Certain Cancellation:
N/A
Likely Cancellation:
The Golden Bachelor (0.19, 0.16-0.28)
Leans Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Renewal:
Shifting Gears (0.34, 0.31-0.38)
Likely Renewal:
9-1-1 (0.33, 0.30-0.35)
9-1-1: Nashville (0.27, 0.23-0.29)
Celebrity Wheel of Fortune (0.25, 0.15-0.31)
Grey's Anatomy (0.23, 0.18-0.27)
Shark Tank (0.16, 0.11-0.20)
Certain Renewal:
20/20 (0.17, 0.12-0.20)
Abbott Elementary (0.32, 0.27-0.38)
America's Funniest Home Videos (0.28, 0.25-0.29)
Dancing with the Stars (1.22, 1.02-1.38)
High Potential (0.34, 0.28-0.42)
Coming Soon:
American Idol
The Bachelorette
Celebrity Jeopardy!
The Great Christmas Light Fight
RJ Decker
The Rookie
Scrubs
Will Trent
Abbott Elementary: After a strong season last year, Abbott Elementary returned in fairly disappointing shape. It debuted with a 0.29 in the demo, down 22% from last season's opener despite its lead-in being a comedy (rather than an entirely incompatible dating show) that was a half-tenth higher in the ratings. It was down to a near-series low 0.27 the week after, and while that wasn't going to be enough to get it canceled, it looked like it may be starting to lose its linear ratings shine. I started it as only a likely renewal out of a combination of somewhat-underwhelming ratings and hints from Quinta Brunson that the end could be a bit closer than we excepted, largely due to the cast not wanting to get stuck on the show for too long. After all, if the cast doesn't want to stay locked down and the ratings aren't strong enough to warrant begging them to stay, maybe it's best to just end it. That was always very unlikely to happen this season, but if it kept dropping, perhaps it was possible. Things have been on the right track ever since then, though. Abbott jumped more than a tenth the week after that 0.27, and while it hasn't matched that 0.38 rating since, it's been above the 0.30 mark for four straight episodes now. Its retention from Shifting Gears has also improved after the premiere, and while it has yet to rise from the show like it often did last season, the two shows are a strong 8 PM block for ABC. A bigger boost for its renewal odds is the confirmation that it's still doing very well in delayed ratings. Its premiere drew a 1.9 in the 18-49 demo in MP+7 ratings, only down 12% from last year's premiere (a notably smaller drop than it saw in L+SD, and a better year-to-year trend than 9-1-1). It's not among ABC's most-watched shows in MP+7, and that is generally a more important factor when it comes to multiplatform than it is in L+SD. It is important to note that it's actually up half a million viewers from last year's premiere in MP+7. It also added more viewers in multiplatform viewing than the older-skewing Shifting Gears or the massive hit Dancing with the Stars (which isn't a shock - reality competition shows tend to over-perform in L+SD compared to their MP+7 ratings), and was fairly close to the gains made by the Thursday dramas, too. This show has always cultivated a younger, streaming-friendly audience, and it continues to perform well in that metric. ABC has always been happy with its performance, and it's doing well enough, and is still early enough in its run, that I don't see any reason to believe this is where the show will be expelled from ABC's school. It's a CERTAIN RENEWAL.
9-1-1: Nashville: 9-1-1: Nashville is not a breakout hit so far, but it's proven to be a pretty solid entry for ABC this year. Its 0.26 average is just south of 80% retention from its parent show, which isn't anything spectacular, but it's okay enough. The show has been fairly stable, rating in the 0.23-0.29 range. That's better than Doctor Odyssey, which started with a stronger 0.40 premiere rating last season and had already sunk to 0.22 by its own fifth episode, with a stronger 9-1-1 as its lead-in. I'm not yet convinced that Nashville is bound to have a run as long and successful as 9-1-1 or even Lone Star, but none off the data we've seen so far suggests it's in much trouble at all. Disney clearly wants a new Ryan Murphy show to work for them, given how many times ABC and sister streamer Hulu have debuted new shows from him since he came back to the company after his Netflix deal. He's seemingly had some decent performers for Hulu, but his first proper ABC debut (not counting the established hit 9-1-1) was a total bust. Nashville is looking solid enough that it doesn't even need a save-face renewal. These are renewal numbers in the linear ratings, and its multiplatform debut saw it matching 9-1-1, which is a promising start. It seems to be only narrowly underperforming 9-1-1 on Hulu as of late, while Doctor Odyssey didn't even really come close to matching 9-1-1 on streaming by this point in its first season. ABC seems to have found a solid Thursday night lineup, and given the age of the two shows bookending the night, the young Nashville is sitting pretty. It retains the likely renewal prediction it's had since its initial debut on the Renew/Cancel.
Interactive Schedule:
| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | Monday Night Football | |||||
| Tues | Dancing with the Stars | High Potential | ||||
| Wed | Shifting Gears | Abbott Elementary | The Golden Bachelor | Shark Tank | ||
| Thurs | 9-1-1 | 9-1-1: Nashville | Grey's Anatomy | |||
| Fri | Celebrity Wheel of Fortune | 20/20 | ||||
| Sat | Saturday Night Football | |||||
| Sun | The Wonderful World of Disney | |||||
Renewed
Certain Renew
Likely Renew
Leans Renew
Leans Cancel
Likely Cancel
Certain Cancel
Canceled
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week below!
