CBS Orders Blue Bloods Spinoff Boston Blue

Blue Bloods has ended its run on CBS, but fans of the long-running procedural have something to be happy about: a spinoff of the series has been given a straight-to-series order to air on the network next season. Titled Boston Blue, the spinoff will star Donnie Wahlberg, with his character relocating to Boston and joining their police department. Boston Blue was not initially conceived as a Blue Bloods spinoff, and this project is different than the ones that were said to be in early development around the time Blue Bloods went off the air, one of which was also centered around Wahlberg's Danny Reagan. Boston Blue is one of two spinoffs already confirmed for next season on CBS, along with Fire Country offshoot Sheriff Country, while spinoffs of The Equalizer, The Neighborhood and FBI are also in development, without any official orders yet for any of those.

CBS Renew/Cancel Week 10: Good News and Bad News for The Equalizer

CBS Renew/Cancel Week 6: What’s Next For Blue Bloods?

 

CBS Renew/Cancel Week 12: Let’s Not Make A Deal For A Scripted Purge

 

Blue Bloods Ending After 14 Seasons

Less than a week after announcing the ending of Young Sheldon, CBS has announced that another long-running series will come to an end. Police procedural Blue Bloods, which debuted in 2010 and has been a staple of CBS Friday nights ever since (save for a brief move to Wednesdays midway through its first season), will end after its upcoming fourteenth season. The season will run for eighteen episodes, with ten of those episodes airing this midseason and the other eight airing next fall, meaning that Blue Bloods will still be a part of CBS' schedule for one more season after this one. The series has been highly successful for CBS, with the series being a staple of syndication and one of the most-watched shows on CBS, even as its 18-49 ratings have waned (much like ratings for all of TV as a whole) in recent years. Tom Selleck starred in the series, alongside Donnie Wahlberg, Bridget Moynahan, Will Estes and Len Cariou.

CBS Renew/Cancel Week 3: Lotería Loca Did Not Win The Ratings Lotería + Super Bowl Final Season Announcements Possibilities

 

Blue Bloods Renewed for Season 14

CBS continues to solidify its schedule for next season, as another show with a previously-outstanding fate has received a renewal. Blue Bloods, CBS's Friday at 10 staple, is the latest show to get the green light for another season, leaving just three shows on the Tiffany Network that are yet to be renewed or canceled. Cast contracts are what held up the renewal for the solidly-rated Blue Bloods, with its cast agreeing to pay cuts in order to secure a fourteenth season. With NCIS: Los Angeles on its way out this season, Blue Bloods is now CBS's second-longest-running scripted series, only behind NCIS. The show has remained a reliable ratings performer for CBS over the years, this year drawing a 0.40 in the key 18-49 demo and regularly drawing one of the largest audiences on Friday nights. Tom Selleck, Donnie Wahlberg, Bridget Moynahan, Will Estes and Len Cariou lead the cast and have since its debut in 2010. This is a correct prediction for The TV Ratings Guide.

CBS Renew/Cancel Special Edition: A Look Back At How The Predictions Have Changed This Year

  

Blue Bloods Renewed by CBS

Another veteran member of the CBS lineup has received a renewal ahead of the quickly-approaching May Upfronts. This time, it's Friday staple Blue Bloods receiving a renewal. Tom Selleck's police procedural is nearing the end of its twelfth season, and its run has now been extended to at least thirteen seasons. Despite a 15% drop in the ratings from last season, Blue Bloods remains one of Friday night's top shows, and easily rates above all others in total viewers. It is also one of the highest-rated 10 PM dramas on television. It is the only CBS Friday show this season to secure a renewal for next season, aside from SWAT, which was shifted to Sundays at midseason. Donnie Wahlberg, Bridget Moynahan, Len Cariou and Will Estes lead the procedurals cast alongside Selleck. This is a correct prediction for The TV Ratings Guide.

CBS Renews Five Drama Series, Including Blue Bloods, Magnum PI and SWAT

CBS has renewed five drama series on their lineup, following the network's earlier renewals of FBI and FBI: Most Wanted and cancellation of MacGyver and NCIS: New Orleans. NCIS, SWAT, Magnum PI, Bull and Blue Bloods are today's renewals. All are veteran parts of the CBS lineup. NCIS is the network's longest-running scripted series, debuting in 2003 and securing a 19th season today. It stars Mark Harmon and has spawned two spinoffs, with one possibly on the way. Its 0.86 average is the highest of any scripted series on CBS (save for the NFL-boosted FBI and The Equalizer episodes). SWAT is in its fourth season, and while its 0.42 average is the lowest of any scripted series on CBS aside from Clarice, it has been a solid delayed and streaming performer for CBS. Shemar Moore stars in the series, which is a Sony co-production. Magnum PI has done well for CBS since its move to Fridays and is now in its third season. It's averaged 0.53 this season and stars Jay Hernande and Perdita Weeks. Like Magnum PI, Blue Bloods also airs on Fridays and averages 0.53. It stars Tom Selleck, who won an Emmy for his starring role in the original Magnum PI series from the 1980s. The renewal of Magnum and Blue Bloods comes only two weeks after fellow Friday series MacGyver was canceled. All of these renewals are correct predictions for The TV Ratings Guide.

