Spinoff Stories: Criminal Minds, The Franchise That Never Was

Ranking The Chances of Success of Reboots and Revivals Coming to Paramount Plus

 

CBS Renew/Cancel: ‘Criminal Minds’ Likely to be Renewed + ‘Instinct’ Downgraded

"Criminal Minds" (CBS)

Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All in-season, scripted primetime shows airing on CBS in the 2017-18 season are included in the prediction table below. My predictions are current as of April 24, 2018.

The key to the right indicates the colors associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes current season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows. The shows are ordered by their season averages against other scripted CBS shows.

Rank	Show	Season Low / High /Average	Y2Y Change
1	The Big Bang Theory	2.4 / 4.1 / 2.79	-10%
2	Young Sheldon	1.8 / 3.8 / 2.25	--
3	Mom	1.3 / 1.8 / 1.48	+3%
4	NCIS	1.2 / 1.6 / 1.42	-18%
5	Kevin Can Wait	0.9 / 2.3 / 1.21	-25%
6	Bull	1.0 / 1.3 / 1.19	-17%
7	Life In Pieces	0.9 / 1.3 / 1.14	-10%
8	SEAL Team	0.8 / 1.5 / 1.04	--
9	Man with a Plan	0.8 / 1.1 / 1.01	-19%
10	Me, Myself & I	0.7 / 1.6 / 1.00	--
11	Hawaii Five-0	0.9 / 1.1 / 0.99	-13%
-	Criminal Minds	0.9 / 1.3 / 0.99	-28%
13	S.W.A.T.	0.8 / 1.1 / 0.97	--
-	NCIS: New Orleans	0.8 / 1.1 / 0.97	-18%
-	9JKL	0.7 / 1.5 / 0.97	--
16	NCIS: LA	0.8 / 1.3 / 0.94	-28%
17	Blue Bloods	0.8 / 1.1 / 0.92	-26%
18	Superior Donuts	0.8 / 1.0 / 0.91	-22%
-	Wisdom of the Crowd	0.7 / 1.3 / 0.91	--
20	MacGyver	0.8 / 0.9 / 0.85	-21%
21	Instinct	0.6 / 1.3 / 0.88	--
22	Scorpion	0.7 / 1.0 / 0.81	-32%
23	Living Biblically	0.6 / 0.8 / 0.70	--
24	Madam Secretary	0.5 / 0.8 / 0.65	-26%

The table has been updated to reflect the recent renewals for the following series: Mom, NCIS, Bull, SEAL Team, Hawaii Five-0, S.W.A.T., NCIS: New Orleans, NCIS: LA, Blue Bloods, MacGyver, and Madam Secretary. These were correct predictions by the CBS Renew/Cancel.

As of 4/19, Living Biblically has been pulled from the schedule and is effectively cancelled with five episodes unaired. This was a correct prediction. 

Below are two prediction changes in this edition of the CBS R/C. An analysis for each adjustment has been provided.

CRIMINAL MINDS The show has been on the bubble for practically the entire season. It's a tough one to predict, considering that the networks are increasingly unpredictable with what they're willing to keep. Some shows that seem like they should be relieved of duty are just not to that point as far as the network heads are concerned. I previously decided to lean into a cancellation for Criminal Minds prior to all the early renewals, but I've since decided to upgrade it to a likely renewal. While it's likely to be the veteran series to end first due to its age, declining ratings, costs, and lack of full net ownership, it's still a respectable player that has done OK in its move to 10. As the season's gone on, its stability in the 0.9-1.0 range doesn't look horrible, especially since none of their new dramas (SEAL Team and S.W.A.T., specifically) have managed to regularly rate above that. It hasn't been moved to a lower priority Friday or Sunday slot at this point, so while the present time slot downgrade suggests CBS is phasing the procedural out, there is room for alternative scheduling before it's completely off the air. CBS can probably do better with cheaper alternatives going forward (especially on Wednesdays), but a 14th season that sends the series off with over 300 episodes might be just what CBS and ABC Studios are capable of negotiating. They frankly don't have to do anything for the show -- in fact, the network failed to give "final seasons" to past long-running dramas -- but some of them weren't around for as long as Criminal Minds. CSI is probably the most comparable series in this situation, and that iconic show at least had a movie to wrap things up (as much as you can "wrap up" for a crime procedural). Something tells me that CBS knows they could've prepared better for CSI's end, and they'll do a bit better with Criminal Minds. That might mean a reduced order for the last season, but they can find a way to air it if it's worth producing and ensures a smooth transition into CBS's next chapter post-Minds.

