NBC Renew/Cancel: Preseason Predictions

Hello everyone, this is Luke, and it's that time of year again! The 2016-17 television season is right around the corner, so that means it's time for some preliminary renew/cancel predictions. Take a look below!

KEY

[F] - Indicates a Friday night show, which will typically have lower acceptable ratings

[O] - Indicates an NBC-owned show, which will typically have a higher chance at renewal

CANCELED

• Grimm [F][O] *final season

NBC has announced a 6th and final season of Grimm, which will begin on January 6, 2017.

CERTAIN TO BE CANCELED

• None

LIKELY TO BE CANCELED

• Blindspot
• The Good Place [O]

Blindspot was one of the highest-rated new shows last season, but toward the end of its run it started to dramatically slump in the ratings. It is now making a move from Mondays at 10 to Wednesdays at 8. Surviving this move is very questionable, but I'm predicting a likely cancellation for Blindspot as of right now.

The Good Place will be getting off to a good start on September 19 at 10, following the season premiere of NBC's saving grace, The Voice. However, once it moves to its regular timeslot on Thursdays at 8:30, it will face an enormous uphill battle. I just don't think The Good Place has enough going for it to make it up that hill--but its likely strong premiere could help it out more than I think. For now, it's a likely cancellation.

COULD GO EITHER WAY

• Timeless

Many people are speculating that Timeless will premiere big, but I believe it will only have a mediocre premiere in the low 2s/high 1s. After that, I see it slumping down to the mid/low 1s for the rest of its run. The question is: will mid/low 1s be enough for renewal? It could go either way...

LIKELY TO BE RENEWED

• The Blacklist
• Superstore [O]
• This Is Us

The Blacklist has always been a steady/mediocre performer for NBC, and it is now in its 4th season, so I think we will at least see a 5th and final season after this current one if its ratings slump even more. It is also going to be airing in one of NBC's notorious death slots, Thursdays at 10, but I think it will improve the ratings from last year's The Player, Shades of Blue, and Game of Silence.

Superstore could have easily been labeled as "could go either way," but if NBC needs to renew at least one comedy at the end of this season, Superstore is going to be that comedy. I don't see any of the upcoming new NBC comedies outperforming Superstore, so I believe this workplace comedy is likely to be safe for next season.

This Is Us is quite possibly the most anticipated new show of the 2016-17 season, so I feel as if a big premiere is almost inevitable (hence the word "almost," see Scream Queens from last season). Even if This Is Us falls a lot from its big premiere, I feel as if its ratings will still be enough to make it to next season. It would have to fall DRASTICALLY in order to be canceled, and I don't think it will fall nearly that low.

CERTAIN TO BE RENEWED

• Chicago Fire [O]
• Chicago Med [O]
• Chicago P.D. [O]
• Law & Order: SVU [O]

Chicago Fire, Med, and P.D. have all become steady players for NBC and will certainly be getting a renewal. Law & Order: SVU will also certainly get a renewal, for it is nearly entering its 20th season and NBC isn't going to stop this show from achieving that huge milestone when it is this close. See you next season to all of Dick Wolf's shows.

Five Questions: Fantasy Drama Edition

I'm bringing back what used to be Questions of the Week in a new format called Five Questions. Each segment, I will post five questions for us to discuss, all set to a certain theme. I will post my responses in the comments below, and I hope you do too!

1. Will there be any week where Once Upon a Time is lower-rated than both America's Funniest Home Videos AND Secrets & Lies?

2. Is this Grimm's final season, and if so will the finale break a 1.0?

3. Will Emerald City continue Grimm's legacy as a solid performer or will it flop?

4. Will Supernatural be the best time slot occupant on Thursdays for The CW in years by beating out Beauty & The Beast's 0.61 average from 2012-13? Does it have a chance to rise and beat out The Secret Circle's 0.77 from 2011-12?

5. Midnight, Texas is the second Charlaine Harris book series to be adapted for TV, the first being True Blood. True Blood had a 2.1 A18-49 rating for its finale on HBO; will any of Midnight, Texas' episodes see a rating above that?

Grimm Season 6 Will Be 13 Episodes Initially

Per Deadline, the sixth season of Grimm will initially have an order of 13 episodes, not the standard 22. However, there is an option to expand the order.

What do you think this could mean? Time share with Shades of Blue or a new show, or even The Mysteries of Laura? Let us know in the comments below!