These renewals leave just four CBS dramas with fates yet undetermined - All Rise, NCIS: Los Angeles, SEAL Team and freshman Clarice.

Blue Bloods Renewed for Season 11

The most veteran member of CBS's Friday procedural lineup will be back for an eleventh season. The New York-set procedural is a solid performer for CBS despite a 19% drop this season, averaging 0.65 for its season. That gives it the lowest average of the CBS Friday block, though it consistently leads in viewers and has topped the night in the demo in its most recent episodes. Tom Selleck, Donnie Wahlberg, Bridget Moynahan and Len Cariou star in the series. This is a correct prediction for The TV Ratings Guide.

CBS Renew/Cancel: ‘Criminal Minds’ Likely to be Renewed + ‘Instinct’ Downgraded

"Criminal Minds" (CBS)

Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All in-season, scripted primetime shows airing on CBS in the 2017-18 season are included in the prediction table below. My predictions are current as of April 24, 2018.

The key to the right indicates the colors associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes current season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows. The shows are ordered by their season averages against other scripted CBS shows.

Rank	Show	Season Low / High /Average	Y2Y Change
1	The Big Bang Theory	2.4 / 4.1 / 2.79	-10%
2	Young Sheldon	1.8 / 3.8 / 2.25	--
3	Mom	1.3 / 1.8 / 1.48	+3%
4	NCIS	1.2 / 1.6 / 1.42	-18%
5	Kevin Can Wait	0.9 / 2.3 / 1.21	-25%
6	Bull	1.0 / 1.3 / 1.19	-17%
7	Life In Pieces	0.9 / 1.3 / 1.14	-10%
8	SEAL Team	0.8 / 1.5 / 1.04	--
9	Man with a Plan	0.8 / 1.1 / 1.01	-19%
10	Me, Myself & I	0.7 / 1.6 / 1.00	--
11	Hawaii Five-0	0.9 / 1.1 / 0.99	-13%
-	Criminal Minds	0.9 / 1.3 / 0.99	-28%
13	S.W.A.T.	0.8 / 1.1 / 0.97	--
-	NCIS: New Orleans	0.8 / 1.1 / 0.97	-18%
-	9JKL	0.7 / 1.5 / 0.97	--
16	NCIS: LA	0.8 / 1.3 / 0.94	-28%
17	Blue Bloods	0.8 / 1.1 / 0.92	-26%
18	Superior Donuts	0.8 / 1.0 / 0.91	-22%
-	Wisdom of the Crowd	0.7 / 1.3 / 0.91	--
20	MacGyver	0.8 / 0.9 / 0.85	-21%
21	Instinct	0.6 / 1.3 / 0.88	--
22	Scorpion	0.7 / 1.0 / 0.81	-32%
23	Living Biblically	0.6 / 0.8 / 0.70	--
24	Madam Secretary	0.5 / 0.8 / 0.65	-26%

The table has been updated to reflect the recent renewals for the following series: Mom, NCIS, Bull, SEAL Team, Hawaii Five-0, S.W.A.T., NCIS: New Orleans, NCIS: LA, Blue Bloods, MacGyver, and Madam Secretary. These were correct predictions by the CBS Renew/Cancel.

As of 4/19, Living Biblically has been pulled from the schedule and is effectively cancelled with five episodes unaired. This was a correct prediction. 

Below are two prediction changes in this edition of the CBS R/C. An analysis for each adjustment has been provided.

CRIMINAL MINDS The show has been on the bubble for practically the entire season. It's a tough one to predict, considering that the networks are increasingly unpredictable with what they're willing to keep. Some shows that seem like they should be relieved of duty are just not to that point as far as the network heads are concerned. I previously decided to lean into a cancellation for Criminal Minds prior to all the early renewals, but I've since decided to upgrade it to a likely renewal. While it's likely to be the veteran series to end first due to its age, declining ratings, costs, and lack of full net ownership, it's still a respectable player that has done OK in its move to 10. As the season's gone on, its stability in the 0.9-1.0 range doesn't look horrible, especially since none of their new dramas (SEAL Team and S.W.A.T., specifically) have managed to regularly rate above that. It hasn't been moved to a lower priority Friday or Sunday slot at this point, so while the present time slot downgrade suggests CBS is phasing the procedural out, there is room for alternative scheduling before it's completely off the air. CBS can probably do better with cheaper alternatives going forward (especially on Wednesdays), but a 14th season that sends the series off with over 300 episodes might be just what CBS and ABC Studios are capable of negotiating. They frankly don't have to do anything for the show -- in fact, the network failed to give "final seasons" to past long-running dramas -- but some of them weren't around for as long as Criminal Minds. CSI is probably the most comparable series in this situation, and that iconic show at least had a movie to wrap things up (as much as you can "wrap up" for a crime procedural). Something tells me that CBS knows they could've prepared better for CSI's end, and they'll do a bit better with Criminal Minds. That might mean a reduced order for the last season, but they can find a way to air it if it's worth producing and ensures a smooth transition into CBS's next chapter post-Minds.

