This week on the Summer Renew/Cancel, a show that's gone without any discussion finally gets its time in the spotlight, while I take another look at one of this summer's most recent premieres.
Certain to be Canceled:
The Fixer (Fox) (0.07, 0.05-0.08)
The Great North (Fox) (0.13, 0.11-0.16)
Raid the Cage (CBS) (0.18, 0.16-0.22)
Likely to be Canceled:
The Snake (Fox) (0.12, 0.10-0.14)
Survival Mode (NBC) (0.14, 0.12-0.16)
Yes, Chef! (NBC) (0.14, 0.11-0.19)
Leans Cancellation:
Big Brother: Unlocked (CBS) (0.18)
Leans Renewal:
Bachelor in Paradise (ABC) (0.25, 0.20-0.31)
Destination X (NBC) (0.23, 0.17-0.30)
Match Game (ABC) (0.31, 0.28-0.37)
Press Your Luck (ABC) (0.28, 0.22-0.33)
Likely to be Renewed:
The 1% Club (Fox) (0.19, 0.17-0.21)
Gordon Ramsay's Secret Service (Fox) (0.21, 0.19-0.25)
The Quiz with Balls (Fox) (0.19, 0.16-0.21)
Who Wants to Be a Millionaire (ABC) (0.36, 0.33-0.38)
Certain to be Renewed:
America's Got Talent (NBC) (0.40, 0.31-0.48)
Big Brother (CBS) (0.59, 0.53-0.69)
Celebrity Family Feud (ABC) (0.36, 0.29-0.42)
MasterChef (Fox) (0.22, 0.17-0.28)
American Ninja Warrior (NBC) (Renewed)
Coming Soon:
America's Got Talent: It has not been a banner year for America's Got Talent. The long-running summer hit has hit a few new series lows this year for Tuesday performance shows, dropping 14% in all after already dropping 20% the last few seasons. Despite those new lows, though, this is actually its best year-to-year trend since season 12, back in 2017. It's been easily surpassed by Big Brother as the summer's top show, with that show actually rising year-to-year after a more narrow margin of defeat over AGT last season. AGT is no longer the definitive summer powerhouse, and that's okay. It's still a great asset for NBC, which has no better options in the summer. While American Ninja Warrior keeps the lights on, it's mostly just been an OK performer for its entire run, and anything else NBC tries in the summer has failed to stick. AGT is the tentpole of their summer lineup, and one of the few summer shows across all of the networks that you can consistently call a hit. It's not even just a hit by summer standards, AGT is rating well enough to be NBC's #2 show for the season overall - only behind the fall run of The Voice. Even if some of these 0.3s are a bit jarring to see, it's hard to imagine NBC was expecting anything more than a 0.40 average from it. It is, of course, a CERTAIN RENEWAL.
Match Game: After an underwhelming week two drop, Match Game held up well in week three, holding steady at 0.28. This was despite its Millionaire lead-in dropping half a tenth, improving its retention from 74% to 85% in one week. It's still clearly weaker than it was on premiere night, but that's to be expected. It has at least five more episodes left to air, and that's the reason I'm still holding off on a prediction upgrade. This is an encouraging sign, but it has plenty of time to slide from here on. That being said, ABC is repeating it on the regular, which generally indicates that they're high on the show. If it can maintain this level of solid ratings, or really just avoid slipping too far below the other game shows, it's going to be fine. It remains in the LEANS RENEWAL for now, but things definitely are looking up.
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!