NBC Renew/Cancel Watch: 'Crowded' Certain to be Canceled

Week 28

KEY

• Show title (Average adults 18-49 rating to the nearest tenth / Most recent rating)

[F] - Indicates a Friday-night show, which will typically have lower ratings
[O] - Indicates an NBC-owned show, which will typically have a higher chance at renewal

CANCELED

• Heroes Reborn (1.3 / 1.0) [O]
• The Player (0.8 / 0.8)
• Truth Be Told (0.6 / 0.4) [F][O]
• You, Me and the Apocalypse (0.7 / 0.6)

CERTAIN TO BE CANCELED

• Crowded (1.3 / 0.8) [O]
• Heartbeat (1.1 / 0.9)
• Telenovela (1.0 / 0.9) [O]
• Undateable (0.8 / 0.8) [F]

LIKELY TO BE CANCELED

• The Mysteries of Laura (1.1 / 1.2)

ON THE BUBBLE

• None

LIKELY TO BE RENEWED

• The Carmichael Show (1.2 / 1.0)
• Grimm (0.9 / 0.9) [F][O]

CERTAIN TO BE RENEWED

• None

RENEWED

• The Blacklist (1.5 / 1.3)
• Blindspot (2.1 / 1.6)
• Chicago Fire (1.8 / 1.7) [O]
• Chicago Med (1.8 / 1.8) [O]
• Chicago P.D. (1.6 / 1.5) [O]
• Law & Order: SVU (1.7 / 1.4) [O]
• Shades of Blue (1.2 / 1.1) [O]
• Superstore (1.5 / 1.4) [O]

ANALYSIS

Crowded finally went fractional this week. With that being said, I have decided to move it down to "certain to be canceled," for it will most likely only go even more downhill from here. The reason Crowded skipped the "likely cancellation" phase is because, in a recently released interview with Campaign U.S. (link here), an NBC network president revealed that they will be ordering and trying out a wide variety of comedies next season. Therefore, there just won't be any room for Crowded (no pun intended) and its fractional ratings.

I have also quietly moved Telenovela and Undateable down to "certain to be canceled" because of the new information revealed in the Campaign U.S. interview.

Coming up next week: Undateable vs. Telenovela. If only one could get a renewal, which would it be? Find out my thoughts and more next Sunday!

POLL OF THE WEEK

NBC Renew/Cancel Watch: 'Heartbeat' Certain to be Canceled

Week 27

KEY

• Show title (Average adults 18-49 rating to the nearest tenth / Most recent rating)

[F] - Indicates a Friday-night show, which will typically have lower ratings
[O] - Indicates an NBC-owned show, which will typically have a higher chance at renewal

CANCELED

• Heroes Reborn (1.3 / 1.0) [O]
• The Player (0.8 / 0.8)
• Truth Be Told (0.6 / 0.4) [F][O]
• You, Me and the Apocalypse (0.7 / 0.6)

CERTAIN TO BE CANCELED

• Heartbeat (1.2 / 0.9)

LIKELY TO BE CANCELED

• The Mysteries of Laura (1.1 / 1.2)
• Telenovela (1.0 / 0.9) [O]
• Undateable (0.8 / 0.8) [F]

ON THE BUBBLE

• Crowded (1.4 / 1.0) [O]

LIKELY TO BE RENEWED

• The Carmichael Show (1.2 / 1.3)
• Grimm (0.9 / 0.9) [F][O]

CERTAIN TO BE RENEWED

• None

RENEWED

• The Blacklist (1.5 / 1.3)
• Blindspot (2.1 / 1.5)
• Chicago Fire (1.8 / 1.6) [O]
• Chicago Med (1.8 / 1.5) [O]
• Chicago P.D. (1.6 / 1.4) [O]
• Law & Order: SVU (1.7 / 1.5) [O]
• Shades of Blue (1.2 / 1.0) [O]
• Superstore (1.5 / 1.4) [O]

ANALYSIS

Heartbeat premiered to a modest 1.4 rating following The Voice on Tuesday, but dropped to a not-so-modest 0.9 on Wednesday. Because Heartbeat already went fractional in its second episode, I have decided to skip the "bubble" stage and immediately label it as "certain to be canceled." Does NBC now wish it gave The Mysteries of Laura a full-season order? Probably. Does The Mysteries of Laura now have a shot at renewal? Not so fast...but maybe. It isn't "certain to be canceled," just "likely"...

Also, you may have noticed that I moved The Carmichael Show up to "likely to be renewed." After two weeks of performing decently behind Little Big Shots, I thought this move was only fair. Even though it's not saying much, TCS is NBC's #2 comedy. With that AND critical acclaim, I think it's safe to say that TCS definitely has more than a 50% shot at renewal.

POLL OF THE WEEK