This week on the CBS Renew/Cancel, one series earns a prediction upgrade, while one of their biggest hits, their new Friday night franchise, and a struggling lineup also get time in the spotlight.
Prediction Key:
Week 3 Predictions:
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| Shows' 18-49 demo average and weekly peak performance on Paramount+ are listed in parenthesis |
NCIS: The Tuesday night NCIS lineup has one thing working for it, and it's NCIS itself. The longest-running scripted series on CBS is one of their highest-rated series as well, ranking fifth among fifteen scripted shows. There has been a noticeable decline in it ratings, but it's been a smaller drop than just about everything else on CBS, with only Tracker posting a better year-to-year comparison. Part of that can be explained by NCIS moving back to an 8 PM slot on the night it spent nearly two decades leading, but it's still a positive trend worth pointing out. It's especially notable when the shows airing behind it are obviously faltering. NCIS's 0.3s may not look that impressive, especially considering how high we'd see it rating just a few seasons ago. However, it's the sort of sturdy, stable performer that CBS needs, especially in a time where several of their younger shows (and even a veteran like FBI) are in a state of seeming free-fall. NCIS is also one of the top streaming hits on Paramount+, one of the few CBS shows (along with Ghosts and, to a lesser extent, Tracker) to consistently chart in their top ten, even in times when it's not airing new episodes. NCIS is a major cash cow for CBS, enough to offset the expenses that come with producing a show that's now in its twenty-third season. This is a solid and valuable lead-in that CBS could use to boost promising new shows, even though it's currently being wasted on struggling performers. It's upgraded this week to a likely renewal, with the show just being too far into its run for an upgrade to certain renewal, given CBS's recent history of axing long-running veterans with solid ratings for the sake of cost.
NCIS: Origins and NCIS: Sydney: It's worth noting again that an NCIS night is not an inherently bad idea. It's the sort of thing that likely would've worked very well for CBS five or more years ago, when they had some stronger spinoffs. But Origins and Sydney weren't the shows to help an all-NCIS night live up to its promise. They're both failing to live up to the solid lead-in they're provided, which should theoretically be very compatible, as it is their parent series. This block just doesn't feel cohesive. Retention is poor throughout the night, and Origins is CBS's lowest-rated 9 PM scripted series, despite NCIS being one of their highest-rated series.NCIS was up last week despite competition from. the World Series, all while Origins was down for the second week in a row. It's now just a single hundredth above the series low it achieved while airing at 10 PM in December 2024. While it would likely have been rating lower at 10 PM, given the current state of other 10 PM series on CBS, Origins should be holding up better year-to-year after getting a clear-cut time slot upgrade. Sydney, while performing worse, can at least point to the fact that it had always previously aired at 8 PM before this season, so dropping as much as it has is a bit easier to justify.. The streaming performance of Origins is also concerning, with the show failing to make an appearance on Paramount+'s streaming chart since its season two premiere. Sydney has never charted this season, which is in-line with its season two performance (its low costs and OK same-day ratings were enough to offset it). Really, CBS just has a clear problem on its hands with this Tuesday lineup. They slapped these NCIS shows together because it was the easy move, but it's just tanked the entire night. They have two-thirds of the night pulling cancellation-worthy ratings after several years so Tuesday being a solid night or them. It seems that something is going to have to change next season to breathe new life back into Tuesdays. Canceling both series would free up a lot of scheduling space for CBS and allow some fluidity in their schedule, but CBS loves a good brand and has been very clear about that - especially one they own (sorry, FBIs). For that reason, I'd currently guess that CBS takes pity on one of their two struggling NCISes. I'm betting that that will be NCIS: Origins, which had might higher multiplatform ratings than Sydney last season, though Sydney is certainly the more cost-effective option. Origins continues to cling to a leans renewal prediction for now, and Sydney remains a leans cancellation prediction. Multiplatform ratings may change one or both of these predictions once they arrive.
Fire Country and Sheriff Country: It's been a bit off a mixed bag so far for CBS's burgeoning Friday night franchise. We only really have one week's worth of ratings for these two as individual shows in their regular time slots. Sheriff County, airing at the earlier 8 PM hour, hit a 0.23 in its time slot debut. That's up from its series premiere, but down from what Fire Country got in the slot the week before. Fire Country hit a series low 0.19 last week, down more than a point from the week before, down from Sheriff Country's performance in that slot the week before, and dropping from its lead-in. They did air against game one of the World Series, so I do want to wait before truly assessing their linear strength, even though most shows held up pretty well against the Fall Classic this year. Sheriff is not disastrous, at least, but it's not major linear ratings success, and neither is Fire Country this year. The Friday lineup as a whole is off to sort of a bland start: unexciting ratings, neither great nor horrible by the lower standards of Friday nights. What is interesting, though, is that both Fire Country and Sheriff Country are both doing quite well on Paramount+. Fire Country has always performed well on Paramount+, but Sheriff saw a vast improvement in its streaming performance for its second week. We don't know the multiplatform ratings for these shows yet, but middling linear ratings isn't enough to put either of them in much danger at all, and it's not enough to rule out a further expansion to the franchise either, if their streaming performances hold up. Sheriff Country is a likely renewal, and Fire Country is a certain renewal.
Tracker: Perhaps the brightest of the very few bright spots for CBS this season is Tracker. Tracker being a hit is not news, but the fact that it's holding up so well must have caused a huge sigh of relief for CBS. It's up 1% from last season so far, the best trend of any show on CBS. It's also far and away their #1 scripted show, averaging a full tenth (and change) above #2 show Ghosts. Yes, Tracker did have NFL help in week two, but this is a show that really doesn't benefit that much from that lead-in, because it has a dedicated core audience that tunes in regardless. It rose less than a tenth despite a lead-in that more than doubled, and actually slipped a bit in total viewers (and still drawing more than two million viewers more than any other CBS show besides 60 Minutes). Tracker is a hit, a natural one, and for the most part, an original one. It's not based on any other CBS property, it's not inspired by classic literature characters or any popular movies, it's not even an international adaptation. It's based on a fairly recent book series that wasn't at all guaranteed to draw viewers in simply based on its IP. Tracker is proof that it may still be worth it to deviate from the norm a bit and bring stories to broadcast TV that haven't already been explored, even if they're from outside studios (in this case, 20th TV). One day, perhaps when the ratings have cooled down, not being owned by CBS will likely be a problem for Tracker - being outside productions certainly didn't help The Equalizer or the FBI spinoffs last year. However, that is years down the line. This is a show still early in its run and at the top of its game. It has nothing to worry about. It's a certain renewal.
| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | The Neighborhood | DMV | FBI | Watson | |
| Tues | NCIS | NCIS: Origins | NCIS: Sydney | ||
| Wed | Survivor | The Amazing Race | |||
| Thurs | Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage | Ghosts | Matlock | Elsbeth | |
| Fri | Sheriff Country | Fire Country | Boston Blue | ||
| Sun | Tracker | The Road | Encores | ||
