT SEASON'S NEW SHOWS

- Drama

• The Blacklist: Redemption
• Chicago Justice
• Emerald City
• Midnight Texas
• Patient Zero
• Taken
• This Is Us (Fall - Tuesdays 9/8c)
• Timeless (Fall - Mondays 10/9c)

- Comedy

• The Good Place (Fall - Thursdays 8:30/7:30c)
• Great News
• Marlon
• Powerless
• Trial & Error

NBC Renew/Cancel Watch: 'Crowded' Certain to be Canceled

Week 28

KEY

• Show title (Average adults 18-49 rating to the nearest tenth / Most recent rating)

[F] - Indicates a Friday-night show, which will typically have lower ratings
[O] - Indicates an NBC-owned show, which will typically have a higher chance at renewal

CANCELED

• Heroes Reborn (1.3 / 1.0) [O]
• The Player (0.8 / 0.8)
• Truth Be Told (0.6 / 0.4) [F][O]
• You, Me and the Apocalypse (0.7 / 0.6)

CERTAIN TO BE CANCELED

• Crowded (1.3 / 0.8) [O]
• Heartbeat (1.1 / 0.9)
• Telenovela (1.0 / 0.9) [O]
• Undateable (0.8 / 0.8) [F]

LIKELY TO BE CANCELED

• The Mysteries of Laura (1.1 / 1.2)

ON THE BUBBLE

• None

LIKELY TO BE RENEWED

• The Carmichael Show (1.2 / 1.0)
• Grimm (0.9 / 0.9) [F][O]

CERTAIN TO BE RENEWED

• None

RENEWED

• The Blacklist (1.5 / 1.3)
• Blindspot (2.1 / 1.6)
• Chicago Fire (1.8 / 1.7) [O]
• Chicago Med (1.8 / 1.8) [O]
• Chicago P.D. (1.6 / 1.5) [O]
• Law & Order: SVU (1.7 / 1.4) [O]
• Shades of Blue (1.2 / 1.1) [O]
• Superstore (1.5 / 1.4) [O]

ANALYSIS

Crowded finally went fractional this week. With that being said, I have decided to move it down to "certain to be canceled," for it will most likely only go even more downhill from here. The reason Crowded skipped the "likely cancellation" phase is because, in a recently released interview with Campaign U.S. (link here), an NBC network president revealed that they will be ordering and trying out a wide variety of comedies next season. Therefore, there just won't be any room for Crowded (no pun intended) and its fractional ratings.

I have also quietly moved Telenovela and Undateable down to "certain to be canceled" because of the new information revealed in the Campaign U.S. interview.

Coming up next week: Undateable vs. Telenovela. If only one could get a renewal, which would it be? Find out my thoughts and more next Sunday!

POLL OF THE WEEK

NBC Renew/Cancel Watch: 'Heartbeat' Certain to be Canceled

Week 27

KEY

• Show title (Average adults 18-49 rating to the nearest tenth / Most recent rating)

[F] - Indicates a Friday-night show, which will typically have lower ratings
[O] - Indicates an NBC-owned show, which will typically have a higher chance at renewal

CANCELED

• Heroes Reborn (1.3 / 1.0) [O]
• The Player (0.8 / 0.8)
• Truth Be Told (0.6 / 0.4) [F][O]
• You, Me and the Apocalypse (0.7 / 0.6)

CERTAIN TO BE CANCELED

• Heartbeat (1.2 / 0.9)

LIKELY TO BE CANCELED

• The Mysteries of Laura (1.1 / 1.2)
• Telenovela (1.0 / 0.9) [O]
• Undateable (0.8 / 0.8) [F]

ON THE BUBBLE

• Crowded (1.4 / 1.0) [O]

LIKELY TO BE RENEWED

• The Carmichael Show (1.2 / 1.3)
• Grimm (0.9 / 0.9) [F][O]

CERTAIN TO BE RENEWED

• None

RENEWED

• The Blacklist (1.5 / 1.3)
• Blindspot (2.1 / 1.5)
• Chicago Fire (1.8 / 1.6) [O]
• Chicago Med (1.8 / 1.5) [O]
• Chicago P.D. (1.6 / 1.4) [O]
• Law & Order: SVU (1.7 / 1.5) [O]
• Shades of Blue (1.2 / 1.0) [O]
• Superstore (1.5 / 1.4) [O]

ANALYSIS

Heartbeat premiered to a modest 1.4 rating following The Voice on Tuesday, but dropped to a not-so-modest 0.9 on Wednesday. Because Heartbeat already went fractional in its second episode, I have decided to skip the "bubble" stage and immediately label it as "certain to be canceled." Does NBC now wish it gave The Mysteries of Laura a full-season order? Probably. Does The Mysteries of Laura now have a shot at renewal? Not so fast...but maybe. It isn't "certain to be canceled," just "likely"...

Also, you may have noticed that I moved The Carmichael Show up to "likely to be renewed." After two weeks of performing decently behind Little Big Shots, I thought this move was only fair. Even though it's not saying much, TCS is NBC's #2 comedy. With that AND critical acclaim, I think it's safe to say that TCS definitely has more than a 50% shot at renewal.

POLL OF THE WEEK