My reluctance to promote a renewal prediction throughout the current season has been, perhaps, tied up in my thinking that CBS has to end something soon. Criminal Minds always seemed like a fair candidate (and it is, no doubt) because of the reasons I've already mentioned, in addition to its inability to launch successful spinoffs like NCIS has achieved. It's in a vulnerable position where the network could truly take it or leave it, so I don't think my general pessimism has been unwarranted with that in mind. Ultimately, CBS didn't end any veterans last year, though they did send Code Black and Elementary to summer. This pretty much says that while they still need slots on the fall schedule for new shows, they don't really need to cancel much in order to make that happen. Criminal Minds could be held until midseason, as could Scorpion and/or Madam Secretary. It's doable, or at least CBS would probably think as much and navigate that scheduling when the deadline hits. Whether or not it makes financial sense for CBS to keep all these shows is another question altogether, but it's nearly impossible to predict how negotiations for Criminal Minds will go when it's consistently down to the wire between the network and studios involved. The positive it's looking at is that cast contracts for the original actors seem to be good to go for a Season 14, which should make talks somewhat easier. As such, I'm leaning into a renewal at this point, but a cancellation would be far from a surprise. 
INSTINCT The show is simply too weak to return in a priority slot next season. Through five airings, it's averaged a 0.88 rating in the demo, including two recent 0.6 performances without sports/event exposure. CBS has renewed soft midseason shows before, but the ones that come to mind had support from existing franchises (CSI: Cyber and Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders) in addition to strong international potential. Instinct really doesn't boast the same kind of package, and CBS doesn't need it. The only reason it might stand a chance is if it's internally liked to an irrational degree, but based on ratings performance, its late-in-the-game scheduling, and CBS's two freshman drama renewals, it's likely to be cancelled. 

CBS Renew/Cancel: ‘Criminal Minds’ Could Go Either Way

"Criminal Minds" | CBS

Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All in-season, scripted primetime shows airing on CBS in the 2017-18 season are included in the prediction table below. My predictions are current as of February 23, 2018.

The key to the right indicates the colors associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes current season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows. The shows are ordered by their season averages against other scripted CBS shows.

Rank	Show	Season Low / High /Average	Y2Y Change
1	The Big Bang Theory	2.5 / 4.1 / 2.92	+3%
2	Young Sheldon	1.8 / 3.8 / 2.37	--
3	Mom	1.4 / 1.8 / 1.50	+17%
4	NCIS	1.4 / 1.6 / 1.46	-15%
5	Kevin Can Wait	1.1 / 2.3 / 1.29	-20%
6	Bull	1.0 / 1.3 / 1.21	-15%
7	Life In Pieces	1.1 / 1.3 / 1.18	-7%
8	SEAL Team	0.9 / 1.5 / 1.09	--
9	Man with a Plan	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.07	-14%
10	S.W.A.T.	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.03	--
11	Criminal Minds	0.9 / 1.3 / 1.01	-27%
-	Hawaii Five-0	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.01	-11%
13	NCIS: New Orleans	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.00	-15%
-	Me, Myself & I	0.7 / 1.6 / 1.00	--
15	9JKL	0.7 / 1.5 / 0.97	--
16	NCIS: LA	0.8 / 1.3 / 0.96	-27%
17	Superior Donuts	0.8 / 1.0 / 0.95	-19%
18	Blue Bloods	0.8 / 1.1 / 0.94	-24%
19	Wisdom of the Crowd	0.7 / 1.3 / 0.91	--
20	MacGyver	0.8 / 0.9 / 0.86	-20%
21	Scorpion	0.7 / 1.0 / 0.84	-30%
22	Madam Secretary	0.6 / 0.8 / 0.67	-23%

