Predictions for 8/3/17
It's time for the first NBC Renew/Cancel post of the season. I'll be taking over this feature for the upcoming season. While the fall season hasn't started yet, NBC has already made some decisions. Also, I'll be making some preseason predictions for the veteran programs that will be returning in the fall.
Will & Grace - The classic sitcom hasn't even returned yet, but it's
already been renewed for a 10th season. It's probably not a great idea considering not all revivals have been rating hits, but it's good to have it out of the way.
This Is Us - The drama has already been renewed for a third season, but unlike 'Will & Grace', this one deserves it.
The Dick Wolf Shows (Law & Order: SVU, Chicago PD, Chicago Fire) - All three shows are strong performers for the network and should have no problem returning. Unless they suddenly collapse in the ratings, they will stay in the 'certain renewal' column.
Superstore - The workplace comedy will be entering its third season and currently has 33 episodes. With two more 22-episode seasons, the series will have a decent amount of episodes for a syndication package. Even without that, 'Superstore' is a solid performer in the ratings. The second season averaged a 1.1 in the Adults 18-49 demographic. That made it the second-highest rated comedy on NBC. Like the Dick Wolf shows, I'll be keeping it in this category unless it pulls some alarmingly low numbers.
The Good Place - 'The Good Place' was NBC's highest-rated comedy last year, so why is it not a certain renewal? It's because high-concept serialized comedies tend to fall a lot in their second seasons. Fox's 'The Last Man on Earth' fell nearly 30% in its sophomore season while ABC's 'Galavant fell over 50%. But, that doesn't really mean that 'The Good Place' is in any danger. NBC is giving it an 'America's Got Talent' lead-in for the premiere and it never fell below a 1.0 in the ratings last year. It's still likely to return, but I'm being a bit cautious with this one.
Great News - This comedy was a flop. Period. Its ratings did not warrant a renewal, but it managed to come back anyway. This time, 'Great News' is getting a likely strong lead-in from 'Will & Grace'. I'm not sure that 'Will & Grace' will be big enough to boost the sophomore comedy or if 'Great News' will be compatible with it. This is why I'm keeping it in the "toss-up" category. The fact that it's getting a timeslot upgrade is keeping it from the 'cancellation' categories, but I'm still skeptical that it does well.
The Blacklist - The drama will be entering its fifth season. The previous one fell over 30% in the ratings after a timeslot downgrade. This time, the series is getting another timeslot change and will air at 8 pm instead of 10. Considering that the series has fallen around 30% each season, I'm not expecting it to do very well. Ratings were just barely passable last season, so with another brutal drop, they'll be in disaster territory. Still, it was very steady towards the end of last season, so I think it's possible that it takes that late-season steadiness to a new timeslot.
Blindspot - 'Blindspot' fell nearly 50% last year and will now be moving to Fridays. This means that the bar will be lower, but ratings will also likely fall lower. But, a move to Fridays isn't always a death blow. A move to Fridays helped ABC's 'Last Man Standing' and CBS's 'Hawaii Five-0' find new rating potential. I really don't know what to expect from this one, so it's a toss-up.
Poll of the Week
Which Returning NBC Comedy Are You Most Excited For?
