Below is a table with predictions for Week 10 of CBS Renew/Cancel, followed by an analysis. This week’s column also includes an analysis on the final season announcements of Young Sheldon and Blue Bloods, as well as what NCIS: Sydney’s early success could mean for the future of franchises. Let me know what you think by voting in the poll and leaving a comment!
NCIS: Sydney
NCIS: Sydney had an excellent hold in Week 2 in the Adults 18-49 Live + Same Day ratings, down two hundredths from its premiere to a 0.29. That’s nearly double the rating of lead-out Raid The Cage and above pretty much everything CBS is airing these days outside of Wednesdays. Paramount is also boasting about NCIS: Sydney’s premiere viewership on Paramount+, including that it’s the highest-viewed premiere on the platform for an Australian TV show. A Season 2 renewal is not up to CBS, but they certainly would not mind if NCIS: Sydney were to receive one. In a time where NCIS: Los Angeles has become too expensive to continue with NCIS likely to follow, CBS would gladly take an NCIS series that is cheaper and filmed overseas if it can attract a similar-sized audience. If NCIS: Sydney can only do short seasons, don’t be surprised to see it, Blue Bloods, and either NCIS or NCIS: Hawai’i to share two time slots next season.
With NCIS: Sydney premiering with so much promise, one has to wonder if more international franchise spin-offs will pop up on CBS’s schedule as part of an effort to reduce production costs. FBI: International is a step in that direction, as it films and takes places primarily in Budapest. However, it’s not an English-language series produced for a German audience, and there are plenty of other international branches of the FBI that can be honed in on.
The CSI franchise can expand pretty much anywhere, if there’s the demand. It’s an internationally popular franchise, a factor that likely landed the low-rated CSI: Vegas its third (and second) season. Even NCIS itself could plausible expand further, though likely not in the immediate future.
One other series that could be suitable for an international spinoff is Fire Country. A sheriff-based spinoff is said to be in development for CBS, and a second spinoff is also in development. This makes it likely that CBS will make a franchise out of Fire Country on Fridays. A Fire Country spinoff based in Australia would be topical in Australia and compatible with the currently-airing series in the United States. While right now this is all far from reality, it has to be something Paramount is thinking about should NCIS: Sydney continue to perform well.
Young Sheldon and Blue Bloods
CBS has already announced that Young Sheldon and Blue Bloods will be ending after their respective upcoming seasons. After a season with few cancelations in 2022-23, CBS is finally starting to look like a network that recently changed its leadership. Blue Bloods and Young Sheldon are two of CBS’s top five most-viewed series in Live + 35 Day + Multiplatform according to figures releases earlier this year, making both considerably high-profile cancelations. Both were listed in Cancel columns in the pre-season predictions; Young Sheldon was predicted as Tilts Cancel, and Blue Bloods was predicted as Leans Cancel.
With S.W.A.T. also ending after its upcoming season, CBS has already announced three of their four most senior scripted series are coming to an end. Next to NCIS, the senior-most scripted series on CBS not to have been announced as in its final season is The Neighborhood. There may very well be more as well; Bob Hearts Abishola is currently in the Likely Cancel category, and negotiations may come down to the wire for partially unowned series like FBI: Most Wanted and The Equalizer. Even NCIS itself could find itself in trouble sooner or later.
CBS’s Thursday nights are about to get a lot harder to schedule without Young Sheldon. They still have Ghosts, which is proving to be just as good a performer as Young Sheldon. They also have a new motorsport-based comedy in development, with more likely to follow. The rest of the night is arguably on weaker grounds, provided So Help Me Todd doesn’t suddenly turn into the huge hit CBS treats it as.
With S.W.A.T. and Blue Bloods ending soon, CBS is certainly relying on Fire Country to not have a sophomore slump. If that does not happen and all goes according to plan, it seems the Country franchise will be occupying Fridays for CBS soon. There’s clearly the appetite for a drama in the Fridays at 10pm time slot, making it unlikely the time slot will be used as another “death slot.”
Raid The Cage
I said I’d upgrade Raid The Cage if it showed promise on Tuesday. Instead of showing promise, Raid The Cage put up ratings reminiscent of LoterÃa Loca, notching a 0.15 in the demo out of its 0.29 lead-in. Granted, Raid The Cage has had solid retention on Fridays. However, it’s done little to prove it actually deserves to get another season. Its best hope is a renewal for summer, but a 0.15 rating on a weekday in November does not bode well for those chances. It remains in Leans Cancel — but it’s not over yet for Raid The Cage.
According to FutonCritic, Raid The Cage is moving to Tuesdays for its final three episodes in January. Its previously-scheduled Friday airings have been scratched and rescheduled to the same night that it just posted a 0.15. If Raid The Cage can have a late-season rally, its chances of renewal will increase.
The Price Is Right At Night and Let’s Make A Deal Primetime
Like Raid The Cage, Let’s Make A Deal Primetime completely underwhelmed in its special weekday airing. A 0.23 out of a rerun of The Price Is Right At Night’s 0.33 is a far cry for how it performed earlier this year, leading one to wonder where all the viewers went. Unlike with other shows, it’s still plausible for both to pop up as specials in small batches whenever CBS needs them. Given the unique nature of The Price Is Right At Night and Let’s Make A Deal Primetime, I’ve decided to run a poll on if they should even be included in the weekly Renew/Cancel table.