|
Final Season |
Certain to be Canceled |
Likely to be Canceled |
Toss Up |
Likely to be Renewed |
Certain to be Renewed |
|
Beauty and the Beast |
iZombie |
Crazy Ex-Girlfriend |
The 100 |
Jane the Virgin |
Arrow |
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Reign |
DC’s Legends of Tomorrow |
|
|
|
|
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The Vampire Diaries (F) |
Supernatural |
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The Flash |
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|
|
|
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The Originals (F) |
Prediction Changes from Last Time:
Crazy Ex-Girlfriend downgraded from a "Toss Up" to "Likely to be Canceled".
The Vampire Diaries upgraded from a "Toss Up" to "Likely to be Renewed".
Why is Crazy Ex-Girlfriend Likely to be Canceled?
Crazy Ex-Girlfriend is on a downward slope. After two 0.4s, it came down to earth. Although I still think that the CW would break the partial backorder = canceled rule eventually, I don't think it will happen this season. It has the lowest A18-49 ratings average of the entire network. That alone is what caused the network to pull a Melrose Place and give it a partial backorder. That was before Rachel Bloom won both a Golden Globe and a Critics' Choice Award. It's also not covered by Netflix. As much as I would hope for a renewal, a partial backorder, low ratings, and the Netflix deal are factors that will ultimately outweigh awards buzz, signaling likely cancelation.
Why is The Vampire Diaries Likely to be Renewed?
Friday shows typically get renewed at lower relative ratings levels then can shows that are on the Monday-Thursday lineup. Sorry, anti-fans. A 0.4 A18-49 rating is pretty good for Friday standards. Hence, Reign has moved to Mondays to finish its 18 episode run in April with lower ratings than The Vampire Diaries. Keep in mind, Reign is a CBS show that is likely to get a fourth season for syndication and streaming purposes.
The Vampire Diaries, along with The Originals and The 100, are coproduced by Warner Bros. and CBS. This is another case where CBS affirmative action is in play.
There are people in the fandom that are making ridiculous claims that The Vampire Diaries is on a ratings freefall based on the number of total viewers. Today, Bill Gorman (aka TV Grim Reaper) rightfully pointed out on Twitter that total viewers do not matter. This is a case where I have to cite Harry's Law. PR talk buzzed about Harry's Law being number one in total viewers, but the A18-49 demo was too low for NBC to sustain it, and it was canceled after two seasons. News flash, the A18-49 ratings matter to advertisers and to networks. Therefore, The Vampire Diaries is likely to be renewed.
In Other News
Supernatural is still certain to be renewed. I just decided to put the show back in its previous position.
What do you think about the predictions? Let me know in the comments below!