CRIMINAL MINDS v. SEAL TEAM Criminal Minds is old, expensive, and only partly owned. Its ratings are just OK in the 10pm slot, and it's part of a disappointing 9-11 block on Wednesdays. It's currently down about 27% year-to-year, a relatively sharp decline that is due in part to its move from 9 to 10. Comparatively, SEAL Team is newer, less expensive, and 100% owned by CBS. The ratings for SEAL aren't strong for its slot and are less impressive than what S.W.A.T. has managed on Thursdays at 10, but it's still one of CBS's top dramas. Both of the Wednesday dramas could feasibly be renewed or cancelled this year, and they're not necessarily in competition, but I get the feeling that Wednesdays will need a shake-up. I'm more skeptical about Criminal Minds at this point and have decided to place it on the bubble. As always, its fate relies on negotiations between CBS and ABC Studios, which is always a risky place to be in. Cast members have come and gone in recent years, so overall costs and cast talks could be what brings the iconic procedural to an end this year after several spinoffs failed to carry on the legacy. CBS has benefitted from a long relationship with Criminal Minds, but they might now be in a place to prioritize their new blood and younger series with syndication prospects. SEAL Team remains likely to be renewed for now. The surprise success of the upcoming new drama Instinct could affect SEAL Team's fate going forward.
SCORPION Yes, it's CBS's second lowest-rated series on the air right now. No, it doesn't have a syndication deal at the moment. However, the Eye Network is never to be counted out when it comes to its ability to sell procedurals into syndication. Madam Secretary and NCIS: New Orleans recently solidified deals that will keep them on the air, which gives hope to Scorpion from the same 2014 class. While Person of Interest already had a syndication deal when its final season was announced, I can see Scorpion getting similar treatment with a benched 13-episode fifth season, which would give CBS more time to sell it and add episodes to the package. They could also renew it for a 22-episode fifth season and still bench it, similar to Elementary at present. Realistically, CBS does not bring it back to the fall schedule with its current ratings. However, if they can find midseason slots for shows like Elementary and Code Black with varied episode counts, it seems plausible that Scorpion can continue in some fashion while its afterlife opportunities are looked at. It seems unlikely for CBS to just drop the show completely after four seasons, when there isn't a recent precedent for that. As such, it's still likely to be renewed.

CBS Renew/Cancel: ‘S.W.A.T.’ Likely to be Renewed

Shemar Moore ("S.W.A.T.") | CBS

Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All in-season, scripted primetime shows airing on CBS in the 2017-18 season are included in the prediction table below. My predictions are current as of December 28, 2017.

The key to the right indicates the colors associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes current season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows. The shows are ordered by their season averages against other scripted CBS shows.

Rank	Show	Season Low / High /Average	Y2Y Change
1	The Big Bang Theory	2.5 / 4.1 / 2.89	-7%
2	Young Sheldon	1.8 / 3.8 / 2.33	--
3	Mom	1.4 / 1.8 / 1.54	+2%
4	NCIS	1.4 / 1.6 / 1.43	-17%
5	Kevin Can Wait	1.1 / 2.3 / 1.29	-20%
6	Bull	1.0 / 1.3 / 1.19	-17%
7	Life In Pieces	1.1 / 1.3 / 1.15	-9%
8	SEAL Team	0.9 / 1.5 / 1.14	--
9	Criminal Minds	0.9 / 1.3 / 1.05	-25%
10	Man with a Plan	0.9 / 1.0 / 1.02	-18%
11	S.W.A.T.	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.01	--
-	Me, Myself & I	0.7 / 1.6 / 1.01	--
-	NCIS: New Orleans	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.01	-14%
14	Hawaii Five-0	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.02	-10%
15	9JKL	0.7 / 1.5 / 0.99	--
16	NCIS: LA	0.8 / 1.3 / 0.95	-27%
17	Blue Bloods	0.8 / 1.1 / 0.94	-25%
-	Wisdom of the Crowd	0.7 / 1.3 / 0.94	--
19	Superior Donuts	0.8 / 1.0 / 0.91	-22%
20	MacGyver	0.8 / 0.9 / 0.84	-23%
21	Scorpion	0.7 / 1.0 / 0.83	-31%
22	Madam Secretary	0.6 / 0.8 / 0.67	-24%

S.W.A.T. The new drama has averaged just over a 1.0 across eight airings. That's rather impressive when compared directly to CBS's other new dramas. Specifically, this looks rather good against SEAL Team, which airs an hour earlier on Wednesdays, has one of the network's biggest lead-ins, and has only done marginally better despite the help. Of course, Wisdom of the Crowd has turned less than favorable results on Sundays and was not given a full season's confidence by CBS. This leaves S.W.A.T. and SEAL Team in serious contention for renewal, and as it stands now they both seem viable. Compared to past Thursday at 10 occupants, the show is a notable improvement over Pure Genius,, Training Day, and Rush Hour. I've upgraded S.W.A.T. to Likely to be Renewed status due to its stability, good 10pm numbers and improvement of the time slot, and CBS's full season order. 

CBS Renew/Cancel: Changes for 'MacGyver,' 'The Odd Couple'

CBS

Welcome to the second edition of the TV Ratings Guide's CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All scripted, primetime shows are included in the prediction table below once they have premiered for the season. An analysis of any new prediction changes or observations follows. My current predictions are as of December 12, 2016.

The key to the right indicates which colors are associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows that have not already been officially renewed or canceled. These are provided for reasoning with and understanding my predictions. The shows are ordered by their season averages against only other scripted CBS shows.

