Below are the predictions for Week 26 of CBS Renew/Cancel, followed by an analysis. This edition also brings back CBS March Madness, starting with Sweet 16 matchups. The following changes have been made from Week 25:
Renew/Cancel Category Changes-Fire Country is upgraded from Certain Renew to Renewed
-Ghosts is upgraded from Certain Renew to Renewed
Renew/Cancel Power Ranking Changes
-Fire Country is up two spots from #3 to #1.
-Tracker is down one spot from #1 to #2.
Scripted Predictions
Unscripted Predictions
Fire Country’s early Season 3 renewal was a no-brainer for several reasons. First, Fire Country is fully owned and has two spinoffs in development. One of these spinoffs is reportedly being eyed for the 2024-25 season, presumably as a replacement to Blue Bloods. Second, it’s one of their highest-rated fully owned shows. It’s consistently the highlight of Friday nights in the Adults 18-49 demo, and its season premiere saw a 71% lift in viewership in the 7-day multi-platform metric. That’s tied for the second-largest lift on the network. Third, CBS is already losing S.W.A.T. at the end of this season and Blue Bloods by the end of the calendar year. If they for whatever reason decided to cancel Fire Country, they would have to start from scratch on Friday nights no later than the beginning of 2025.
With Fire Country escaping a sophomore slump, a spinoff being ordered to series for next season is looking increasingly likely. If this success continues and it’s able to spawn a franchise, it may even become one of the few shows to make it past the 7 season mark in the future.
Ghosts and The Neighborhood
The renewal of Ghosts was similarly unsurprising, given the high ratings (both linear and streaming) and the ownership factor (it is co-owned with Lionsgate and BBC America). It also arguably reinforces The Neighborhood’s belonging in the Certain Renew category. With Ghosts renewed and two new sitcoms ordered to series, CBS needs a fourth to form a cohesive schedule. With no other sitcoms looking far enough in development for a fall 2024 premiere, The Neighborhood is looking like a lock to return. Don’t be surprised if it’s for a final season, though, whether that’s announced upfront or at a later date. It would be entering its seventh season in 2024-25, and CBS does have a couple sitcoms in early development.
The Amazing Race
The Amazing Race returned for its 36th season this past Wednesday with a 0.37 Adults 18-49 Live + Same Day rating, retaining just under half of its Survivor lead-in. I still think CBS can try for better in the time slot, and use The Amazing Race in another capacity. The real question is how the ratings hold as the season progresses. The Amazing Race 36 was actually filmed before The Amazing Race 35. Unlike the fall cycle, which was filmed with the intention of filling a 90-minute time slot, this cycle was filmed back in 2022 with the intention of filling a 60-minute time slot. There was even speculation that this season would air as a Paramount+ original, if at all. CBS might really be pushing it here, demonstrating how stretched thin they are with their unscripted department.
CBS Renew/Cancel March Madness
It’s time once again for CBS Renew/Cancel March Madness. Like last season, the bracket will consist solely of scripted shows and are seeded based on their Week 26 Renew/Cancel Power Rankings. Due to there being 17 shows, Bob Hearts Abishola and S.W.A.T. will have a play-in matchup. Last season, Fire Country won the tournament as the 4 seed. Can it have a repeat victory as the 1 seed? Or will it go out early while some shows that underperformed redeem themselves? It’s all up to you.
Below is the bracket as well as the polls for the first round, aka the Sweet Sixteen. Vote for whichever show you would like to see advance to the Elite Eight! You can also vote in the NBC Renew/Cancel March Madness here and the ABC Renew/Cancel March Madness here.
UPDATE: Voting for Round 2 has now begun on CBS Renew/Cancel Week 27 here.