Two ABC game shows take the spotlight on this week of the Summer Renew/Cancel, as I give my first take on Match Game and update the renewal odds of one of their other summer game shows. Keep reading to see what's on the move this week!
Certain to be Canceled:
The Fixer (Fox) (0.07, 0.06-0.08)
The Great North (Fox) (0.13, 0.11-0.16)
Raid the Cage (CBS) (0.18, 0.16-0.22)
Likely to be Canceled:
The Snake (Fox) (0.12, 0.10-0.14)
Survival Mode (NBC) (0.14, 0.12-0.16)
Yes, Chef! (NBC) (0.14, 0.11-0.19)
Leans Cancellation:
Big Brother: Unlocked (CBS) (0.18)
Leans Renewal:
Bachelor in Paradise (ABC) (0.25, 0.20-0.31)
Destination X (NBC) (0.23, 0.17-0.30)
Match Game (ABC) (0.33, 0.28-0.37)
Press Your Luck (ABC) (0.28, 0.24-0.33)
Likely to be Renewed:
The 1% Club (Fox) (0.19, 0.17-0.21)
Gordon Ramsay's Secret Service (Fox) (0.21, 0.19-0.25)
The Quiz with Balls (Fox) (0.19, 0.16-0.21)
Who Wants to Be a Millionaire (ABC) (0.38)
Certain to be Renewed:
America's Got Talent (NBC) (0.39, 0.31-0.48)
Big Brother (CBS) (0.59, 0.53-0.69)
Celebrity Family Feud (ABC) (0.38, 0.34-0.42)
MasterChef (Fox) (0.23, 0.17-0.28)
Fate Determined:
American Ninja Warrior (NBC) (Renewed)
American Ninja Warrior (NBC) (Renewed)
Bob's Burgers (Fox) (Renewed)
Family Guy (Fox) (Renewed)
Grimsburg (Fox) (Renewed)
LEGO Masters (Fox) (Renewed)
Coming Soon:
Coming Soon:
Songs and Stories with Kelly Clarkson (NBC)
Match Game: Two weeks ago, ABC brought back its hyped revival of Match Game, fronted by comedy legend Martin Short. It came just four years after the show's most successful iteration since the 70s, hosted by Alec Baldwin, came to an end. That show was always, at best, a solid performer. Never a hit, but usually decent enough for the late slots it was placed in. Things really began to unravel towards the end, and it ended on a 0.29 in the key demo (a bit over half of that season's league average). Four years later, with ratings heavily down across the board, it returned nearly a tenth higher, an impressive result. 0.38 is one of the higher premieres we've seen this season, and it's one of the few times we've seen this show rate above the league average (when comparing its demo rating to their respective seasons' league averages, this is actually a stronger premiere than its 1.5 premiere back in 2016, though that one aired at 10 PM). It was definitely an encouraging debut, and with another solid game show airing before it, it looked like ABC found a solid and compatible Wednesday night duo. Despite that, my initial prediction for it was a cautious one, as I suspected many were sampling it due to the promotion and its new host, and that a lot of those viewers wouldn't stick around long-term. These ABC game shows have a habit of dropping a decent amount over the course of the summer, so I didn't want to get too ambitious.
That being said, I was expecting to upgrade this show pretty quickly. Its week two rating will prevent that for the time being. It dropped about what I would expect, but it looked a lot worse, thanks to Millionaire managed to hold 100% of its audience. As such, it went from 97% retention to 74% retention in one week. Its 0.28 week two rating is still fine for any summer show, so if it stays here, it is going to be fine. But I want to make sure it doesn't keep dropping into dangerous territory before I upgrade it, so it continues to LEAN RENEWAL.
Press Your Luck: Press Your Luck has had an odd season so far. It premiered to a 0.30 behind a 0.42 from Celebrity Family Feud. As Feud dropped eight hundredths the next week, Press Your Luck rose four hundredths. Feud rose the next week, and Luck sunk to a 0.26. The next week, the two were finally on the same page, as they both dropped - though Feud's drop was more pronounced. In all, the two don't seem to be all that compatible, even though they seem like they should work well together. For this stretch of episodes, Press Your Luck is averaging 74% retention Family Feud, which is OK, but probably not what ABC was hoping for when they paired two of their strongest game shows together. I am beginning to question just how safe Press Your Luck is. As I mentioned in my initial write-up for the show, it has been about a year since it last filmed episodes, as these episodes were taped as part of its sixth season, which debuted last summer. This has not always been a sign of doom for ABC game shows. For example, Pyramid went a similar amount of time without filming new episodes, and then showed back up on the schedule in the plum post-Idol slot on Sundays. My concern is that Press Your Luck's ratings haven't given ABC a reason to get it back into production after over a year. These ratings are still acceptable, and aren't really that much worse than a lot of their other summer shows, but we've seen ABC scrap summer shows with perfectly acceptable ratings many times over the last few years, as they begin to majorly cut back on how many shows they air in the summer. A positive sign for the show is how often ABC is repeating it. It's running repeats weekly at 10 PM (and those do just fine for 10 PM repeats of a game show that doesn't do that well to begin with), and will air repeats at 9 PM once it's aired the remainder of its new episodes in a few weeks. It wouldn't shock me to see it go away after this run, even if I don't think it would really deserve that cancellation, but I am expecting it to return at some point. It's down to LEANS RENEWAL this week and it'll probably stay there.
American Ninja Warrior: Earlier today, it was announced that NBC had picked up their long-running Monday night reality competition series for an eighteenth season. While I hadn't discussed this show at all this season, as it hasn't given me much to write about due to its consistently decent ratings, it's been a certain renewal from the start of the season, and is a hit for me.
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!