Rank	Show Title	Season Low / High /Average	Y2Y Change
1	The Big Bang Theory	3.1 / 3.8 / 3.39	-9.2%
2	Kevin Can Wait	1.3 / 2.7 / 1.90	--
3	NCIS	1.7 / 2.2 / 1.87	-15.2%
4	Bull	1.5 / 2.2 / 1.67	--
5	The Great Indoors	1.1 / 1.9 / 1.52	--
6	Criminal Minds	1.3 / 1.9 / 1.51	-15.8%
7	NCIS: LA	1.2 / 1.7 / 1.49	+12.7%
8	2 Broke Girls	1.3 / 1.7 / 1.43	-11.3%
9	Mom	1.2 / 1.5 / 1.37	-19.1%
10	Man with a Plan	1.2 / 1.6 / 1.35	--
11	Life in Pieces	1.0 / 1.5 / 1.30	-35.1%
12	NCIS: New Orleans	1.2 / 1.5 / 1.28	-26.7%
13	Scorpion	1.1 / 1.5 / 1.28	-27.5%
14	Hawaii Five-0	1.2 / 1.4 / 1.25	+9.3%
15	Blue Bloods	1.1 / 1.3 / 1.20	-3.3%
16	MacGyver	0.9 / 1.7 / 1.15	--
17	The Odd Couple	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.03	-27.2%
18	Code Black	0.7 / 1.2 / 0.99	-22.1%
19	Madam Secretary	0.7 / 1.1 / 0.97	-19.0%
20	Pure Genius	0.8 / 1.0 / 0.91	--
21	Elementary	0.6 / 0.8 / 0.70	-27.3%

Prediction Changes:

MacGyver +1

On any other night of the week than Friday, MacGyver's ratings for an 8pm show would be devastatingly low for a freshman series. However, its greatest advantage is that CBS plopped it on a night of relatively modest expectations, where veteran shows like Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods garner a mostly 50+ audience but have enough bite in the A18-49 demo that they remain profitable and regularly top the night across the networks. MacGyver joins them as another CBS drama that draws 7-8 million viewers but averages a 1.15 demo rating through 10 episodes. Considering that it's only dipped below 1.0 once so far, things are looking OK. CBS has a stable night and that's all they could ask for. As such, MacGyver's leaning renewable should its consistency in the ratings continue. 

The Odd Couple -1
The Odd Couple has officially been called at 13 episodes for its third season, slowly bringing its episode count to 38 since it began its run in the spring of 2015. That's not a positive sign of hope for this series. Its current season is down 27 percent from the last, which itself was down 36 percent from the first. This was the sitcom's first fall slot, and it shows that the spring was more its pace as it was the lowest-rated sitcom on the network out of eight this time. CBS could keep renewing it to eventually get it to syndication, but here's why they won't: it would need to reach, in all likelihood, season 6 in order to become viable for a decent syndication package. That's not happening if it isn't getting a full third season, which it would need in order to get it there in 5. Barring an unlikely and quite significant uptick in the ratings for its final episodes of the season, I am calling a certain cancellation for The Odd Couple. 

CBS Renew/Cancel: 'Kevin Can Wait' Likely to be Renewed

CBS

Welcome to the second edition of The TV Ratings Guide's CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All scripted, primetime shows are included in the prediction table below once they have premiered for the season. An analysis of any new prediction changes or observations follows. My current predictions are as of October 8, 2016. *Apologies for the delay in getting this updated for the new season. From now on the watch column will be updated regularly.

The key to the right indicates which colors are associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows that have not already been officially renewed or canceled. These are provided for reasoning with and understanding my predictions. The shows are ordered by their season averages against only other scripted CBS shows.

Rank	Show Title	Season Low / High /Average	Y2Y Change
1	The Big Bang Theory	3.5 / 3.8 / 3.61	-3.3%
2	Kevin Can Wait	2.2 / 2.7 / 2.49	--
3	NCIS	1.9 / 2.2 / 2.07	-6.5%
4	Bull	1.9 / 2.2 / 2.05	--
5	Criminal Minds	1.4 / 1.9 / 1.63	-8.9%
6	NCIS: LA	- / 1.5 / 1.52	+15.2%
7	Scorpion	- / 1.5 / 1.50	-15.3%
8	MacGyver	1.1 / 1.7 / 1.37	--
9	NCIS: New Orleans	1.4 / 1.5 / 1.45	-16.3%
10	Hawaii Five-0	1.3 / 1.4 / 1.33	+17.0%
11	Blue Bloods	1.2 / 1.3 / 1.27	+2.2%
12	Madam Secretary	- / 1.1 / 1.10	-8.3%
13	Code Black	1.0 / 1.2 / 1.09	-14.2%
14	Elementary	- / 0.8 / 0.80	-16.7%

Why is "The Big Bang Theory" Certain to be Renewed?
Despite the uncertainty surrounding contract negotiations, especially involving million dollar weekly paychecks for three highly desirable leads, there's little reason to believe that a deal won't be made for The Big Bang Theory to return for an 11th season. Creator Chuck Lorre and CBS President Glenn Geller have said that it's likely to happen, and they want it to happen. I wouldn't think that the biggest comedy of the past few years would abruptly end; rather, I foresee a final season being announced prior to that season's premiere, which could be 12 or beyond.