My reluctance to promote a renewal prediction throughout the current season has been, perhaps, tied up in my thinking that CBS has to end something soon. Criminal Minds always seemed like a fair candidate (and it is, no doubt) because of the reasons I've already mentioned, in addition to its inability to launch successful spinoffs like NCIS has achieved. It's in a vulnerable position where the network could truly take it or leave it, so I don't think my general pessimism has been unwarranted with that in mind. Ultimately, CBS didn't end any veterans last year, though they did send Code Black and Elementary to summer. This pretty much says that while they still need slots on the fall schedule for new shows, they don't really need to cancel much in order to make that happen. Criminal Minds could be held until midseason, as could Scorpion and/or Madam Secretary. It's doable, or at least CBS would probably think as much and navigate that scheduling when the deadline hits. Whether or not it makes financial sense for CBS to keep all these shows is another question altogether, but it's nearly impossible to predict how negotiations for Criminal Minds will go when it's consistently down to the wire between the network and studios involved. The positive it's looking at is that cast contracts for the original actors seem to be good to go for a Season 14, which should make talks somewhat easier. As such, I'm leaning into a renewal at this point, but a cancellation would be far from a surprise. 
INSTINCT The show is simply too weak to return in a priority slot next season. Through five airings, it's averaged a 0.88 rating in the demo, including two recent 0.6 performances without sports/event exposure. CBS has renewed soft midseason shows before, but the ones that come to mind had support from existing franchises (CSI: Cyber and Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders) in addition to strong international potential. Instinct really doesn't boast the same kind of package, and CBS doesn't need it. The only reason it might stand a chance is if it's internally liked to an irrational degree, but based on ratings performance, its late-in-the-game scheduling, and CBS's two freshman drama renewals, it's likely to be cancelled. 

CBS Renew/Cancel: ‘Superior Donuts’ & ‘Criminal Minds’ Updated, ‘Instinct’ Debuts

"Superior Donuts" | CBS

Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All in-season, scripted primetime shows airing on CBS in the 2017-18 season are included in the prediction table below. My predictions are current as of March 23, 2018.

The key to the right indicates the colors associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes current season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows. The shows are ordered by their season averages against other scripted CBS shows.

Rank	Show	Season Low / High /Average	Y2Y Change
1	The Big Bang Theory	2.5 / 4.1 / 2.87	-7%
2	Young Sheldon	1.8 / 3.8 / 2.34	--
3	Mom	1.4 / 1.8 / 1.50	+5%
4	NCIS	1.2 / 1.6 / 1.44	-16%
5	Kevin Can Wait	1.0 / 2.3 / 1.25	-22%
6	Bull	1.0 / 1.3 / 1.20	-16%
7	Life In Pieces	1.1 / 1.3 / 1.17	-7%
8	SEAL Team	0.8 / 1.5 / 1.05	--
9	Man with a Plan	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.03	-17%
10	S.W.A.T.	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.01	--
11	Hawaii Five-0	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.00	-12%
-	Instinct	- / 1.0 / 1.00	--
-	Me, Myself & I	0.7 / 1.6 / 1.00	--
14	Criminal Minds	0.9 / 1.3 / 0.99	-29%
-	NCIS: New Orleans	0.9 / 1.1 / 0.99	-16%
16	9JKL	0.7 / 1.5 / 0.97	--
17	NCIS: LA	0.8 / 1.3 / 0.95	-27%
18	Blue Bloods	0.8 / 1.1 / 0.94	-24%
19	Superior Donuts	0.8 / 1.0 / 0.93	-21%
20	Wisdom of the Crowd	0.7 / 1.3 / 0.91	--
21	MacGyver	0.8 / 0.9 / 0.86	-20%
22	Scorpion	0.7 / 1.0 / 0.83	-30%
23	Living Biblically	0.7 / 0.8 / 0.73	--
24	Madam Secretary	0.6 / 0.8 / 0.66	-25%

