Ratings Premiere Predictions: Brooklyn 9-9 and The Last Man On Earth

Finally, the last Ratings Premiere Predictions segment about Sunday shows. I figured it would be fitting to post them on such a day. Here goes:

Brooklyn 9-9

Network: FOX

Time Slot: Sunday at 8:30

Competition: NFL Football, Madam Secretary, Once Upon A Time

Lead-in: The Simpsons

Lead-out: Family Guy

2015 Finale: 1.1 A18-49

2014 Premiere: 2.6 A18-49 

2013 Premiere: 2.6  A18-49 (Tuesday series premiere)

Ok, so Brooklyn 9-9 isn't exactly lead-in independent. Going into this season, FOX really had nothing else in the live-action comedy department with potential to grow, so naturally they gave it a time slot upgrade. But I also consider this time slot upgrade to be a downgrade for both Bob's Burgers, which was relegated to the 7pm hour, and Family Guy, which was cursed with a very incompatible lead-in in terms of style. Anyways, what looks to be a breakout sophomore hit in the fall turned into FOX's failed project by the spring. In the long run, The Simpsons did not help it out, and it didn't exactly help its fellow Sunday shows out either. Despite seeing some very high numbers in the fall, very few of them stuck around when it wasn't inflated by The Simpsons, which in turn was inflated by football. This can be seen that its season 2 is somehow down from its 2014, Tuesday finale, which had a 1.3 A18-49 rating.

But it has football in its favor again, so I can't be too pessimistic here, even though I think it would have been smarter to air Bob's Burgers, Bordertown, or even The Last Man On Earth (which does have potential to grow) here.

Range: 1.7-2.9

Prediction: 2.2

The Last Man On Earth

Network: FOX

Time Slot: Sunday at 9:30

Competition: NFL Football, The Good Wife, Blood and Oil, various cable

Lead-in: Family Guy

Lead-out: None

2015 S1 Finale: 1.4 A18-49

2015 S1 Premiere: 2.4 A18-49 

I truly think that The Last Man On Earth has a chance to grow into a hit next season. FOX is streaming the entire first season, which ended on a massive cliffhanger, online, and star Will Forte is expected by many to at least be nominated for an Emmy (something rare for a non-cable show not named Modern Family or The Big Bang Theory). Co-star Kristen Schaal is also expected by some to be a dark horse contender. Or they'll just give it to Julia Louis-Dreyfus again. 

Kristen Schaal stars on both The Last Man On Earth and Bob's Burgers, both of which have received terrible scheduling treatment this season. FOX announced that the former was to air after Family Guy, but in the first part of the series almost never gave it such a lead-in. Instead, they would double up on episodes, making it look like a burnoff. Many people did not expect much coming into the show, which could explain why everything in the first season was so fast-paced. But with it guaranteed that The Last Man On Earth is getting paired with Family Guy for its season premiere, I expect numbers much higher than it left us on. Despite having a harder time slot, I can see The Last Man On Earth edging out Brooklyn 9-9.

Range: 1.8-2.6

Prediction: 2.3

Ratings Premiere Predictions: CSI:Cyber and CSI

CSI: Cyber

Network: CBS

Time Slot: Sunday at 10

Competition: NFL Football, Quantico

Lead-in: The Good Wife

Lead-out: None

CSI: Cyber was reportedly only renewed due to significant overseas syndication potential. This is all due to the CSI name—in other words, if the show was created and produced by different people and simply called Cyber, it probably would not have been renewed. And if it was not produced by CBS, it definately wouldn't have been renewed. Just look at what happened to Stalker. But alas, CBS decided to give this big-named show a short first season after Criminal Minds, where its mothership show rated in the high 1s just recently in 2013-2014. However, Cyber only managed lower 1s. Just like CSI was moved into the Sunday at 10 time slot in 2014-2015, CSI:Cyber is going there in the fall. CSI collapsed, hitting low 1s throughout most of its run, and I expect CSI:Cyber to do whatever collapsing it has left in the time slot as well.

The Sunday at 10 time slot in the fall is arguably the worst CBS has to offer. By then, the post-football afternoon game bump has gone away, and can actually be argued to be a negative force. This is because many times, the football game will run over into prime time. CSI's time slot last fall might as well have been 10:30pm, because football overruns rarely allowed it to start earlier. Sometimes, football would run so late that CSI would have to be unexpectedly preempted, with the other shows sliding back as far as an hour. One time they were forced to air CSI for scheduling reasons, and as a result aired it at 11pm (like anyone would stay up at 11pm on a Sunday to watch a procedural show live).

Against the predictions of almost everyone out there, CBS renewed CSI:Cyber. They may actually decide to run this one out to syndication, since it appears their new strategy is to get as many of their in-house productions to syndication as humanely possible and in as little time as humanely possible. This show may even venture into the American Odyssey or Battle Creek numbers.

This season CSI premiered to just a 1.3 A18-49 rating (and 9.36 million viewers!), after a 1.9 A18-49 finale in its previous season (and strangely just a small increase in viewers). CSI:Cyber finished its season with a two-hour finale. Both segments hit a 1.2 A18-49 rating, following a 2.3 from Survivor.

Range: 0.7-1.5

Prediction: 0.9

CSI

Network: CBS

Time Slot: Sunday at 9

Competition: NFL Football, Family Guy, The Last Man On Earth, Blood & Oil, Quantico

Lead-in: 60 Minutes

Lead-out: None

Now for CSI. Looking at its past season's numbers, we can't expect much for CSI's series finale. However, regardless of its A18-49 rating, CSI did have a remarkably great run, even having three spinoffs. I see it having a very high viewership though—people who watched it in its earlier seasons who return for the finale are most likely no longer in the 18-49 age demographic. I can genuinely see at least 12 million people tuning in, but I'm not getting my hopes up for its demo rating (as if it matters anymore anyway). Also, I don't think its season/series premiere competition will make much of a dent, considering the lack of an overlapping audience and the event-watch it must be for fans. 

Range: 1.0-2.5

Prediction: 1.8