Why is "Kevin Can Wait" Likely to be Renewed?

Kevin James' return to television has been embraced warmly, as the show has averaged a 2.5 demo in its first three episodes. It dropped half a ratings point in the last two weeks, but it's still above a 2.0, which is great for CBS, even for the post-TBBT timeslot occupant. The real test for the sitcom will be when it anchors Mondays in a few weeks. 

Why is "Bull" Likely to be Renewed?
The freshman drama has one of the cushiest slots on network TV right now, airing behind NCIS and before NCIS: New Orleans. Michael Weatherly jumped from one hit show to another, if its 2.0 average keeps up. 

Why is "Criminal Minds" Likely to be Renewed?

Criminal Minds just debuted its 12th season. That's a huge achievement for a drama these days, and it's still chugging along with mid-to-high 1s as CBS's #3 drama and #5 scripted series. However, it did drop half a ratings point from week one to week two (1.9 to 1.4), which is something to watch as it's also a series low. While still a popular and iconic show, it's certainly no longer in its prime and there will come a point where the costs of keeping it on air become evident and outweigh the benefits. Also, the show is co-owned by ABC Studios which makes licensing fees a definite concern for renewal purposes like it's been in the past. For now it doesn't seem to be in too much immediate danger.

Why is "NCIS: LA" Certain to be Renewed?

Moving NCIS: LA to Sundays was the best decision CBS could have made. The show is thriving right now, scoring a string of 1.5s over its first three episodes of its 8th season. Its currently up 15.2 percent Y2Y and is outperforming Madam Secretary and Elementary, making it the staple for CBS Sundays that neither of the other two have shown to be. 'Certain' renewal might be a bold prediction to make, but I think its chances are very strong as part of an important franchise to CBS.

Why is "Scorpion" Certain to be Renewed?
Third guarantees fourth.

Why is "MacGyver" On the Bubble?

I'll admit to being completely floored that MacGyver managed to pull out a 1.7 premiere rating. Social media engagement is difficult to analyze for CBS shows, but apparently there was a base for this and they tuned in on a Friday night at 8:00. Week one was a major success and CBS had to be thrilled. Things looked pretty good in week two with a slight drop to a 1.4, but things got worse in week three with a slide to a 1.1. To be safely in the green the show really needed to hover above the 1.3-1.4 range. That would've been solid and something CBS could work with, but a future at or below 1.1 puts it below Blue Bloods and Hawaii Five-0 and just makes it hard to support. We'll see if it continues to drop or if it hit its bottom. 

Why is "NCIS: New Orleans" Certain to be Renewed?

Third guarantees fourth.

Why is "Hawaii Five-0" Likely to be Renewed?

This one could've gone any number of ways throughout the past few seasons and the same flux could very well happen again. It's not a young show, currently in season 7. It consistently ranks in the bottom half of CBS's slate, but it doesn't collapse either. Its afterlife on Fridays has been consistently solid on a night of lower expectations. It's super compatible with Blue Bloods and the duo has made a strong case for renewal in the past few seasons with freshman crops that haven't been outstanding. I'm betting on its continued success this season until something proves me otherwise.

Why is "Blue Bloods" Likely to be Renewed?

Literally everything said above about its sister show is applicable here.

Why is "Madam Secretary" Certain to be Renewed?

Third guarantees fourth.

Why is "Code Black" Likely to be Canceled?

Should it even have been renewed in the first place? The medical drama had an 18-episode first season that ended in February and averaged a 1.27, and somehow got saved. I don't expect the same fate after what is likely to be another short season. Apologies out to Rob Lowe, who was added to the show after The Grinder was canceled; with his addition came a 14 percent decline in ratings from an already-low performance. Not to mention, CBS also has the medical drama Pure Genius slated for premiere soon, which gives Code Black some direct competition that it doesn't need.

Why is "Elementary" Likely to be Canceled?
The only reason the show is still on the air is because of its lucrative syndication deal with WGN America, which, by most accounts, seemed like a far premature deal to make for this show ($3m/episode for 0.8s). CBS did the best they could to make this show seem moderately successful long-term by keeping it in a cushy Thursday timeslot for 4 seasons, until they finally moved it to the Sundays at 10 death slot earlier this year. There, it's shown its true value to the network. It was the second-lowest rated show on CBS last season and is currently on track to remain the lowest this season. 