CRIMINAL MINDS The reasons for the show's uncertain fate have been written and explored time and again: it's old, expensive, co-owned, and has had to endure cast shake-ups in the past few years. Its move to 10pm this season accelerated its y2y decline, and while it's averaging an OK 1.0 rating in the slot, it's not bringing much weight to the night anymore. SEAL Team is arguably wasting the potential in Criminal Minds' previous 9pm slot, but there's reason to believe that CBS will want to protect its 100% owned, highest rated freshman drama, and #3 drama over the aging veteran. They need space on the schedule and this would be a reasonable cancellation to make if the costs are just too high for what they're getting out of a 13 year old show. The argument could be made that it deserves a sendoff season, though CBS isn't notorious for providing that treatment. Complicated negotiations with ABC Studios will likely leave the show off of CBS's early renewal radar, but for the purposes of making a more definitive prediction away from the bubble, I have it as Likely to be Canceled at this time. 
SUPERIOR DONUTS What's clear is that CBS needs to improve their Mondays going forward. Kevin Can Wait and Man with a Plan are the strongest players on the night from 8-9 and are expected to be around for awhile. The revolving door of new comedies, including 9JKL, Living Biblically, and Me, Myself & I are not. While the Monday comedies are not really anchor-worthy, Superior Donuts is least qualified for that heavy lifting. To be fair, it's only down a tenth or two from the 8-9 block on any given week, but it's failing to make any sophomore gains (it's down 21% y2y) even with a fall start and a full season to play out at the top of an hour. It'll count 34 episodes by the end of the season, which is easily within the range of a painless cancellation. As for CBS's other comedies, Young Sheldon is the comedy breakout CBS needed to develop this year. The Big Bang Theory, Mom, and Life In Pieces are expected back, and that's all the network needs. CBS has made some interesting choices in the past, such as renewing The Odd Couple twice. Something similar could happen to Superior Donuts, but at this point it doesn't seem worth CBS's while to drag another low-rated sitcom to syndication. The quality of their pilots could be the determining factor, and that's not for me to try to predict. From what I see, it's Likely to be Canceled at this time. 
INSTINCT Since it's aired only one episode so far, Instinct is firmly on the bubble. Its 1.0 premiere rating is fine, but it is likely to fall from this data point going forward as we've seen in the past. S.W.A.T. is probably the safest newbie, with SEAL Team fighting and Instinct yet to prove itself as a contender. CBS has renewed midseason shows in the past, though the ones that come to mind were spinoffs (CSI: Cyber and Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders). It shouldn't be included in a batch of early renewals, so I feel comfortable leaving it On the Bubble for now.

CBS Renew/Cancel: ‘Living Biblically’ Faces Certain Death

Jay R. Ferguson | CBS

Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All in-season, scripted primetime shows airing on CBS in the 2017-18 season are included in the prediction table below. My predictions are current as of March 12, 2018.

The key to the right indicates the colors associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes current season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows. The shows are ordered by their season averages against other scripted CBS shows.

Rank	Show	Season Low / High /Average	Y2Y Change
1	The Big Bang Theory	2.5 / 4.1 / 2.87	+3%
2	Young Sheldon	1.8 / 3.8 / 2.33	--
3	Mom	1.4 / 1.8 / 1.50	+5%
4	NCIS	1.2 / 1.6 / 1.44	-16%
5	Kevin Can Wait	1.1 / 2.3 / 1.27	-21%
6	Bull	1.0 / 1.3 / 1.19	-17%
7	Life In Pieces	1.1 / 1.3 / 1.17	-7%
8	SEAL Team	0.9 / 1.5 / 1.06	--
9	Man with a Plan	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.05	-15%
10	Hawaii Five-0	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.00	-12%
-	S.W.A.T.	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.00	--
-	Criminal Minds	0.9 / 1.3 / 1.00	-28%
-	Me, Myself & I	0.7 / 1.6 / 1.00	--
14	NCIS: New Orleans	0.9 / 1.1 / 0.99	-16%
15	9JKL	0.7 / 1.5 / 0.97	--
16	NCIS: LA	0.8 / 1.3 / 0.96	-27%
17	Superior Donuts	0.8 / 1.0 / 0.94	-19%
-	Blue Bloods	0.8 / 1.1 / 0.94	-24%
19	Wisdom of the Crowd	0.7 / 1.3 / 0.91	--
20	MacGyver	0.8 / 0.9 / 0.86	-20%
21	Scorpion	0.7 / 1.0 / 0.83	-30%
22	Living Biblically	0.7 / 0.8 / 0.75	--
23	Madam Secretary	0.6 / 0.8 / 0.67	-23%

LIVING BIBLICALLY It's not a surprise that the midseason series tanked in its debut. It was never expected to be in a position to succeed, as CBS's Mondays are lacking in strength under Kevin Can Wait and Man with a Plan's leadership, as well as the fact that midseason runs tend to be rough. With a 0.8 and 0.7 across two airings, the religious sitcom is already certain to be cancelled. There's no upside to its dismal performance, especially for an unowned show that is merely continuing a terrible 9:30 trend. It always seemed like its order was mostly a favor to The Big Bang Theory's Johnny Galecki, who EPs the Warner Bros. production, so the loss doesn't seem significant. Moreover, Superior Donuts is the favorite fractional sitcom that stands a chance to make it out of this season alive, and even that is very far from a sure thing. 
With the expectation of early CBS renewals coming soon, new predictions will be made for Superior Donuts and Criminal Minds in the next edition of the CBS R/C.