NBC Renew/Cancel Week 10: This Thanksgiving, NBC is Thankful for Law & Order: SVU

It's a special Monday edition of the NBC Renew/Cancel, as I take a closer look at NBC's Law & Order dramas as the two enter their midseason hiatus. Keep reading to see which one is on the move and which one is staying put as a show firmly on the bubble.

Certain Cancellation:
N/A

Likely Cancellation:

Brilliant Minds (0.15, 0.12-0.18)

Leans Cancellation:
On Brand with Jimmy Fallon (0.17, 0.14-0.22)
Stumble (0.18, 0.17-0.18)

Leans Renewal:
Law & Order (0.21, 0.20-0.27)

Likely Renewal:
Happy's Place (0.25, 0.24-0.25)
St. Denis Medical (0.31, 0.25-0.34)
The Voice (0.34, 0.28-0.42)

Certain Renewal:
Chicago Fire (0.34, 0.29-0.39)
Chicago Med (0.35, 0.28-0.39)
Chicago PD (0.29, 0.25-0.34)
Dateline NBC (0.18, 0.15-0.20)
Law & Order: SVU (0.28, 0.21-0.33)
Saturday Night Live (0.60, 0.58-0.70)

Coming Soon:
The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins
Surviving Earth
The Wall

Law & Order: SVU: With each week, the chances that SVU will end this season fade - and those chances were always quite low to begin. Yes, it has been a troublesome season for the veteran NBC procedural in the ratings department. It hit several new series lows at the beginning of the season, and it's currently down 20% from last year. It's currently rating below the "league average" (0.30, the average rating of all shows on broadcast TV), with a 0.28 average. Seeing SVU as a below-average performer is unusual. It's been six years since we've seen it posting below-average ratings, and those two below-average seasons came during its stint at 10 PM. In recent weeks, though, SVU has rebounded. Since I last discussed it, SVU has gotten back into the 0.3 range, rising from that rough 0.21 to a 0.30 the week after, then rising to a 0.33 the week after. That's still noticeably down from how SVU performed just last season, but it's more in-line with what we're seeing from top-tier dramas on broadcast this season. The truth is that ratings are just not what they used to be, and it's becoming more and more rare for shows to crack that 0.3 mark. Just eighteen shows are averaging above that 0.30 mark this season. SVU managing to rate close to 0.30 in recent weeks is a good sign, and shows that its 0.21 low may just have been a fluke. Even I it wasn't a fluke, though, SVU's multiplatform ratings have been pretty solid. It rates behind the Chicago shows in MP+7 ratings, but the gap between it and the Chicagos does narrow a bit from their linear ratings to their MP+7 ratings, suggesting that SVU is adding more viewers on Peacock. That does track with the Peacock top ten consistently showing SVU as one of the streamer's top shows. It was always an absolute long-shot that SVU would end this season, but I now view that chance as nonexistent. Its linear ratings have improved from the start of the season, it's been confirmed to still be a multiplatform hit, and - as I've always said - it's incredibly unlikely that NBC would cancel such an important show for them (their longest-running primetime series ever) rather than give it a pre-announced sendoff. SVU is upgraded this week to a CERTAIN RENEWAL.

Law & Order: While SVU isn't struggling as much as it was at the beginning, Law & Order continues to underwhelm. It did show a brief glimpse of its former strength by hitting a 0.27 a few weeks ago, but it has consistently been a 0.2 performer otherwise. Only one episode this season has come in above its previous series low, and Law & Order is currently averaging just a 0.22 in the key demo in an 8 PM slot. That's dramatically worse than Chicago Med just a night before, and it's worse than both 8 PM comedies, too. It's NBC's lowest-rated drama outside of Brilliant Minds, and it's a very weak lead-off for a night. It's wasting the local lead-in and doesn't seem to have much of an audience of its own. Its multiplatform gains are incredibly weak as well. We don't have extensive multiplatform data for this season, but for its premiere, it added just 2.38 million viewers in MP+7 - only about 100,000 more viewers than Brilliant Minds. Last season, it actually had fewer viewers in the MP+35 metric than Brilliant Minds and the Hunting Party (and only 100,000 more viewers than the canceled The Irrational). This show is not a strong performer in any metric at this point, and it's mostly being kept alive by its connections to Dick Wolf. Of course, if you want any creator in your corner at NBC, it's Dick Wolf. The man has given NBC many hits and is responsible for the only dramas on their current lineup that are successful. Law & Order itself was also very successful back in the day, but it dropped pretty significantly by the end of its first run, and it's mirroring that now. I would expect NBC to move it to 10 PM before they cancel it outright, especially since there are several other hour-long shows one NBC that are likely on the chopping block before Law & Order. But it's probably approaching the end of its run, and NBC should begin preparing a new plan for Thursday nights soon. It LEANS RENEWAL, because it's performing poorly enough for another "shock" cancellation to remain a distinct possibility.

Interactive Schedule:

The TV Ratings Guide	8:00	8:30	9:00	10:00
Mon	St. Denis Medical	The Paper	The Voice	Brilliant Minds
Tues	NBA on NBC
Wed	Chicago Med		Chicago Fire	Chicago PD
Thurs	Law & Order		Law & Order: SVU	Law & Order: Organized Crime
Fri	Happy's Place	Stumble	Dateline NBC
Sat	College Football on NBC
Sun	Sunday Night Football