CBS Renew/Cancel Watch: 'CSI: Cyber' Needs Critical Tech Support

CBS

Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All scripted, primetime shows are included in the prediction table below once they have premiered for the season. An analysis of any new prediction changes or observations follows. My current predictions are as of March 15, 2016. (Please Note: At the time of posting, the final 3/14 ratings for Supergirl, Scorpion, and NCIS: LA were not available. Thus, the 3/14 ratings will be factored into the index table in the next edition.)

The key to the right indicates which colors are associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows that have not already been officially renewed or canceled. These are provided for reasoning with and understanding my predictions. The shows are ordered by their season averages against only other scripted CBS shows.

Rank	Show Title	Season Low / High /Average	Y2Y Change
1	The Big Bang Theory	--	--
2	NCIS	2.0 / 2.7 / 2.27	-5.4%
3	Life in Pieces	1.8 / 2.6 / 2.02	--
4	Scorpion	1.5 / 2.2 / 1.84	-20.0%
5	Supergirl	1.4 / 3.1 / 1.77	--
6	NCIS: New Orleans	1.5 / 2.5 / 1.76	-16.2%
7	Criminal Minds	1.5 / 2.0 / 1.76	-29.6%
8	Mom	1.5 / 1.8 / 1.69	-26.5%
9	2 Broke Girls	1.5 / 1.7 / 1.63	-18.5%
10	Mike & Molly	1.6 / 1.7 / 1.62	-16.9%
11	Angel from Hell	1.3 / 1.6 / 1.42	--
12	Limitless	1.1 / 1.9 / 1.41	--
13	NCIS: LA	1.1 / 1.6 / 1.34	-16.3%
14	Madam Secretary	1.0 / 2.0 / 1.28	-11.1%
15	Code Black	1.0 / 1.5 / 1.26	--
16	Blue Bloods	1.1 / 1.5 / 1.25	-3.8%
17	Hawaii Five-0	1.0 / 1.4 / 1.14	-5.0%
18	The Good Wife	0.9 / 1.4 / 1.06	-11.7%
19	Elementary	0.8 / 1.2 / 1.04	-20.0%
20	CSI: Cyber	0.7 / 1.1 / 0.91	-35.0%

Why is "Life In Pieces" Certain to be Renewed? Remarkably, the freshman comedy has held up very well through 20 episodes. It has averaged 2.02 so far this season, with a season low of only 1.8. There's an audience for it. It's CBS's #2 comedy and #3 scripted series overall. It doesn't hurt that the show has received critical praise and gives CBS a relatively successful single-cam, which they persistently want to find success with. A second season is guaranteed at this point, but the real test will be how it performs away from the cushy post-Big Bang spot next season.

Why is "Scorpion" Certain to be Renewed?
The sophomore drama has been a reliable performer for CBS since its debut in 2014. Even though it's down 20 percent Y2Y, it's averaging a 1.84 and easily remains the network's #2 drama, #4 show overall, and a staple for CBS Mondays.

Why is "Supergirl" Certain to be Renewed?
Supergirl offers the highest ratings for a CBS freshman drama this season, trumping Limitless and Code Black. Some might look at its 20-episode first season as a detriment (not getting the "full 22" treatment), but it really doesn't matter at this point. CBS won't drop its best-performing new drama, especially when the network appears comfortable with and excited over its potential as an installment in the overarching network TV superhero narrative. Like Life In Pieces, the challenge will be its second season ratings. That's an issue for the 2016-17 CBS Renew/Cancel Watch.

Why is "NCIS: New Orleans" Certain to be Renewed?
The NCIS franchise is thriving. There's no way CBS severs such a lucrative franchise this season with all of the shows that are much worse off.

Why is "Criminal Minds" Certain to be Renewed?
The Y2Y drop of 29.6 percent is CBS's second worst of the season to date. However, the drama can still yield a 2.0 when it wants to. That's got serious value. Should CBS move it to 10pm next season? Probably. The 10pm hour is trouble for CBS, with Stalker, Code Black, and even CSI: Cyber's two-episode stint failing to really make a mark. Anything 1.4+ next season would be relative gold for that timeslot, while allowing a new drama to take shape at 9 after Survivor.

