Hello everyone, this is Luke, and it's that time of year again! The 2016-17 television season is right around the corner, so that means it's time for some preliminary renew/cancel predictions. Take a look below!
KEY
[F] - Indicates a Friday night show, which will typically have lower acceptable ratings
[O] - Indicates an NBC-owned show, which will typically have a higher chance at renewal
CANCELED
- Grimm [F][O] *final season
NBC has announced a 6th and final season of Grimm, which will begin on January 6, 2017.
CERTAIN TO BE CANCELED
- Blindspot
- The Good Place [O]
Blindspot was one of the highest-rated new shows last season, but toward the end of its run it started to dramatically slump in the ratings. It is now making a move from Mondays at 10 to Wednesdays at 8. Surviving this move is very questionable, but I'm predicting a likely cancellation for Blindspot as of right now.
The Good Place will be getting off to a good start on September 19 at 10, following the season premiere of NBC's saving grace, The Voice. However, once it moves to its regular timeslot on Thursdays at 8:30, it will face an enormous uphill battle. I just don't think The Good Place has enough going for it to make it up that hill--but its likely strong premiere could help it out more than I think. For now, it's a likely cancellation.
COULD GO EITHER WAY
Many people are speculating that Timeless will premiere big, but I believe it will only have a mediocre premiere in the low 2s/high 1s. After that, I see it slumping down to the mid/low 1s for the rest of its run. The question is: will mid/low 1s be enough for renewal? It could go either way...
LIKELY TO BE RENEWED
- The Blacklist
- Superstore [O]
- This Is Us
The Blacklist has always been a steady/mediocre performer for NBC, and it is now in its 4th season, so I think we will at least see a 5th and final season after this current one if its ratings slump even more. It is also going to be airing in one of NBC's notorious death slots, Thursdays at 10, but I think it will improve the ratings from last year's The Player, Shades of Blue, and Game of Silence.
Superstore could have easily been labeled as "could go either way," but if NBC needs to renew at least one comedy at the end of this season, Superstore is going to be that comedy. I don't see any of the upcoming new NBC comedies outperforming Superstore, so I believe this workplace comedy is likely to be safe for next season.
This Is Us is quite possibly the most anticipated new show of the 2016-17 season, so I feel as if a big premiere is almost inevitable (hence the word "almost," see Scream Queens from last season). Even if This Is Us falls a lot from its big premiere, I feel as if its ratings will still be enough to make it to next season. It would have to fall DRASTICALLY in order to be canceled, and I don't think it will fall nearly that low.
CERTAIN TO BE RENEWED
- Chicago Fire [O]
- Chicago Med [O]
- Chicago P.D. [O]
- Law & Order: SVU [O]
Chicago Fire, Med, and P.D. have all become steady players for NBC and will certainly be getting a renewal. Law & Order: SVU will also certainly get a renewal, for it is nearly entering its 20th season and NBC isn't going to stop this show from achieving that huge milestone when it is this close. See you next season to all of Dick Wolf's shows.