Why is "Mom" Certain to be Renewed?"
It's CBS's #3 comedy and will have three full seasons under its belt. You can't exactly apply the "Chuck Lorre" rule of thumb anymore, what with Mike & Molly thrown to the wolves this season, but it's still a valuable player for CBS and will live on at least through a 4th season, if not several more than that. There are absolutely no signs that this one is being eyed for a surprise cancellation.
  Why is "2 Broke Girls" Likely to be Renewed? Can the same reasoning above be applied to 2 Broke Girls? Not exactly. The raunchy comedy is in its 5th season and has been benched and moved repeatedly across CBS's schedule. All things considered, its 1.63 seasonal average isn't so bad, especially compared to Angel From Hell's weak performance in the Thursday at 9:30 timeslot (where 2BG has aired most of its episodes). Plus, it's hard to even entertain The Odd Couple in a comparative sense, seeing as though it'll return a year after it aired, with only 13 episodes for its second season. Nonetheless, The Big Bang Theory, Mom, and Life In Pieces already round out a decent slate of comedies for the network's 2016-2017 season. There's reason to believe Kat Dennings and Beth Behrs are not CBS's top priority anymore as their show continues to age, but there's little reason to believe that it won't at least get a 13-episode sixth (and final) season a la Mike & Molly. If CBS keeps just two comedy hours in the fall, then I suspect 2 Broke Girls will be benched. If CBS tries three comedy hours again, then I suspect 2 Broke Girls will be slotted in the fall. Time will tell, but the comedy will more than likely see a sixth season, even if its a short and final one.
Why is "Limitless" Likely to be Renewed?
This one has been the toughest to call for some time now. It's doing about the same as Code Black in recent months, which isn't a positive thing. However, it's a well-liked procedural that fits the CBS bill, boasts a higher seasonal average, and had the confidence from CBS with 22 episodes compared to Code Black's 18. I'm betting on CBS being generous with another of its freshman dramas, but I don't know that the same generosity can be extended to both Limitless and Code Black.

Why is "NCIS: LA" Certain to be Renewed?
Compared to its sister shows, NCIS: LA appears to be the weakest in face-value ratings. However, it's doing important work in the Monday at 10 timeslot. Not only has it saved that slot from previous failures (namely, Hostages and Intelligence), but it's putting up CBS's best 10pm numbers, often higher than CSI: Cyber, Limitless, Code Black, Elementary, and Blue Bloods. That power is not to be diminished. Again, it's part of an advantageous franchise that CBS isn't going to break up this season with many shows passively failing to push it out of contention.

Why is "Madam Secretary" Likely to be Renewed?
This show has fallen so far under the radar when it comes to talking CBS renewals and cancellations, but that's in the show's ultimate benefit. Sunday's a rough night for CBS, and with the help of football/60 Minutes overrun, Madam Secretary has so far managed to keep a pulse. CBS is already ending The Good Wife on Sundays, and CSI: Cyber, by most accounts, will be joining it at a much faster pace. They can't cancel the entire night, and this one will have two full seasons by May. A four-season run might be a legitimate investment that CBS is willing to make, with Tea Leoni temporarily serving as the new Julianna Margulies.

Why is "Code Black" Likely to be Canceled? I have my reservations about Code Black that have kept it at a cancellation level for the majority of its run. Its the weakest freshman show for the network with only a 1.26 average after 18 episodes. Traditional renew/cancel reasoning would suggest that both of those data points (1.26 average + 18-episode season) are cause for certain cancellation. However, broadcast television standards are slowly changing, Les Moonves has claimed that "around five" of the network's freshman series will be renewed, and the general ratings bar is slightly lowered every season to account for the expected annual declines. Could Code Black somehow, in some way, pull off a major win and get its second season? Yeah, it could, but it's a real reach if Limitless gets favored first. Also, Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders sequel/spinoff series will be premiering this week, which could be a determining factor for Code Black. Keep your eyes on this one in the coming week or so, amidst CBS's annual early announcements (last year was Sunday, March 22) and the arrival of Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders.

Why is "Blue Bloods" Certain to be Renewed? Blue Bloods is the staple for CBS Fridays, putting up the best numbers on the night even at the latest hour. It's down a remarkably thin 3.8 percent Y2Y and has time to kill before CBS needs to move new veterans into the Friday Retirement Farm.

Why is "Hawaii Five-0" Likely to be Renewed? Like Blue Bloods, Hawaii Five-0 is a reliable performer on Fridays. It's the third lowest-rated show on the network, but it's a Friday show and gets some slack for that. With CBS's new batch of dramas having varied levels of success, plus one drama already ending and a good two on the foreseeable way out, some veterans with syndication benefits will likely get spared. 
Why is "Elementary" Likely to be Renewed? Elementary has an incredibly lucrative $3M/episode syndication package with WGN, which is largely what has kept it around for four seasons with the low ratings it consistently has. It's moving to Sundays at 10 this season, which is where it'll have to prove its ultimate value. If it can manage to average ~1.0 in that slot, there's no reason to expect CBS to turn its cheek on its syndication prospects after this season, even for a 13-episode fifth and final run.

Why is "CSI: Cyber" Certain to be Canceled?

It's handily the lowest-rated show on the network and had its season two order cut to 18 episodes. Anyone who predicts a renewal for this one knows something that I don't. It's been said that international sales and the tie-in to the larger CSI universe can help it, but does CBS really have the room or affection for more seasons of a show that has 29 episodes, a network-low 0.91 seasonal average, gained and lost a star in a single season (Ted Danson), aired two episodes out of its timeslot, and got its episode order cut short? CBS might as well bring Medium back if they are interested in keeping Patricia Arquette and a familiar property on television.

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What do you think of my predictions? Feel free to share your thoughts and predictions below.